Demografske determinante energetske potrošnje u Evropskoj uniji: Rezultati ekonometrijske analize
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Upotreba fosilnih goriva jeste ključni generator štetnih gasova koji izazivaju efekat staklene bašte i dovode do globalnih klimatskih promena, zbog čega se upravljanje rastućom globalnom energetskom tražnjom nameće kao jedan od ključnih prioriteta. Ovaj članak je posvećen istraživanju najvažnijih demografskih i ekonomskih determinanti energetske potrošnje u 28 zemalja članica Evropske unije za vremenski period 1960-2014. godine. Analiza je sprovedena na osnovu logaritmovanog modifikovanog STIRPAT modela primenom tehnika ekonometrijske analize panel podataka. Dobijeni rezultati pokazuju da obe posmatrane demografske varijable (ukupan broj stanovnika i udeo starih 65 i više godina u ukupnom broju stanovnika) vrše pozitivan uticaj na potrošnju energije. Povećanje broja stanovnika za 1% dovodi do rasta potrošnje energije između 1,59% i 1,76%. Takođe, rast udela stanovništva sa 65 i više godina od 1% rezultuje povećanjem energetske potrošnje od oko 0,43%. Visoka elastičnost potrošnje energije u odnosu na broj stanovnika najverovatnije se može objasniti činjenicom da demografski rast otežava i usložnjava procese planiranja efikasne upotrebe energetskih resursa. Pozitivnu elastičnost u odnosu na udeo starije populacije treba shvatiti kao dokaz da evropska društva sa većim udelom starije populacije troše više energije od društava sa većim udelom mlađeg stanovništva. Osim toga, nalazi ove studije upućuju na zaključak da važan uticaj na potrošnju energije u EU vrši i nivo ekonomske aktivnosti zemalja i to u skladu sa konceptom Kuznjecove krive okruženja (EKC). Nivo per capita dohotka koji je potreban da bi se EKC efekat ispoljio kreće se između 54.183 i 81.552 dolara.
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Centar za demografska istraživanja Instituta društvenih nauka
Reference
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