Uticaj kineske populacione politike na tržište radne snage

Bočna strana članka

PDF (English)
Objavljeno: Jul 10, 2023
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2298/STNV220609003F
Ključne reči:
Kina, populacija, politika, radna snaga, tržište rada

Glavni sadržaj članka

Sanja Filipović
Poslovni fakultet, Univerzitet Singidunum, Beograd
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8166-8042
Jelena Ignjatović
Akademija strukovnih studija, Odsek za poljoprivredne i poslovne studije i turizam, Šabac
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9946-6916

Apstrakt

Suočena sa problemom visokog nivoa siromaštva, Kina je 1980. godine uvela „politiku jednog deteta” i započela sistemske privredne reforme koje su dovele do snažnog privrednog razvoja zemlje. Unapređenjem prosečnog životnog standarda promenjeni su i određeni socioekonomski aspekti koji se odnose na zaposlenje žena, težnju za višim obrazovanjem i odlaganje rađanja i broj dece. Te promene ne samo da su uticale na smanjen broj rođene dece i starenje stanovništva, nego su se odrazile i na tržište rada. Kako je dugi niz godina prikupljanje zvaničnih demografskih podataka bilo nepouzdano i nepotpuno, stvarni efekti višedecenijske populacione politike na tržište rada nisu se mogli u potpunosti sagledati. Pa ipak, evidentan trend smanjenja ukupne stope rađanja ukazao je na problem starenja nacije i nedostatak radne snage, što je dovelo do toga da se 2013. godine parovima prvi put dozvoli da, pod određenim uslovima, mogu imati po dvoje dece. Međutim, kako mera nije dala efekte, vlada je 2015. godine ukinula „politiku jednog deteta“. Ograničavajući se na period 2010–2020. godine, cilj istraživanja je da utvrdi efekte kineske populacione politike na izabrane pokazatelje tržišta rada: radna snaga po godinama i polu u ruralnim i urbanim sredinama, stopa učešća različitih kategorija u radnoj snazi i stopa nezaposlenosti po kategorijama. Rezultati istraživanja za posmatrani period (2010–2020) pokazuju rast radne snage, dok od 2018. godine raste stopa nezaposlenosti. Primetno je da raste broj radne snage u gradovima, dok u ruralnim sredinama opada. S druge strane, nezaposlenost je niža u ruralnim sredinama, dok je u urbanim sredinama evidentan rast nezaposlenosti. Istraživanje je pokazalo da je dugogodišnja primena populacione politike rezultirala većim brojem muške populacije, odnosno većim učešćem muškaraca u radnoj snazi i takav trend će se nastaviti. Uprkos merama za unapređenje položaja žena na radu, još uvek socijalna sigurnost žena nije zagarantovana, te se žene teže odlučuju na proširenje porodice. Kako Kina ima ambiciozne planove u ekonomskom razvoju, definisanje adekvatne populacione i socijalne politike je ključno za njihovu realizaciju. Nedostatak radne snage će biti još izraženiji kako se bude razvijala visokotehnološka industrija, jer će naročito nedostajati visokokvalifikovana radna snaga. Kina ima 170 miliona kvalifikovanih radnika, ali među ukupno zaposlenom populacijom samo 7% je visokokvalifikovanih radnika. Trenutno najveći problem je nedostatak kvalifikovane radne snage u proizvodnom sektoru, a očekuje se najveći deficit radnika u prerađivačkoj industriji, odnosno automobilskoj industriji.

Preuzimanja

Podaci o preuzimanju još uvek nisu dostupni.

Detalji članka

Kako citirati
Filipović, S., & Ignjatović, J. (2023). Uticaj kineske populacione politike na tržište radne snage. Stanovništvo, 61(1), 69–89. https://doi.org/10.2298/STNV220609003F
Broj časopisa
God. 61 Br. 1 (2023)
Sekcija
Članci
Creative Commons License

Ovaj rad je pod Creative Commons Autorstvo-Nekomercijalno 4.0 Internacionalna licenca.

