Dugoročne demografske implikacije niskog fertiliteta u regionu bivše Jugoslavije
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Nakon raspada SFRJ, kvalitet i dostupnost demografske i migracione statistike u regionu kao celini, a posebno u pojedinim njegovim delovima, su se pogoršali, što je učinilo da izrada populacionih prognoza preraste u priličan izazov. Iako su SFRJ karakterisale značajne subregionalne razlike u početku i tempu demografske tranzicije, početkom 21. veka sve populacije u regionu odlikuje stopa ukupnog fertiliteta ispod 2,1. Cilj je razmotriti dugoročne implikacije niskog fertiliteta, te da li u tom smislu dolazi do demografske homogenizacije regiona. Poseban akcenat je na prognozama populacione dinamike do 2055, imajući u vidu pretpostavke o postepenom ulasku regiona u post-tranzicionu fazu oporavka fertiliteta, te očekivanu tranziciju ka neto imigraciji u skladu sa konceptom migracionog ciklusa, prema kojem se Evropa dugoročno pretvara u imigracioni kontinent. Polazeći od kritičkog sagledavanja dostupnih populacionih projekcija za države regiona, rad pruža prvi metodološki i regionalno konzistentan set populacionih projekcija, koji se zasniva na modelu Ujedinjenih Nacija korišćenom za aktuelnu reviziju izgleda svetske populacije. Povratak
na populacioni maksimum regiona iz 1990. nije moguć ni u uslovima malo verovatnog fertiliteta iznad nivoa zamene generacija. Duž istočnog oboda EU stvara se zona depopulacije, koja je, prema modelu UN, najizraženija zona depopulacije u globalnim okvirima. Demografski pritisak starih na radni kontingent u regionu SFRJ najverovatnije će se udvostručiti već do sredine veka, što je najvažnija demografska implikacija dugotrajno niskog fertiliteta, koja, ipak, ima svoje granice. Stoga će naredne četiri decenije biti period navikavanja na novu realnost, koja u svetlu savremenog koncepta populacione politike (kvalitet pre kvantiteta) ne mora nužno biti loša.
Preuzimanja
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Centar za demografska istraživanja Instituta društvenih nauka
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