Potential Directions of the "Town-to-Town" Migration in Vojvodina

Abstract

Population of Vojvodina is showing the characteristics of late demographic transition. The main characteristics of that phase are low mortality rate, slow decrease of fertility rate, increased number of older people etc. This phase is connected to fourth development phase of migrations with significant migrations from one city to another and inside the city area. The purpose of this paper is to define the basic characteristics of potential internal migrations in the region of Vojvodina between cities, most of all towards Novi Sad as economic, political and cultural centre. The sample of 2.000 respondents was formed and survey was conducted in the 15 largest cities in the region. The data were analyzed with methods of descriptive and multivariate statistical analysis (rank correlation and MDS analysis). Basic conclusions are that theory of transitional migration is confirmed in Vojvodina, the size of the city is not the only factor for potential migration movements and Novi Sad is by far the most desired destination for significant portion of population in the region, especially of population aged between 20 and 40 years because around 40% of that cohort wish to move to Novi Sad. That will cause significant urban, economic and social problems, not only in the city of Novi Sad but also in the cities where immigrants are coming from.