Starenje stanovništva i rodni jaz: Dvostruki izazov ekonomskom rastu
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Starenje populacije je jedan od ključnih globalnih demografskih trendova, koji preoblikuje društva širom sveta i donosi brojne makroekonomske probleme. Povećanje udela starijih u radno aktivnoj kategoriji stanovništva i rodnih nejednakosti predstavljaju značajne prepreke održivom ekonomskom rastu. Evropski kontinent suočava se sa sve izraženijim trendom starenja populacije, što može dovesti do nedostatka radne snage, rasta troškova zdravstvene zaštite i dodatnog opterećenja socijalnih usluga. Takođe, ovi demografski trendovi izazivaju zabrinutost u vezi s međugeneracijskom pravednošću i dugoročnom održivošću penzionih sistema. Globalno starenje stanovništva pokrenulo je brojne rasprave o njegovim ekonomskim posledicama. Rastući udeo starije populacije koja više nije ekonomski aktivna donosi niz izazova, uključujući povećane zdravstvene, ekonomske i socijalne troškove. S druge strane, integracija starijih osoba u ekonomski i društveni život kroz prilagođene programe i ulaganje u ljudski kapital može otvoriti nove razvojne mogućnosti. Zbog toga je proučavanje posledica demografskog starenja od ključnog značaja, jer nepovoljna starosna struktura može imati direktan uticaj na ekonomski razvoj, kako na nacionalnom, tako i na međunarodnom nivou.
Kako bismo istražili uticaj starenja populacije, rodnih nejednakosti i ekonomskog osnaživanja žena na ekonomske performanse, primenili smo kvantilnu regresiju na uzorku od 35 evropskih zemalja u periodu od 2000. do 2022. godine. Naši empirijski nalazi ukazuju na to da starenje populacije negativno utiče na ekonomski rast, pri čemu je povećanje udela starijih osoba u radno sposobnom stanovništvu za 1% povezano sa smanjenjem stope ekonomskog rasta u rasponu od 0,03% do 0,07%. Prema našim rezultatima, povećanje rodnih nejednakosti negativno utiče na ekonomski rast, pri čemu rast rodnih nejednakosti za 1% dovodi do ekonomskog pada u rasponu od 0,002% do 0,005%. Diskriminacija i isključenost žena iz ključnih ekonomskih uloga imaju izraženiji negativan uticaj na ukupne ekonomske performanse u zemljama sa srednjim i visokim nivoom dohotka. Smanjenje rodne ravnopravnosti predstavlja ozbiljnu pretnju ne samo ekonomskom rastu već i političkoj stabilnosti, jer osim što usporava produktivnost i inovacije, podstiče i društveno nezadovoljstvo i aktivizam za prava žena. Osim toga, utvrdili smo da je povoljno pravno okruženje za učešće žena u poslovnom i ekonomskom sektoru pozitivno i značajno povezano sa ekonomskim rastom, kako u zemljama s niskim, tako i u zemljama s visokim nivoom dohotka. Rezultati našeg istraživanja mogu pružiti važne smernice za politiku evropskih zemalja koje se suočavaju sa značajnim demografskim izazovima, posebno starenjem stanovništva.
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Centar za demografska istraživanja Instituta društvenih nauka
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