Uticaj kineske populacione politike na tržište radne snage

Glavni sadržaj članka

Sanja Filipović
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8166-8042
Jelena Ignjatović
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9946-6916

Apstrakt

Suočena sa problemom visokog nivoa siromaštva, Kina je 1980. godine uvela „politiku jednog deteta” i započela sistemske privredne reforme koje su dovele do snažnog privrednog razvoja zemlje. Unapređenjem prosečnog životnog standarda promenjeni su i određeni socioekonomski aspekti koji se odnose na zaposlenje žena, težnju za višim obrazovanjem i odlaganje rađanja i broj dece. Te promene ne samo da su uticale na smanjen broj rođene dece i starenje stanovništva, nego su se odrazile i na tržište rada. Kako je dugi niz godina prikupljanje zvaničnih demografskih podataka bilo nepouzdano i nepotpuno, stvarni efekti višedecenijske populacione politike na tržište rada nisu se mogli u potpunosti sagledati. Pa ipak, evidentan trend smanjenja ukupne stope rađanja ukazao je na problem starenja nacije i nedostatak radne snage, što je dovelo do toga da se 2013. godine parovima prvi put dozvoli da, pod određenim uslovima, mogu imati po dvoje dece. Međutim, kako mera nije dala efekte, vlada je 2015. godine ukinula „politiku jednog deteta“. Ograničavajući se na period 2010–2020. godine, cilj istraživanja je da utvrdi efekte kineske populacione politike na izabrane pokazatelje tržišta rada: radna snaga po godinama i polu u ruralnim i urbanim sredinama, stopa učešća različitih kategorija u radnoj snazi i stopa nezaposlenosti po kategorijama. Rezultati istraživanja za posmatrani period (2010–2020) pokazuju rast radne snage, dok od 2018. godine raste stopa nezaposlenosti. Primetno je da raste broj radne snage u gradovima, dok u ruralnim sredinama opada. S druge strane, nezaposlenost je niža u ruralnim sredinama, dok je u urbanim sredinama evidentan rast nezaposlenosti. Istraživanje je pokazalo da je dugogodišnja primena populacione politike rezultirala većim brojem muške populacije, odnosno većim učešćem muškaraca u radnoj snazi i takav trend će se nastaviti. Uprkos merama za unapređenje položaja žena na radu, još uvek socijalna sigurnost žena nije zagarantovana, te se žene teže odlučuju na proširenje porodice. Kako Kina ima ambiciozne planove u ekonomskom razvoju, definisanje adekvatne populacione i socijalne politike je ključno za njihovu realizaciju. Nedostatak radne snage će biti još izraženiji kako se bude razvijala visokotehnološka industrija, jer će naročito nedostajati visokokvalifikovana radna snaga. Kina ima 170 miliona kvalifikovanih radnika, ali među ukupno zaposlenom populacijom samo 7% je visokokvalifikovanih radnika. Trenutno najveći problem je nedostatak kvalifikovane radne snage u proizvodnom sektoru, a očekuje se najveći deficit radnika u prerađivačkoj industriji, odnosno automobilskoj industriji.

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Filipović, S., & Ignjatović, J. (2023). Uticaj kineske populacione politike na tržište radne snage. Stanovništvo, 61(1), 69–89. https://doi.org/10.2298/STNV220609003F
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