Centar za demografska istraživanja Instituta društvenih nauka

Crossref
Scopus
Google Scholar
Europe PMC

Reference

AFP (2021, May 31). Forty years of population policy in China: A timeline. The Economic Times. Retrieved from https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/forty-years-of-population-policy-in-china-a-timeline/articleshow/83111717.cms

Aird, S. J. (1982). Population Studies and Population Policy in China. Population and Development Review, 8(2), 267-297. https://doi.org/10.2307/1972987

Allen, K. (2021, May 31). China allows three children in major policy shift. BBC News. Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-57303592

Angrist, J. (2002). How Do Sex Ratios Affect Marriage and Labor Markets? Evidence from America’s Second Generation. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 117(3), 997-1038. https://www.jstor.org/stable/4132494

Antevski, M. (2013). Osnove održivosti novog modela rasta kineske ekonomije. Međunarodni problemi, 65(4), 423-443. http://dx.doi.org/10.2298/MEDJP1304423A

Banister, J. (1984). Population Policy and Trends in China, 1978–83. The China Quarterly, 100, 717–741. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0305741000024061

Becker, G. S., & Lewis, H. G. (1973). On the Interaction between the Quantity and Quality of Children. Journal of Political Economy, 81(2), 279–288. https://www.jstor.org/stable/1840425

Bloomberg Equality (2021, August 30). China Sees Skilled Labor Shortages Worsening Amid Tech Push. Bloomberg. Retrieved from https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-30/china-targets-55-million-jobs-better-worker-rights-in-new-plan

Bongaarts, J., & Greenhalgh, S. (1985). An Alternative to the One-Child Policy in China. Population and Development Review, 11(4), 585–617. https://doi.org/10.2307/1973456

Borjas, G. (2000). Labor Economics. Cambridge: McGraw-Hill.

Buckley, C. (2013, November 15). China to Ease Longtime Policy of 1-Child Limit. The New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/16/world/asia/china-to-loosen-its-one-child-policy.html

Buckley, C. (2015, October 29). China Ends One-Child Policy, Allowing Families Two Children. The New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/30/world/asia/china-end-one-child-policy.html

Cai, F., Wang, D., & Du, Y. (2002). Regional disparity and economic growth in China: The impact of labor market distortions. China Economic Review, 13(2-3), 197–212. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1043-951X(02)00072-X

Cai, Y. (2010). China's Below-Replacement Fertility: Government Policy or Socioeconomic Development? Population and Development Review, 36(3), 419–440. https://www.jstor.org/stable/25749195

Cai, F., & Zang, L. (2013). Population Change and Resulting Slowdown in Potential GDP Growth in China. China & World Economy, 21(2), 1-14. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1749-124X.2013.12012.x

Chang, C. (1992). Family Planning in Contemporary China. Contemporary China Publishing House: 14–16 (In Chinese).

Chen, X., Peng, W., Liao, L., Dai, N., & Zhao, F. (2020). Can Quantitative Easing Population Policy Rescue China's Sinking Fertility Rate? A Comparative Examination between Jiangsu and Zhejiang. CyberGeo: European journal of geography. http://dx.doi.org/10.4000/cybergeo.34066

Denyer, S., & Gowen, A. (2018, April18). Too many men. The Washington Post. Retrieved from https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2018/world/too-many-men/

Disgupta, S., Matsumoto, M., & Xia, C. (2015). Women in the labour market in China. ILO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific (ILO Asia-Pacific working paper series). Retrieved from https://www.ilo.org/wcmsp5/groups/public/---asia/---ro-bangkok/documents/publication/wcms/371375.pdf

Engineer, M., King, I., & Roy, N. (2008). The human development index as a criterion for optimal planning. Indian Growth and Development Review, 1(2), 172–192. http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/17538250810903774

Fang, C., & Wang, D. (2005). China’s demographic transition: implications for growth. In R. Garnaut & L. Song (Eds.), The China Boom and its Discontents (pp. 34–52). ANU Press. http://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctt2jbkcr.11

Feng, W., Cai, Y., & Baochang, G. (2013). Population, Policy and Politics: How Will History Judge China's One-Child Policy? Population and development review, 38(1), 115-129. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00555.x

