Depopulacija i duboko starenje: prostor bivše Jugoslavije i zapadnog Balkana između druge demografske tranzicije i emigracije

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Objavljeno: Aug 20, 2024
DOI: https://doi.org/10.59954/stnv.615
Ključne reči:
starenje stanovništva, emigracija, nizak fertilitet, depopulacija, druga demografska tranzicija

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Damir Josipovič
Institut za etničke studije, Ljubljana
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9321-4371

Apstrakt

U članku se razrađuje koncept dubokog starenja gde su ukupni efekti starenja druge demografske tranzicije, usled niskog fertiliteta ispod proste reprodukcije stanovništva, pojačani povećanom emigracijom fertilnog kontingenta, što znači dodatni gubitak aktivnog stanovništva. Proces dubokog starenja stoga ubrzava opadanje ukupne populacije. S druge strane gubitak fertilnog kontingenta može postići prividan porast ukupne stope fertiliteta pri čemu tempo efekt fertiliteta igra odlučujuću ulogu. Članak se najpre bavi pitanjem demografskih promena u evropskim makroregionima nakon pada Gvozdene zavese (1990–2020). Najznačajnija je preorientacija tradicionalne neto emigracije  od južno- i istočno- evropskog ka jugoistočno-evropskom bazenu. Zatim se analiziraju demografske promene na teritoriji bivše Jugoslavije kako bi se procenile razmere ovih promena u poslednjem međupopisnom periodu (2011–2022). Nadovezujući se na nalaze ranijih istraživanja gde se ističe gubitak stanovništva i negativan razvoj migracija, ovde se pristupa dubljoj strukturi problema populacionih gubitaka u većini zemalja nastalih posle raspada Jugoslavije. S druge strane, treba napomenuti da postoje značajne fluktuacije i varijacije u inače niskom fertilitetu u regionu Zapadnog Balkana. Istovremeno, nizak nivo ukupne stope fertiliteta ne mora da znači i smanjenje ukupnog rodnog ponašanja, što postaje vidljivo kroz primenu aproksimativne stope završnog fertiliteta. Migraciona komponenta promene stanovništva zbog delimično nepostojećih, nesigurnih ili oskudnih podataka procenjena je indirektno kroz međupopisno poređenje. Primenjene su međupopisne projekcije fertilnog kontingenta da bi se procenio stepen starenja i odredio položaj u procesu dubokog starenja stanovništva. Rezultati pokazuju da su Hrvatska i Srbija najizraženije u procesu dubokog starenja, posebno u mlađim skupinama fertilnog kontingenta, dok je većina ostalih zemalja, osim Slovenije, pogođena gubitkom celokupnog fertilnog kontingenta koji će bez sumnje uticati na dalji demografski gubitak ovih prostora u budućnosti.

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Kako citirati
Josipovič, D. (2024). Depopulacija i duboko starenje: prostor bivše Jugoslavije i zapadnog Balkana između druge demografske tranzicije i emigracije. Stanovništvo, 62(S1), S57–S84. https://doi.org/10.59954/stnv.615
Broj časopisa
God. 62 Br. S1 (2024): Specijalni broj: Aktuelna populaciona pitanja u postjugoslovenskim zemljama
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Ovaj rad je pod Creative Commons Autorstvo-Nekomercijalno 4.0 Internacionalna licenca.

Centar za demografska istraživanja Instituta društvenih nauka

Biografija autora

Damir Josipovič, Institut za etničke studije, Ljubljana

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