Ljudski kapital u Srbiji sagledan kroz prizmu dostignutog nivoa obrazovanja mladih
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Dostignuti nivo obrazovanja stanovništva je pokazatelj ljudskog kapitala prepoznatog kao nosioca i jednog od presudnih pokretača društveno-ekonomskog razvoja, kao i izvora raznolikosti, što značajno utiče na tempo rasta. Srbiju karakteriše nivo obrazovanja opterećen brojnim problemima i nedostacima, koji se ogledaju kroz neusklađenost između obrazovanja i potražnje na tržištu rada. Većini radne snage nedostaju kompetencije koje bi bile u skladu sa tržištem rada. Ovo istraživanje je sprovedeno na nivou opština za period 1981-2022. Utvrđeni su obrazovni profili i urađena je analiza trenda za obrazovna postignuća izračunavanjem indeksa promene obrazovnih karakteristika. Utvrđivanje stepena iskorišćenosti ljudskog kapitala sprovedeno je primenom koeficijenta iskorišćenosti za mladu populaciju od 25-34 godine.
Tokom godina došlo je do značajnog smanjenja udela stanovništva bez obrazovanja ili sa nepotpunim osnovnim obrazovanjem, ali stanovništvo sa visokim obrazovanjem beleži višestruko povećanje, posebno u poslednje dve decenije. Popis stanovništva 2022. godine pokazao je značajno poboljšanje kvaliteta obrazovanja. Udeo stanovništva sa srednjim obrazovanjem iznosio je 53,08%, a evidentan je porast stanovništva sa visokim obrazovanjem (22%). Mlada visokoobrazovana populacija prepoznata je kao ključni element ljudskog kapitala. Udeo mladog stanovništva sa visokim obrazovanjem kreće se od 15,8% -71,5%, koje je pretežno locirano u Beogradskom regionu i Regionu Vojvodine. Mlada populacija sa tercijarnim stepenom obrazovanja na određenoj teritoriji predstavlja svojevrstan potencijal, a stepen njegove iskorišćenosti je rezultat pozicioniranja na tržištu rada. Prosečna vrednost koeficijenta iskorišćenja za Republiku Srbiju iznosi 69,9%. Najniže vrednosti registrovane su u Sjenici (53,3%), Doljevcu (52,2%), Priboju (58,2%), itd, dok Beogradski region karakterišu visoke vrednosti koeficijenta. Podaci o nezaposlenosti ukazuju na značajnu neusklađenost ponude poslova i potražnje u Srbiji, sa više od pet nezaposlenih na jedan ponuđeni posao. Najpovoljniji odnos je identifikovan u Beogradskom regionu, gde je svaki mladi nezaposleni mogao da konkuriše na 2-3 ponuđena posla. Uravnoteženi odnosi se detektuju i u Regionu Vojvodine, dok je mlada populacija u Regionu Južne i Istočne Srbije i Regionu Šumadije i Zapadne Srbije ograničena u zapošljavanju. Najugroženije su demografski male i nerazvijene opštine sa više od deset mladih nezaposlenih lica po jednom ponuđenom radnom mestu (Medveđa - 58,8; Tutin - 14,5; Osečina - 14,4; itd.).
U cilju temeljnog sagledavanja ljudskog razvoja, pristup kvantifikaciji ljudskog kapitala treba da obuhvati i druge dimenzije, kao što su demografska, društvena, zdravstvena, ekonomska, tehnološka (inovacija) itd. Stoga je širina istraživanja ljudskog kapitala ključna, kako bi se odredili njen stvarni potencijal i perspektiva razvoja.
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Centar za demografska istraživanja Instituta društvenih nauka
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