Filipović, S., & Ignjatović, J. (2021a). Chinese investment in Central Eastern Europe and the Western Balkan. Culture of Polis, 18(45), 73-86. https://doi.org/10.51738/Kpolisa2021.18.2r.1.05

Filipović, S., & Ignjatović, J. (2021b). International relations through the prism of the new technological division of power. International problems, 73(4), 637-666. https://doi.org/10.2298/MEDJP2104637F

Goldman, R. (2021, May 31). From One Child to Three: How China’s Family Planning Policies Have Evolved. The New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/31/world/asia/china-child-policy.html

Gollin, D., Lagakos, D., & Waugh, M. E. (2014). The Agricultural Productivity Gap. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 129(2), 939–993. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjt056

Greenhalgh, S. (2005). Missile Science, Population Science: The Origins of China’s One-Child Policy. The China Quarterly 182, 253–276. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0305741005000184

Greenhalgh, S., & Winkler, E. (2005). Governing China's Population: From Leninist to Neoliberal Biopolitics. Stanford: Stanford University Press.

Gu, B., Wang, F., Guo, Z., & Zhang, E. (2007). China's Local and National Fertility Policies at the End of the Twentieth Century. Population and Development Review, 33(1), 129–148. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2007.00161.x

Guo, A., Ding, X., Zhong, F., Cheng, Q., & Huang, C. (2019). Predicting the Future Chinese Population using Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, the Sixth National Population Census, and a PDE Model. Sustainability, 11(13), 3686. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11133686

Harison, V., & Palumbo, D. (2019, October 9). Kako je Kina postala svetsko ekonomsko čudo. BBC News. Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/serbian/lat/svet-49941880

He, X., & Zhu, R. (2015). Fertility and Female Labour Force Participation: New Causal Evidence from Urban China. Munich Personal RePEc Archive (MPRA Paper No. 65650, 1-15). Retrieved from https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/65650/

International Labour Organization (ILOSTAT) (2022). Labour force participation rate by sex and age- ILO modelled estimates. Datasets. Retrieved from https://www.ilo.org/shinyapps/bulkexplorer59/?lang=en&segment=indicator&id=EAP_2WAP_SEX_AGE_RT_A

Jiang, Q., Li, S., & Feldman, W. M. (2013). China's Population Policy at the Crossroads: Social Impacts and Prospects. Asian Journal of Social Science, 41(2), 193–218. https://doi.org/10.1163/15685314-12341298

Kaufman, S. V. (1998). A Response to Chaos: The United States, the Great Leap Forward, and the Cultural Revolution, 1961-1968. The Journal of American-East Asian Relations 7(1/2), 73-92. https://www.jstor.org/stable/23613308

Ke, M., & Li, Y. (2021). China needs 11.8m workers. Here's how to close its labour gap. Paper presented at “World economic forum”, China, July 16. Retrieved from https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/07/how-to-fix-china-labour-shortage/

Krugman, P. (2021, October 22). Is China in a Big Trouble? The New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/22/opinion/china-bubble-economy.html

Li, H., Li, L., Wu, B., & Xiong, Y. (2012). The End of Cheap Chinese Labor. The Journal of Economic Perspectives, 26(4), 57–74. http://www.jstor.org/stable/23290280

Li, H., Yi, J., & Zhang, J. (2015). Fertility, Household Structure, and Parental Labor Supply: Evidence from Rural China. IZA Institute of Labor Economics (IZA discussion paper No. 9342). Retrieved from https://docs.iza.org/dp9342.pdf

Ma, X., & Zhang, J. (2019). Population Policy and its Influences on Female Labor Supply: Evidence from China. Asian Development Policy Review, 7(4), 261–276. https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.107.2019.74.261.276

Ma, X. (2011). Female labor participation in China: Marketization and changes in urban labor market. Tokyo: Keio University Press.

