Politička kultura među mladima u Srbiji: interesovanje, participacija, zadovoljstvo i poverenje
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Osnovni cilj ovog rada bilo je empirijsko ispitivanje četiri aspekta političke kulture mladih u Srbiji korišćenjem statističke analize zasnovane na podacima iz jedanaeste runde Evropskog društvenog istraživanja. Ponudili smo novo teorijsko objašnjenje političke kulture, različito od onoga obuhvaćenog teorijom modernizacije, a zatim ga potkrepili klasifikacijom na četiri osnovne vrste: pasivna, cinična, protestna i participativna politička kultura. Određena je opšta hipoteza da je među mladima u Srbiji zastupljena cinična politička kultura. U cilju potvrđivanja prethodno pomenutog, postavili smo četiri potporne hipoteze koje se odnose na različite aspekte političke kulture: interesovanje za politiku, politička participacija, zadovoljstvo trenutnim stanjem u zemlji i političko poverenje. Pretpostavili smo da će na ove komponente uticati socio-demografske karakteristike (pol, region, obrazovanje, starost) kao i ideološko pozicioniranje ispitanika (pozicija na ideološkoj skali levo-desno). Rezultati su pokazali da većina mladih iskazuje nisko interesovanje za politiku (preko 80%), kao i nisku političku participaciju (preko 70% ako izuzmemo glasanje na izborima). Pojedini oblici participacije bili su zastupljeni u nešto većem procentu, ali sveukupno gledano većina mladih učestvuje u nijednom ili u svega jednom obliku političke participacije godišnje. Takođe, uprkos umerenom zadovoljstvu obrazovnim sistemom i umerenim poverenjem u policiju, prosečan opšti nivo zadovoljstva i poverenja u institucije bio je statistički značajno ispod neutralne pozicije. Rezultati regresionih analiza pokazali su nezavisan uticaj obrazovanja na političko interesovanje. Povećanje obrazovnog nivoa praćeno je povećanjem šanse za 96,2% da će mladi biti u kategoriji zainteresovanih za politiku. Takođe, primetna je povezanost starosti i političke participacije gde svako povećanje starosti za jednu godinu znači i oko 20% veće šanse za učešće u nekom obliku institucionalne političke participacije. Kada je u pitanju zadovoljstvo stanjem u zemlji, kao značajna izdvojila se interakcija pola i obrazovanja pri čemu se porastom obrazovnog nivoa smanjuju razlike među polovima u nivou zadovoljstva. Takođe, primetan je uticaj političke orijentacije na zadovoljstvo. Ispitanici koji su se pozicionirali kao desnica iskazali su najveće zadovoljstvo stanjem u zemlji. Identičan nalaz primećen je i kod poverenja u domaće institucije – ponovo su ispitanici koji se pozicioniraju kao desnica imali najviši nivo poverenja. Naposletku, kad je u pitanju poverenje prema domaćim institucijama, kao značajna izdvojila se i interakcija između regiona i obrazovanja, pri čemu razlike prema obrazovnom nivou variraju u zavisnosti od regiona. Pokazalo se da je u razvijenijim regionima porast obrazovnog nivoa praćen opadanjem poverenja. Na temelju prethodno navedenih rezultata tvrdimo da je u analiziranom periodu cinična politička kultura bila preovlađujući oblik političke kulture mladima u Srbiji. Primećena su sva četiri aspekta koja su potrebna za njeno određenje – nisko političko interesovanje, niska politička participacija, nisko zadovoljstvo stanjem u zemlji i nisko poverenje u institucije. Nalazi o značaju pojedinih socio-demografskih karakteristika pokazuju najčešće isticanje obrazovanja kao važnog prediktora, ali je taj uticaj bio inkonzistentan i često povezan sa drugim faktorima. Sveukupno, dobijeni nalazi nisu bili dovoljni za donošenje jasnih zaključaka o zastupljenosti nekog drugog tipa političke kulture u pojedinim socio-demografskim kategorijama.
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Centar za demografska istraživanja Instituta društvenih nauka
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