Odrast između normativizma i stvarnosti
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Ovaj rad se bavi sve učestalijim raspravama o ograničenjima modela razvoja zasnovanog na visokom rastu i potrošnji, koji su doprineli degradaciji životne sredine i višestrukim krizama. Jedna od alternativa je model odrasta, koji prioritet daje društvenom blagostanju i održivom razvoju umesto rastu baziranom na BDP-u. U radu istražujemo održivost modela odrasta kao alternative. Na osnovu sveobuhvatne analize literature obrađujemo tri istraživačka pitanja: koje su osnovne karakteristike i razlike između odrasta i sličnih novih modela razvoja; da li koncept odrasta može rešiti trenutne razvojne izazove globalno i za različite grupe zemalja iz perspektive kritičara; i da li je model odrasta održiv unutar postojećih globalnih i lokalnih sistema.
Analiza ističe da iako odrast predstavlja teoretski privlačnu alternativu tradicionalnim modelima rasta, suočava se sa značajnim praktičnim izazovima u implementaciji, posebno zbog svoje zavisnosti od dubokih sistemskih promena i promena u javnim vrednostima. Kritičari tvrde da je odrast u velikoj meri nespojiv sa postojećim globalnim ekonomskim sistemom, a njegova primena, posebno u zemljama u razvoju, može pogoršati nejednakosti i otežati osnovni ekonomski razvoj. U empirijskom delu testiramo hipotezu da su zemlje sa jačim neekonomskim razvojnim performansama, poput napretka održivog razvoja prema Indeksu ciljeva održivog razvoja (SDG), uspešnije od onih koje prioritet daju ekonomskim ishodima.
Da bismo to postigli, grafički prikazujemo i analiziramo korelaciju između prosečnog rasta BDP-a i promena u meri održivog razvoja, koristeći Pirsonov koeficijent korelacije. Rangiramo zemlje na osnovu njihovog održivog razvoja i ekonomskih performansi, prosečno izračunavajući te rangove kako bismo identifikovali potencijalne lidere odrasta u poslednjih 20 godina. Naši nalazi ukazuju da, iako je teoretski privlačan, model odrasta se suočava sa značajnim izazovima u praksi, bez statističkih dokaza koji bi podržali negativnu korelaciju između odrasta i napretka u održivom razvoju. Zemlje koje se mogu identifikovati kao one koje prate model odrasta često su one koje ostvaruju loše ekonomske performanse usled sukoba i nestabilnosti, a ne održivog uspeha, što naglašava složenosti i ograničenja implementacije odrasta na širem nivou.
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Centar za demografska istraživanja Instituta društvenih nauka
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