McDonell, S. (2021, May 31). China allows three children in major policy shift. BBC News. Retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-57303592

Meng, X., Qian, N., & Yared, P. (2015). The Institutional Causes of China’s Great Famine, 1959-1961. The Review of Economic Studies, 82(4), 1568–1611. https://www.jstor.org/stable/43869477

Merli, M. G., & Morgan, S. P. (2011). Below Replacement Fertility Preferences in Shanghai. Population, 66(3-4), 519-542. https://doi.org/10.3917%2Fpope.1103.0519

Morgan, S., Zhigang, G., & Hayford, S. (2009). China's Below-Replacement Fertility: Recent Trends and Future Prospects. Population and Development Review, 35(3), 605–629. https://doi.org/10.1111%2Fj.1728-4457.2009.00298.x

Myers Lee, S., Wu, J., & Fu, C. (2020, January 17). China’s Looming Crisis: A Shrinking Population. The New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/01/17/world/asia/china-population-crisis.html?mtrref=www.google.com&gwh=D3982C1591BC32159BD4B90EBBB1DF84&gwt=regi&assetType=REGIWALL

National Bureau of Statistic of China (2022). Data. Statistical database. Retrieved from http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/Statisticaldata/AnnualData/

Nulimaimaiti, M. (2022, January 13). China’s factories are wrestling with labour shortages. Age-old prejudice partly explains why. China Macro Economy. Retrieved from https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3163097/chinas-factories-are-wrestling-labour-shortages-age-old

Pan, J. (2002). Female employment and social security in China during the economic transition. Management World, 7, 59-68.

Parant, A. (2008). Population and population policy: French model. Stanovništvo, 46(1), 7–39. https://doi.org/10.2298/STNV0801007P

Perić, M., & Filipović, S. (2021). Foreign Direct Investments and Labour Force Indicators in Transition Economies: Linear Mixed-Effects Models Impact Analysis. Sociológia, 53(3), 238-265. https://doi.org/10.31577/sociologia.2021.53.3.9

Phillips, T. (2016, May 11). The Cultural Revolution: all you need to know about China’s political convulsion. The Guardian. Retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/11/the-cultural-revolution-50-years-on-all-you-need-to-know-about-chinas-political-convulsion

Ping, J. (2019, June 30). Kineski razvoj prilika je za cijeli svijet. Oslobođenje. Retrieved from https://www.oslobodjenje.ba/dosjei/teme/kineski-razvoj-prilika-je-za-cijeli-svijet-468379

Population Census Office under the State Council (PCO) (2012). Tabulation on the 2010 Population Census of the People's Republic of China. Retrieved from http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/Statisticaldata/CensusData/rkpc2010/indexce.htm

Qian, N. (2009). Quantity-Quality and the One Child Policy:The Only-Child Disadvantage in School Enrollment in Rural China. National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc (NBER Working Paper w14973). http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w14973

Retherford, R. D., Choe, M. J., Chen, J., Xiru, Li., & Hongyan, C. (2005). How Far Has Fertility in China Really Declined? Population and Development Review, 31(1), 57-84. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2005.00052.x

Reuters (1982, December 05). Chinese parliament approves a new constitution. The New York Times, SR22. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/1982/12/05/world/chinese-parliament-approves-a-new-constitution.html

Rosenthal, E. (2003, July 20). Bias for Boys Leads to Sale of Baby Girls in China. The New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2003/07/20/world/bias-for-boys-leads-to-sale-of-baby-girls-in-china.html

Rosenzweig, M., & R. Zhang, J. (2009). Do Population Control Policies Induce More Human Capital Investment? Twins, Birth Weight and China’s “One-Child” Policy. The Review of Economic Studies, 76(3), 1149–1174. https://www.jstor.org/stable/40247636

Sharping, T. (2003). Birth Control in China, 1949-2000. Population Policy and Demographic Development. London, New York: Routledge Curzon.

Smil, V. (1999). Chinas great famine: 40 years later. British Medical Journal, 319(7225), 1619-1621. https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1127087/

Textor, C. (2021). Distribution of the workforce across economic sectors in China from 2010 to 2020. Statista. Retrieved from https://www.statista.com/statistics/270327/distribution-of-the-workforce-across-economic-sectors-in-china/

The Economist (2021, June 24). At 54, China’s average retirement age is too low. The Economist. Retrieved from https://www.economist.com/china/2021/06/22/chinas-average-retirement-age-is-ridiculously-low-54

