Čija je kriza, čija je dobit? Socioekonomske posledice migracije radne snage u oblasti nege iz Srbije u Nemačku

Glavni sadržaj članka

Dragana Stöckel
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2316-9584
Marina Pantelić
https://orcid.org/0009-0009-8331-7954

Apstrakt

This article investigates the phenomenon of care migration by analyzing the socioeconomic impacts associated with the internationalization of care work, using Serbia and Germany as case studies. Over recent decades, various social, economic, and demographic transformations have significantly affected the availability of both paid and unpaid care work. Notable trends—including population aging driven by declining fertility rates and increased life expectancy, reductions in average household size, and rising female labor force participation—have fundamentally reshaped the organization and provision of care services. These shifts have exacerbated the persistent global care crisis and underscored the growing role of migrant care workers in care provision. Drawing on the concepts of “global care chains” and “crisis of care”, this study analyzes the dynamics of care and migration, focusing on how policy and practice shape the integration of migrant care labor into transnational eldercare sector, with Serbia and Germany as illustrative cases. The article pursues three primary objectives: first, to assess care arrangements and the management of transnational care in both countries; second, to outline Germany’s policy strategies aimed at balancing care demand and supply in eldercare provision; and third, to evaluate Serbia’s responses to its care gaps within the national social policy framework. The findings indicate that Germany and Serbia face rising eldercare demand, but respond with unequal capacities. Germany expands services and recruits migrant workers, while Serbia relies on informal care amid workforce outflows. Embedded in global care chains, these strategies redistribute—rather than resolve—care deficits, reinforcing cross-national inequalities and long-term sustainability challenges.

Puni tekst članka je dostupan za ovaj lokalitet: English.

Detalji članka

Kako citirati
Stöckel, D., & Pantelić, M. (2026). Čija je kriza, čija je dobit? Socioekonomske posledice migracije radne snage u oblasti nege iz Srbije u Nemačku. Stanovništvo. https://doi.org/10.59954/stnv.768
Broj časopisa
Sekcija
Tematska sekcija: demografski izazovi i ekonomski razvoj
Biografija autora

