Institucije i dobro upravljanje kao faktor migratornih kretanja u Evropi
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Apstrakt
Cilj istraživanja je da se utvrdi relativan značaj dve grupe faktora koje determinišu stopu neto migracija: ekonomskih, kao što je visina bruto prosečne mesečne zarade i neekonomskih, koji obuhvataju kvalitet institucionalnog uređenja oslonjen prevashodno na indikatore kontrole korupcije i vladavine prava. Prema neoklasičnoj teoriji migracija ekonomski faktori imaju dominantan uticaj na donošenje odluke o migracijama. Institucionalna teorija migracija zagovara stav da institucionalni i upravljački faktori imaju prevagu nad ekonomskim. Na uzorku od 48 evropskih zemalja, za period 1996 – 2021. godine primenom tehnika ekonometrijske analize panel podataka identifikovani su prediktori stope neto migracija u evropskim zemljama. Analiza je potvrdila da je kvalitet institucionalnog okvira od izuzetne važnosti i da su vladavina prava i kontrola korupcije imali snažniji uticaj na neto migracije u zemljama Evrope od bruto prosečnih mesečnih zarada. Istraživanjem je takođe potvrđeno i to da su institucionalni faktori imali snažniji uticaj na neto migracije u manje razvijenim evropskim zemljama koje nisu članice Evropske unije nego u 28 zemalja članica. Manje razvijene evropske zemlje moraju posebnu pažnju posvetiti izgradnji institucija, vladavini prava i kontroli korupcije ukoliko žele da zaustave negativne trendove u neto migracijama, te da ovi faktori imaju prevagu u odnosu na ekonomske koji su bili dominantni u XX veku.
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Centar za demografska istraživanja Instituta društvenih nauka
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