Sezonske varijacije smrtnosti od kardiovaskularnih, respiratornih i malignih oboljenja u Gradu Beogradu
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Cilj rada je analiza sezonskih varijacija mortaliteta uzrokovanog kardiovaskularnim, respiratornim i malignim oboljenjima, kao i prikaz faktora životne sredine koji leže u osnovi ovog fenomena. Predstavljeno istraživanje se odnosi na Grad Beograd i sprovedeno je na osnovu podataka o dnevnoj smrtnosti 2009-2014. godine (Gradski zavod za javno zdravlje) i godišnjoj smrtnosti 2000-2014. (Republički zavod za statistiku). Za analizu varijacija mortaliteta korišćene su Theil-Sen, smooth trend i metoda kubne spline interpolacije, dok su za ispitivanje distribucije korišćeni indeks sezonalnosti, indeks različitosti i indeks entropije. Rezultati pokazuju da je sezonalnost naročito izražena u slučaju kardiovaskularnog i respiratornog mortaliteta, sa najvišom stopom smrtnosti u februaru i martu i minimalnim vrednostima tokom letnjeg perioda. Suprotno tome, mortalitet uzrokovan malignim oboljenjima ne pokazuje značajne sezonske varijacije, a više od trećine smrtnih slučajeva se beleži među mlađim osobama (45-64 godine). Kada je u pitanju desezonalizovan trend, smrtnost od kardiovaskularnih oboljenja pokazuje stagnaciju, dok su mortalitet od malignih oboljenja i respiratorni mortalitet u umerenom odnosno značajnom porastu. Ovakav trend je uniforman u skoro svim beogradskim opštinama, a prosečne stope smrtnosti u poslednjih 15 godina su bile više u centralnim nego u perifernim zonama Grada, naročito kada je u pitanju smrtnost od maligniteta. Bolje razumevanje sezonskih varijacija mortaliteta uzrokovanog hroničnim nezaraznim bolestima je neophodno kako bi se moglo preventivno delovati u cilju njegovog smanjenja, naročito onog dela koji se odnosi na kardiovaskularna i maligna oboljenja, za koji su godišnje stope među najvišim registrovanim u Evropi.
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Centar za demografska istraživanja Instituta društvenih nauka
Reference
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