Uticaj starenja stanovništva na fiskalni bilans Evropske unije
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Zemlje Evropske unije (EU) se suočavaju sa problemom starenja stanovništva i posle Japana imaju najveće učešće starih u ukupnoj populaciji. Procenjuje se da će se broj stanovnika, uprkos prilivu migranata, nakon 2035. godine smanjivati, dok će koeficijent starosne zavisnosti (odnos broja starijih od 65 godina i ukupnog broja radno sposobnih) rasti. Cilj ovog rada je da utvrdi efekte starenja stanovništva na fiskalni bilans EU. Uprkos važnosti ovog pitanja, broj empirijskih radova koji istražuju pomenutu relaciju na primeru zemalja EU je zanemarljiv.
Empirijsko istraživanje je sprovedeno primenom ekonometrijskih metoda na bazi panela podataka za 27 zemalja EU za period 2001-2021. godine. Primenjena su tri modela gde je kao zavisna varijabla korišćen fiskalni bilans države, meren kao procenat bruto domaćeg proizvoda (BDP), a kao nezavisne varijable korišćeni su: koeficijent starosne zavisnosti (model 1), udeo stanovništva starijeg od 64 godine u ukupnoj populaciji (model 2) i izdaci za zdravstvo (model 3). Svi modeli su potvrdili da starenje stanovništva značajno negativno utiče na fiskalni bilans, odnosno da porast: 1) koeficijenta starosne zavisnosti za jedan procentni poen (p. p.) smanjuje fiskalni bilans za 0,1724 p. p.; 2) učešća stanovništva starijeg od 64 godine za jedan p. p. smanjuje fiskalni bilans za 0,3005 p. p. i 3) izdataka za zdravstvo za jedan p. p. impliciraju niži fiskalni bilans za 2,0895 p. p. Štaviše, ovaj negativan uticaj je evidentan na svim nivoima indikatora starenja stanovništva, potvrđujući da nije neophodno da bilo koji indikator starenja stanovništva dostigne određeni nivo da bi stvorio negativan uticaj na fiskalni bilans. Provera na bazi nezavisnih makroekonomskih kontrolnih varijabli je potvrdila da su sva tri modela dobro definisana i da su uključene odgovarajuće varijable.
Kako bi se obezbedila održivost javnih finansija, kreatori ekonomske politike treba da preduzmu određene mere. Međutim, u domenu fiskalne politike prostor se sužava iz nekoliko razloga: a) rastu rashodi za starenje stanovništva (gde penzije imaju najveće učešće), a poreska osnovica se smanjuje zbog manjeg broja radno aktivnog stanovništva; b) kako starija populacija teže povećava agregatnu potrošnju, smanjuju se i aktivnosti fiskalne politike koje imaju veći fiskalni multiplikator, što dugoročno negativno utiče na privredni rast, c) smanjuje se efikasnost tzv. automatskih stabilizatora, tako da će uticaj starenja stanovništva na javni dug zavisiti od odnosa nivoa kamatne stope i stope rasta BDP. Pa ipak, na raspolaganju su mere koje se odnose na povećanje efikasnosti pružanja zdravstvene zaštite, podsticanje privatne štednje i dobro ciljane penzione reforme. Osim toga, treba razmotriti reforme tržišta rada kako bi se povećalo učešće starijih radnika, žena, mladih i migranata.
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Centar za demografska istraživanja Instituta društvenih nauka
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