Marina Pantelić, Faculty of Political Sciences, Belgrade, Serbia

Assistant Professor at the Department for Social Policy and Social Work

Reference

Agentur für Arbeit Würzburg. (2023). Studium der Humanmedizin: Wege und Alternativen [Studying human medicine: paths and alternatives]. https://www.arbeitsagentur.de/vor-ort/datei/humanmedizin_ba198292.pdf
Ariaans, M. (2021). Professionalization of the Long-Term-Care Workforce in Germany – The Role of Policies and Organized Actors. https://madoc.bib.uni-mannheim.de/61784/1/20220322_Dissertation_Ariaans.pdf
Blagojević, M., Krasulja, N., Ilić, D., & Milošević, D. (2023). The analysis of brain circulation of health care professionals in Serbia, Croatia and Slovenia. BizInfo Blace, 14(1), 59-67. https://doi.org/10.5937/bizinfo2301059V
Blower-Nassiri, J. (2023). A gendered analysis of migration trends in Europe’s social care sector. International Organization for Migration. https://publications.iom.int/system/files/pdf/pub2023-065-l-a-gendered-analysis.pdf
Bundesagentur für Arbeit. (2024). Programm Triple Win [Triple Win program]. https://www.arbeitsagentur.de/vor-ort/zav/projects-programs/health-and-care/triple-win
Bundesregierung. (2025). Mindestlöhne in der Altenpflege sollen steigen. https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/service/newsletter-und-abos/bundesregierung-aktuell/ausgabe-43-2025-november-28-2396126?view=renderNewsletterHtml
Bundesärztekammer. (2025). Ergebnisse der Ärztestatistik zum 31.12.2024 [Results of the physician statistics as of December 31, 2024]. https://www.bundesaerztekammer.de/baek/ueber-uns/aerztestatistik/2024
Böse, C., Schmitz, N., & Zorner, J. (2025). Auswertung der amtlichen Statistik zum Anerkennungsgesetz des Bundes für 2024: Ergebnisse des BIBB-Anerkennungsmonitorings. Bundesinstitut für Berufsbildung. https://res.bibb.de/vet-repository_783880
Deutscher Bundestag. (2020). Einzelfragen zu den Kosten eines Medizinstudiums. https://www.bundestag.de/resource/blob/702380/4582a586f8639efa3edf4a949b112c1f/WD-8-020-20-pdf-data.pdf
Eurodiaconia. (2024). Report on migrant care workers: Towards fair working conditions and inclusion of migrants in the EU care workforce. https://eurodiaconia.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/04/Migrant-Care-Workers-Report.pdf
European Commission. (2021). The 2021 ageing report: Economic and budgetary projections for the EU member states (2019–2070) (Institutional Paper 148). Publications Office of the European Union. https://economy-finance.ec.europa.eu/publications/2021-ageing-report-economic-and-budgetary-projections-eu-member-states-2019-2070_en
Fischbach, S. (2025). Social sustainability and the crisis of care: Western European ‘care extractivism’ in South East Europe. In K. Hermans, I. Stamm, A.-L. Matthies, & S. Elsen (Eds.), Ecosocial Work and Sustainability Transitions: Theories, Methodologies and Practices (pp. 164-180). Policy Press. https://doi.org/10.51952/9781447376118.ch009
Fraser, N. (2016). Contradictions of Capital and Care. New Left Review 2, 99-117. https://doi.org/10.64590/nt2
Gheaus, A. (2013). Care drain: Who should provide for the children left behind?. Critical Review of International Social and Political Philosophy, 16(1), 1-23. https://doi.org/10.1080/13698230.2011.572425
Gottschall, K. (2023). The interaction of gender regimes and long-term care provision across Europe: Ambivalent intersections of gender, class and ethnicity. Women’s Studies International Forum, 98, 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wsif.2023.102745
Götze, R., & Rothgang, H. (2014). Fiscal and social policy: Financing long-term care in Germany. In K. P. Companje (Ed.), Financing high medical risks (pp. 63-100). Amsterdam University Press.
Güldemann, H. (2022). Pillars of health: Country report on health worker migration and mobility, Germany. https://cstor.eu/pillarsofhealth/2022/09/b3b4063d-pillars-of-health_country-report-on-health-worker-migration-and-mobility_germany.pdf
Hochschild, A. R. (1995). The culture of politics: Traditional, postmodern, cold-modern, and warm-modern ideals of care. Social Politics: International Studies in Gender, State & Society, 2(3), 331-346. https://doi.org/10.1093/sp/2.3.331
Hochschild, A. R. (2000). Global care chains and emotional surplus value. In W. Hutton & A. Giddens (Eds.), On the edge: Living with global capitalism (pp. 130-146). Jonathan Cape.
International Labour Organization. (2024). Migrant workers in the care economy. https://www.ilo.org/publications/migrant-workers-care-economy
Kofman, E., & Raghuram, P. (2009). The Implications of Migration for Gender and Care Regimes in the South. United Nations Research Institute for Social Development.
Kordes, J. (2019). Anwerbeprogramme in der Pflege: Migrationspolitiken als räumliche Bearbeitungsweise der Krise sozialer Reproduktion. Prokla, 49, 551-567.
Kordes, J., Pütz, R., & Rand, S. (2020). Analyzing migration management: On the recruitment of nurses to Germany. Social Sciences, 9(2), 19. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci9020019
Lutz, H., & Palenga-Mollenbeck, E. (2012). Care workers, care drain, and care chains: Reflections on care, migration, and citizenship. Social Politics, 19(1), 15-37. https://doi.org/10.1093/sp/jxr026
Ministarstvo zdravlja. (2025). Povratak naših medicinara: Više od 200 njih se vratilo za godinu dana rada kancelarije za dijasporu. https://www.zdravlje.gov.rs/vest/460423/nastavlja-se-povratak-nasih-medicinara
Noack, K., & Storath, G. M. (2022). Migrantische Arbeitskräfte in der formellen Altenpflege in Deutschland und Schweden. WSI-Mitteilungen, 75(5), 401-406. https://doi.org/10.5771/0342-300X-2022-5-401
