Fertilitet i promene u obrazovanju žena u Hrvatskoj
Bočna strana članka
Glavni sadržaj članka
Apstrakt
Ovaj rad bavi se agregatnom vezom između fertiliteta i obrazovanja žena u Hrvatskoj. U demografskoj literaturi obrazovanje žena prepoznato je kao jedna od najvažnijih odrednica vremena rađanja prvoga deteta i sveukupnog nivoa fertiliteta. Stoga brojni autori ispituju uticaj nivoa obrazovanja žena na reproduktivno ponašanje. Međutim, noviji radovi upućuju na to da polje obrazovanja žena takođe može imati važnu ulogu u tumačenju reproduktivnih obrazaca. Štaviše, brojni empirijski nalazi pokazuju da polje obrazovanja žena utiče na fertilitet čak i ako se u analizu uključi nivo obrazovanja. Naime, žene koje su se opredelile za isto polje obrazovanja su međusobno više slične od žena unutar pojedinog nivoa obrazovanja. Drugim rečima, postojeći argumenti sugerišu da se žene sa istim poljem obrazovanja mogu smatrati homogenom grupom po pitanju preferencija, iskustava tokom životnoga ciklusa i uslova sa kojima se suočavaju na tržištu rada.
Ovo istraživanje daje doprinos dosadašnjim spoznajama o makro činiocima koji mogu izazvati razlike u fertilitetu simultanim uvažavanjem nivoa i polja obrazovanja žena. Glavni je cilj proceniti efekte strukturnih promena u obrazovanju žena na kohortne reproduktivne ishode u Hrvatskoj. Sagledavaju se generacije žena koje su rođene od 1930. do 1970. godine, a podaci se povlače iz Popisa stanovništva, domaćinstava i stanova 2011. godine. Pritom se pret-postavlja da je najmlađa generacija žena uglavnom završila svoju reproduktivnu karijeru s 40 godina. Budući da su dostupne informacije o broju dece prema starosti, nivou i polju obrazovanja pa i bračnome stanju majke, određuju se kohortne stope fertiliteta za svaku sociodemografsku grupu žena koja je definisana navedenim kategorijama.
U Hrvatskoj je kohortna stopa fertiliteta pala sa iznad-zamenskog nivoa (od oko 2,1) za generaciju žena rođenu 1930. godine na ispod-zamenski nivo (od oko 1,8) za generaciju žena rođenu 1970. godine. Kako bi se utvrdilo koliki deo pada u kohortnoj stopi fertiliteta proizlazi iz strukturnih promena u obrazovanju žena, primenjuju se tehnike Das Guptine trofaktorske dekompozicije. Postupak se ponavlja u petogodišnjim razmacima, a metodom standardizacije procenjuje se kolika bi kohortna stopa fertiliteta u Hrvatskoj bila da je distribucija žena prema naznačenim obeležjima (nivou i polju obrazovanja, bračnome stanju) ostala konstantna tokom vremena. Na kraju, razvojem koeficijenata kohortne paritetne progresije daje se detaljniji uvid u reproduktivno ponašanje razmatranih generacija žena s obzirom na nivo i polje obrazovanja.
Dobijeni rezultati u skladu su sa prethodnim zaključcima koji se odnose na zemlje srednje i istočne Evrope i upućuju na dominaciju strukturnoga nad direktnim dejstvom – pad u kohortnim stopama fertiliteta u Hrvatskoj može se velikim delom pripisati napretku u obrazovanju žena. Udane žene s najnižim obrazovanjem daju najizraženiji podsticaj silaznom trendu u kohortnim stopama fertiliteta. S druge strane, nisu pronađeni jaki dokazi u prilog usvojenoj hipotezi prema kojoj polje obrazovanja barem delomično objašnjava pad u kohortnim stopama fertiliteta. Stabilan sastav prema polju obrazovanja među ženama sa višim nivoima obrazovanja doveo bi, u najboljem slučaju, tek do skromnih promena u kohortnim stopama fertiliteta. U ranijim fazama ekspanzije u obrazovanju žena odabir polja obrazovanja možda slabije deluje na reproduktivne odluke.
