Kakva je povezanost: obrazovna ekspanzija i izvanbračni fertilitet u Hrvatskoj

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Petra Međimurec
https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2616-2457
Ivan Čipin
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5624-0359
Dario Mustač
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9891-6222

Apstrakt

Istraživanja pokazuju da niže obrazovani češće imaju djecu izvan braka. Međutim, usporedno s porastom udjela djece rođene izvan braka, odvijala se obrazovna ekspanzija. Postojeća literatura sugerira da, iako je među nisko obrazovanima udio djece rođene izvan braka i dalje najveći, njihov sve manji udio u populaciji ograničava doprinos koji imaju zabilježenom rastu izvanbračnog fertiliteta. Na tom temelju, ovaj rad na primjeru Hrvatske istražuje izvanbračni fertilitet među ženama koje su rodile svoje prvo dijete, s ciljem da se odgovori na sljedeća istraživačka pitanja: Koliko se porasta u izvanbračnom fertilitetu može pripisati promjenama u obrazovnoj strukturi majki u usporedbi s promjenama u fertilitetnom ponašanju pojedinih obrazovnih skupina? Kakav bi bio trend u izvanbračnom fertilitetu da je obrazovna struktura majki ostala nepromijenjena? Koristeći se podacima iz vitalne statistike od sredine 1980-ih nadalje, ovaj rad istražuje udio prve djece rođene izvan braka među nisko, srednje i visoko obrazovanim ženama. Primjenom dekompozicijske analize, raščlanili smo na komponente ukupne promjene u izvanbračnom fertilitetu tijekom šest uzastopnih razdoblja: 1984. – 90., 1991. – 95., 1996. – 99., 2000. – 07., 2008. – 13. i 2014. – 21. Metodom direktne standardizacije istražili smo ulogu koju su promjene u obrazovnoj strukturi majki odigrale vezano uz zabilježene trendove u izvanbračnom fertilitetu. Nalazi otkrivaju znatan porast u udjelu prve djece rođene izvan braka, s ispod 10 % sredinom 1980-ih na više od 30% do 2021. U skladu s trendovima u drugim zemljama, rezultati pokazuju da je izvanbračni fertilitet porastao u svim obrazovnim skupinama. Dekompozicijska analiza pokazala je da su recentnom porastu izvanbračnog fertiliteta u najvećoj mjeri doprinijele promjene u ponašanju među srednje obrazovanima: kod te se skupina žena rađanje izvan braka intenziviralo. Trendu su doprinijele i visoko obrazovane žene; iako su bihevioralni učinci bili manje izraženi u usporedbi sa srednje obrazovanim ženama, njihov doprinos pojačali su strukturni učinci, odnosno rastuća veličina te obrazovne skupine. Direktna standardizacija pokazala je da je obrazovna ekspanzija usporila rast izvanbračnog fertiliteta: da je obrazovna struktura majki ostala nepromijenjena, naši rezultati sugeriraju da bi udio djece rođene izvan braka bio veći. Rezultati potvrđuju postojano negativan obrazovni gradijent u izvanbračnom fertilitetu u Hrvatskoj. Naši nalazi imaju važne implikacije za kreatore politike, o čemu se u radu raspravlja, i pomažu unaprijediti razumijevanje odnosa između obrazovanja i izvanbračnog fertiliteta spoznajama specifičnim za hrvatski kontekst.

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Kako citirati
Međimurec, P., Čipin, I., & Mustač, D. (2024). Kakva je povezanost: obrazovna ekspanzija i izvanbračni fertilitet u Hrvatskoj. Stanovništvo, 62(S1), S37-S55. https://doi.org/10.59954/stnv.622
Sekcija
Članci
Biografije autora

Petra Međimurec, Sveučilište u Zagrebu, Ekonomski fakultet, Odsjek za demografiju, Zagreb

Docent

Ivan Čipin, Sveučilište u Zagrebu, Ekonomski fakultet, Odsjek za demografiju, Zagreb

Redovni profesor

Dario Mustač, Sveučilište u Zagrebu, Ekonomski fakultet, Odsjek za demografiju, Zagreb

Asistent

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