Mortality Prediction and Demographic Ageing
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Abstract
Since 1970 age at death has much increased. This is greatly due to quick diminishing of old age mortality rates and sheds a new light on the analysis of the probable and possible variations to be expected regarding mortality. Projected numbers of elderly people depend a great deal on the choices made regarding future mortality. When comparing forecasted hypothetical mortality with recent actual achievements it is obvious that a certain amount of pessimism prevails in the forecasts. This prompts us to show greater boldness when forecasting. However, will the present rise in life expectancy, especially at higher ages, continue at the same pace or will it tend to reach its zenith (the biological limit of human life) and when? According to some experts, we are already approaching the limits of average human longevity, whereas for others, scientific progress will amply enable us to push back the age of 85 years determined by the former group. Improvement in the understanding of the multifactorial process of ageing will feed the debate but the economic, social and behavioural constraints of lengthning life spans should not be overlooked. Nevertheless and whatever age limit is set to define elderly people, based on a fixed or a varying age, as the age at which remaining life expectancy is constant, a sharp increase in numbers of elderly people is to be expected.
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Published by the Institute of Social Sciences - Center for Demographic Research
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