Preuzimanja
Detalji članka
Centar za demografska istraživanja Instituta društvenih nauka
Reference
BAGAVOS, C. (2010). Education and childlessness: The relationship between educational field, educational level, employment and childlessness among Greek women born in 1955-1959. Vienna Yearbook of Population Research 8: 51–75.
BALBO, N., BILLARI, F. C. & MILLS, M. (2013). Fertility in advanced societies: A review of research. European Journal of Population 29(1): 1–38.
BECKER, G. S. (1991). A Treatise on the Family. 2nd ed. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
BEGALL, K. & MILLS, M. (2013). The Influence of Educational Field, Occupation, and Occupational Sex Segregation on Fertility in the Netherlands. European Sociological Review 29(4): 720–42.
BLOSSFELD, H.-P. & HUININK, J. (1991). Human capital investments or norms of role transition? How women's schooling and career affect the process of family formation. The American Journal of Sociology 97(1): 143–168.
BREWSTER, K. L. & RINDFUSS, R. R. (2000). Fertility and women's employment in industrialized nations. Annual Review of Sociology 26: 271–296.
BREZNIK, D. (1991). Stanovništvo Jugoslavije. Titograd: Chronos, Konzorcijum instituta društvenih nauka.
BREZNIK, D., MOJIĆ, A., RAŠEVIĆ, M. & RANČIĆ, M. (1972). Fertilitet stanovništva u Jugoslaviji. Beograd: Institut društvenih nauka, Centar za demografska istraživanja.
BRZOZOWSKA, Z. (2014). Fertility and education in Poland during state socialism. Demographic Research 31(12): 319–336.
BRZOZOWSKA, Z. (2015). Female education and Fertility under State Socialism in Central and Eastern Europe. Population 4(70): 731–769.
CANUDAS ROMO, V. (2003). Decomposition Methods in Demography. Groningen: Rijksuniversiteit Groningen.
CARMICHAEL, G. A. (2016). Fundamentals of Demographic Analysis: Concepts, Measures and Methods. Cham: Springer International Publishing.
CBS (2016a). Women and Men in Croatia, 2016 (electronic resource). Zagreb: Croatian Bureau of Statistics. http://www.dzs.hr/Hrv_Eng/menandwomen/men_and_women_2016.pdf
CBS (2016b). Census of Population, Households and Dwellings 2011 (electronic resource). Zagreb: Croatian Bureau of Statistics. http://www.dzs.hr/Eng/censuses/census2011/censuslogo.htm
CHO, L. J. & RETHERFORD, R. D. (1973). Comparative analysis of recent fertility trends in East Asia. In: International Union for the Scientific Study of Population (Eds.), Proceedings of the 17th General Conference of the IUSSP (pp. 163–181). Liège, Belgium: IUSSP.
COHEN, J. E., KRAVDAL, Ø. & KEILMAN, N. (2011). Childbearing impeded education more than education impeded childbearing among Norwegian women. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 108(29): 11830–11835.
DAS GUPTA, P. (1978). A General Method of Decomposing a Difference between Two Rates into Several Components. Demography 15(1): 99–112.
FEENEY, G. (1991). Fertility decline in Taiwan: A study using parity progression ratios. Demography 28(3): 467–479.
FREJKA, T. & SARDON, J.-P. (2007). Cohort birth order, parity progression ratio and parity distribution trends in developed countries. Demographic Research 16(11): 315–374.
HOEM, J. M. (1986.) The impact of education on modern family-union initiation. European Journal of Population 2(2): 113–133.
HOEM, J. M., NEYER, G. & ANDERSSON, G. (2006a). Education and child-lessness: The relationship between educational field, educational level, and childlessness among Swedish women born in 1955-59. Demographic Research 14(15): 331–380.
HOEM, J. M., NEYER, G. & ANDERSSON, G. (2006b). Educational attainment and ultimate fertility among Swedish women born in 1955-59. Demographic Research 14(16): 381–404.
KITAGAWA, E. M. (1955). Components of a difference between two rates. Journal of the American Statistical Association 50(272): 1168–1194.