The State Council the People’s of Republic of China (2021). China releases employment blueprint to secure jobs. Home. Retrieved from http://english.www.gov.cn/news/videos/202109/01/content_WS612f2722c6d0df57f98df7b4.html

The World Bank (2022). Metadata Glossary. DataBank. Retrieved from https://databank.worldbank.org/metadataglossary/health-nutrition-and-population-statistics-by-wealth-quintile/series/SP.DYN.TFRT.Q5#:~:text=Total%20fertility%20rate%20(TFR)%3A,specific%20fertility%20rates%20currently%20observed

United Nations (2019). World Population Prospects 2019. DESA. Retrieved from https://espas.secure.europarl.europa.eu/orbis/sites/default/files/generated/document/en/WPP2019_Highlights.pdf

United Nations (2022a). General fertility rate. Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia. Retrieved from https://archive.unescwa.org/general-fertility-rate

United Nations (2022b). World Population Prospects 2022. DESA. Retrieved from https://population.un.org/wpp/Download/Standard/Population/

United Nations (2022c). Total fertility rate (TFR). Statistics. Retrieved from http://data.un.org/Data.aspx?q=tfr&d=SOWC&f=inID%3a127

United Nations (2022d). Per capita GDP at current prices - US dollars. Retrieved from https://data.un.org/Data.aspx?d=SNAAMA&f=grID%3A101%3BcurrID%3AUSD%3BpcFlag%3A1

United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) (2016). Human development reports, Risk-Proofing the Western Balkans: Empowering People to Prevent Disasters. Retrieved from https://hdr.undp.org/system/files/documents//riskproofingthewesternbalkanspdf.pdf

United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) (2020). Human development reports: Human Development Data. Data center. Retrieved from https://hdr.undp.org/en/composite/trends

United States Census Bureau (2022). U.S. Census Bureau Current Population. Retrieved from https://www.census.gov/popclock/print.php?component=counter

Vanderhorst, М. А. (2018, May 15). Chinese Women Delay Starting a Family. Pulitzer center. Retrieved from https://pulitzercenter.org/stories/chinese-women-delay-starting-family

Wang, F., Zhao, L., & Zhao, Z. (2016). China’s Family Planning Policies and Their Labor Market Consequences. IZA: The Institute for the Study of Labor (Discussion Paper No. 9746). Retrieved from https://docs.iza.org/dp9746.pdf

Wee, S. L. (2021, May 31). China Says It Will Allow Couples to Have 3 Children, Up From 2. The New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/31/world/asia/china-three-child-policy.html

White, T. (2006). China's Longest Campaign: Birth Planning in the People's Republic, 1949-2005. New York: Cornell University Press.

Wu, Z., Schimmele, C., & Li, S. (2008). Demographic change and economic reform. In A, Sweetman & J, Zhang (Eds), Economic Transitions with Chinese Characteristics: Thirty Years of Reform and Opening Up. McGill-Queen's University Press, Queen's Policy Studies Series, Montreal and Kingston.

Wu, S., Yang, D., Xia, F., Zhang, X., Huo, J., Cai, T., & Sun, J. (2022). The Effect of Labor Reallocation and Economic Growth in China. Sustainability, 14(7), 1-22. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14074312

Yang, F. (2003). Historical Research on Family Planning of Contemporary China. (Doctoral dissertation In Chinese). Retrieved from Zhejiang University in China.

Yardley, J. (2008, February 29). China to reconsider One-Child Limit. The New York Times. Retrieved from https://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/29/world/asia/29china.html

Yu, Y., & Liu, S. (2010). Holding up half the sky? Are Chinese women given equal rights in political participation? Paper presented at IDAS Symposium “The rising Asia Pacific Region: Opportunities and challenges for cooperation”, Taiwan, March 9. Retrieved from https://ah.nccu.edu.tw/bitstream/140.119/41451/2/NCCURhandle41451.pdf

Yu, H., Cao, J., & Kang, S. (2018, December 13). Labour in the past, present, and future: A trilemma in China. VoxEU. Retrieved from https://voxeu.org/article/labour-past-present-and-future-trilemma-china

Zeng, Y. (2007). Options for Fertility Policy Transition in China. Population and Development Review, 33(2), 215-246. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2007.00168.x