Sezonalnost suicida u Srbiji, 1990-2012.
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Apstrakt
Ciklične varijacije suicida, a naročito njihova sezonalnost davno je utvrđena, i to u svim delovima sveta. Može se reći da se Srbija u tom pogledu ne izdvaja, mada je u dosadašnjim istraživanjima samoubistva, posebno onim demografskim, temporalnim karakteristikama posvećena mala pažnja. Cilj rada je da se za Srbiju ocene sezonske varijacije u periodu 1990-2012 (evidentirano je ukupno 32.855 suicida), kakvi su trendovi prisutni i sagleda koliko je ta pojava u skladu sa ustanovljenim obrascima u drugim zemljama.
U radu su primenjeni "klasični" statistički metodi ocene cikličnih varijacija (c2-test, Edwardsova procedura), zatim neki skorašnji metodi (peak-low ratio), a uveden je i jedan novi pokazatelj intenziteta mesečnih varijacija suicida (indeks MtMV).
Istraživanjem je utvrđena unimodalna distribucija suicida, s maksimumom u proleće i leto i minimumom u zimu. Po mesecima, najviše samoubistava je u maju, dok je maksimalan prosečan broj samoubistava po danu izračunat za jun (21 % veći od proseka za 1990-2012). Decembar se izdvaja kao mesec s najmanjim brojem i najmanjim dnevnim prosekom samoubistava (25 % manje od proseka). Sezonalnost suicida je jasno izražena tokom čitavog posmatranog perioda, i nisu primećena bitnija kolebanja odnosno smanjenje intenziteta varijacije.
Temporalne karakteristike su razmatrane i po polu, i nisu utvrđene bitnije razlike u cikličnosti suicida kod muškaraca i žena.
Preuzimanja
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Centar za demografska istraživanja Instituta društvenih nauka
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