KEROVEC, N. (2003). (Ne)jednakost žena na tržištu rada. Revija za socijalnu politiku 10(3): 263–282.
KOHLER, H.-P. & ORTEGA, A. (2002). Tempo-Adjusted Period Parity Progression Measures, Fertility Postponement and Completed Cohort Fertility. Demographic Research 6(6): 91–144.
KRAVDAL, Ø. & RINDFUSS, R. R. (2008). Changing Relationships between Education and Fertility: A Study of Women and Men Born 1940 to 1964. American Sociological Review 73(5): 854–873.
LAPPEGÅRD, T. & RØNSEN, M. (2005). The multifaceted impact of education on entry into motherhood. European Journal of Population 21(1): 31–49.
LESTHAEGHE, R. (1995). The second demographic transition in Western countries: An interpretation. In K. O. Mason and A.-M. Jensen (Eds.), Gender and family change in industrialized countries (pp. 17–62). Oxford, England: Clarendon Press.
LIEFBROER, A. C. & CORIJN, M. (1999). Who, what, where and when? Specifying the impact of educational attainment and labour force participation on family formation. European Journal of Population 15(1): 45–75.
MARTÍN-GARCÍA, T. (2008). A reassessment of the role of women's education in existing fertility research. Genus 64(1–2): 131–157.
MARTÍN-GARCÍA, T. & BAIZÁN, P. (2006). The impact of the type of education and of educational enrolment on first births. European Sociological Review 22(3): 259–275.
MCDONALD, P. & KIPPEN, R. (2009). Fertility in South Australia: An overview of trends and socio-economic differences. Report to the Department of Trade and Economic Development. Adelaide: Government of South Australia.
MICHELMORE, K. & MUSICK, K. (2013). Fertility Patterns of College Graduates by Field of Study – US Women Born 1960-79. Population Studies 68(3): 359–374.
NEYER, G. & HOEM, J. M. (2008). Education and permanent childlessness: Austria vs. Sweden. A research note. In J. Surkyn, P. Deboosere & J. Van Bavel (Eds.), A tribute to the continuing endeavours of Prof. Dr. Em. Ron Lesthaeghe in the field of demography (pp. 91–112). Brussels: Brussels University Press.
PRPIĆ, K. (1979). Žena u procesu zapošljavanja. Sociologija sela 63–64: 49–59.
RASEVIC, M. (1971). Determinante fertiliteta stanovništva u Jugoslaviji. Beograd: Institut društvenih nauka – Centar za demografska istraživanja.
RØNSEN, M. & SKREDE, K. (2010). Can public policies sustain fertility in the Nordic countries? Lessons from the past and questions for the future. Demographic Research 22(13): 321– 346.
SIROTKOVIĆ, J. (1996). Hrvatsko gospodarstvo – privredna kretanja i ekonomska politika. Zagreb: Golden Marketing – Tehnička knjiga i HAZU.
SKIRBEKK, V. (2008). Fertility trends by social status. Demographic Research 18(5): 145–180.
SOBOTKA, T., SKIRBEKK, V. & PHILIPOV, D. (2011). Economic Recession and Fertility in the Developed World. Population and Development Review 37(2): 267–306.
TESCHING, K. (2012). Education and Fertility: Dynamic Interrelations Between Women’s Educational Level, Educational Field and Fertility in Sweden. Stockholm: Acta Universitatis Stockholmiensis.
UNESCO (2006). International Standard Classification of Education: ISCED 1997 (electronic resource). Paris: UNESCO. http://www.uis.unesco.org/Library/Documents/isced97-en.pdf
VAN BAVEL, J. (2010). Choice of study discipline and the postponement of motherhood in Europe: The impact of expected earnings, gender composition and family attitudes. Demography 47 (2): 439–458.
VAN DE KAA, D. J. (1987). Europe’s Second Demographic Transition. Population Bulletin 42 (1): 1–59.
WERTHEIMER-BALETIĆ, A. (1971). Stanovništvo SR Hrvatske – studije. Zagreb: Školska knjiga.