Examining the link: educational expansion and non-marital fertility in Croatia

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Published: Aug 20, 2024
DOI: https://doi.org/10.59954/stnv.622
Keywords:
non-marital fertility, education, demographic analysis, Croatia, decomposition methods

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Petra Međimurec
University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics & Business, Department of Demography, Zagreb (Croatia)
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2616-2457
Ivan Čipin
University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics & Business, Department of Demography, Zagreb (Croatia)
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5624-0359
Dario Mustač
University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics & Business, Department of Demography, Zagreb (Croatia)
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9891-6222

Abstract

This paper studies the macro-level relationship between education and non-marital fertility in Croatia. Using vital statistics on first births from 1984 to 2021, we explored non-marital fertility trends by mothers’ education and assessed the influence of women’s educational expansion. We observed a significant increase in the proportion of non-marital births, from under 10% in the mid-1980s to over 30% by 2021. Decomposition analysis showed that behavioural changes, particularly among medium-educated women, significantly influenced the increase in non-marital fertility. This group increasingly opted for childbearing outside of marriage. High-educated women also contributed to the trend, with the behavioural changes more modest in comparison to those of medium-educated women, but amplified by an increase in their group size. Direct standardization showed that higher educational attainment among first-time mothers moderated the proportion of non-marital births, suggesting that the proportion of non-marital births could have been even higher had the educational composition remained constant at 1984 levels. The study confirmed a persistent negative educational gradient, where lower educational attainment was associated with a higher likelihood of non-marital childbearing. The results have important implications for policymakers, as discussed in the paper.

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How to Cite
Međimurec, P., Čipin, I., & Mustač, D. (2024). Examining the link: educational expansion and non-marital fertility in Croatia. Stanovnistvo, 62(S1), S37-S55. https://doi.org/10.59954/stnv.622
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Vol. 62 No. S1 (2024): Special issue: Current population issues in post-Yugoslav countries
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Articles
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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.

Published by the Institute of Social Sciences - Center for Demographic Research 

Author Biographies

Petra Međimurec, University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics & Business, Department of Demography, Zagreb (Croatia)

Assistant professor

Ivan Čipin, University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics & Business, Department of Demography, Zagreb (Croatia)

Full professor

Dario Mustač, University of Zagreb, Faculty of Economics & Business, Department of Demography, Zagreb (Croatia)

Teaching and Research Assistant

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