Perišić, N. (2021). Long-term care in the Republic of Serbia. CRC 1342 Global Dynamics of Social Policy. https://doi.org/10.26092/elib/1500
Perišić, N., & Pantelić, M. (2021). Care Triangle or Care Diamond? The Case of Childcare and Eldercare in Serbia. Revija Za Socijalnu Politiku, 28(3), 323-345. https://doi.org/10.3935/rsp.v28i3.1805
Radonjić, O., & Bobić, M. (2021). Brain drain losses: A case study of Serbia. International Migration, 59(1), 5-20. https://doi.org/10.1111/imig.12710
Republički zavod za socijalnu zaštitu. (2023). Izveštaj o radu ustanova za smeštaj odraslih i starijih za 2022. godinu. https://www.zavodsz.gov.rs/media/2575/izvestaj-o-radu-ustanova-za-starije-2022.pdf
Satarić, N., & Perišić, N. (2017). Prigušena svetla grada – Studija o položaju i potrebama staračkih domaćinstava Novog Beograda. Amity.
Schultz, S. (2016). Die zukünftige Nation: Demografisierung von Migrationspolitik und neue Konjunkturen des Rassismus. Movements: Journal for Critical Migration and Border Regime Studies, 2(1). http://movements-journal.org/issues/03.rassismus/06.schultz--die.zukuenftige.nation.html
Shahd, A. (2024). The global care chain: Analyzing the increasing feminization of care work across borders. Social Sciences, 13(3), 74-80. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ss.20241303.14
Shire, K., & Nemoto, K. (2020). The origins and transformations of conservative gender regimes in Germany and Japan. Social Politics, 27(3), 432-448. https://doi.org/10.1093/sp/jxaa017
Sowa-Kofta, A., Rodrigues, R., Lamura, G., Sopadzhiyan, A., Wittenberg, R., Bauer, G., Doetter, L. F., Ilinca, S., Marczak, J., Piersinaru, A., & Rothgang, H. (2019). Long-term care and migrant care work: Addressing workforce shortages while raising policy questions. Eurohealth, 25(4), 15-18.
Stanić, K. (2024). Dugotrajna nega starih u Srbiji. In V. Kostić (Ed.), Budućnost starenja : zbornik radova sa naučnog skupa održanog 1. i 2. decembra 2022. godine (pp. 151-171). SANU.
Statistical Office of Republic of Serbia. (2023). Estimated Population, 2022. https://publikacije.stat.gov.rs/G2023/HtmlE/G20231179.html
Statistical Office of Republic of Serbia. (2025). Regions of the Republic of Serbia. https://publikacije.stat.gov.rs/G2025/PdfE/G202526001.pdf
Statistical Office of Republic of Serbia, Institute of Public Health of Serbia "Dr Milan Jovanović Batut“, & Ministry of Health. (2021). The 2019 Serbian National Health Survey. Statistical Office of Republic of Serbia. https://publikacije.stat.gov.rs/G2021/PdfE/G20216003.pdf
Statistik der Bundesagentur für Arbeit. (2025). Berichte: Blickpunkt Arbeitsmarkt – Arbeitsmarktsituation im Pflegebereich. https://statistik.arbeitsagentur.de/DE/Statischer-Content/Statistiken/Themen-im-Fokus/Berufe/Generische-Publikationen/Altenpflege.pdf
Statistisches Bundesamt. (2023). Long-term care projection: 1.8 million more people in need of long-term care expected until 2055. https://www.destatis.de/EN/Press/2023/03/PE23_124_12.html
Statistisches Bundesamt. (2024). Pflegebedürftige nach Versorgungsart, Geschlecht und Pflegegrade. https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gesellschaft-Umwelt/Gesundheit/Pflege/Tabellen/pflegebeduerftige-pflegestufe.html
Statistisches Bundesamt. (2025a). Bereits 2035 wird in Deutschland ein Viertel der Bevölkerung 67 Jahre und älter sein. https://www.destatis.de/DE/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/2025/12/PD25_446_12.html
Statistisches Bundesamt. (2025b). Tag der Jugend: Anteil junger Menschen von 15 bis 24 Jahren bleibt mit 10,0 % auf historisch niedrigem Niveau. https://www.destatis.de/DE/Presse/Pressemitteilungen/Zahl-der-Woche/2025/PD25_32_p002.html
Statistisches Bundesamt. (2026). Ältere Menschen. Die Bevölkerungsgruppe der älteren Menschen ab 65 Jahren [Older people: The population group of people aged 65 and over]. https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Querschnitt/Demografischer-Wandel/Aeltere-Menschen/bevoelkerung-ab-65-j.html
Vučković, M., Dimitrijević, M., & Panić, R. (2022). Istraživanje o odlasku lekara iz Srbije na rad u inostranstvo. Centar za politike emancipacije. https://cpe.org.rs/wp-content/uploads/2023/06/Istrazivanje-o-odlasku-lekara-iz-Srbije-CPE-SLFS-2022-web.pdf
World Bank. (2021). Health workforce mobility from Croatia, Serbia and North Macedonia to Germany. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/489881614056529442/pdf/Main-Report.pdf
World Bank. (2026). World Bank Country and Lending Groups. Country Classification. https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519-world-bank-country-and-lending-groups
World Health Organization. (2017). Women on the move: migration, care work and health. https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789241513142
World Health Organization. (2024). Protecting health and care workers’ mental health and well-being: Technical Consultation Meeting. https://www.who.int/news/item/25-04-2024-202404_protecthw_mentalhealth
World Health Organization. (2025). Density of doctors (physicians) per 10 000 population. https://data.who.int/indicators/i/CCCEBB2/217795A
Yeates, N. (2004). Global care chains: Critical reflections and lines of enquiry. International Feminist Journal of Politics, 6(3), 369-391. https://doi.org/10.1080/1461674042000235573
Yeates, N. (2005). Global care chains: A critical introduction. Global Commission on International Migration. https://www.refworld.org/reference/research/gcim/2005/35223
Yeates, N. (2012). Global care chains: A state-of-the-art review and future directions in care transnationalization research. Global Networks, 12(2), 135-154. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1471-0374.2012.00344.x