Prostorno-vremenska analiza dinamike pandemije COVID-19 u ranoj fazi u Srbiji na osnovu polno-starosne strukture obolelog stanovništva
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Apstrakt
Pandemija COVID-19 eskalirala je u gotovo svim krajevima sveta u veoma kratkom periodu. Brzina širenja pandemije bila je determinisana stepenom mobilnosti stanovništva, a rizik od težine oboljenja i smrtnosti bio je uslovljen demografskim karakteristikama i zdravstvenim statusom stanovništva, kao i kapacitetima zdravstvenog sistema za lečenja pacijenata.
Ovaj rad ima cilj da proceni prostorno-vremenske obrasce stanovništva obolelog od bolesti COVID-19, prema polnoj i starosnoj strukturi, u Srbiji u ranoj fazi, kao i to da li su ti obrasci povezani sa merama javnog zdravlja koje su bile na snazi u tom periodu. S ciljem utvrđivanja lokalnih varijacija i statistički značajnog prostornog grupisanja broja obolelih na 100.000 stanovnika opštine u periodu od 15. aprila do 9. juna, korišćen je lokalni indikator prostorne autokorelacije — Lokalni Moran indeks. Analiza statistički značajne promene trenda broja obolelih (u ukupnom stanovništvu i na osnovu polno-starosne strukture), kao i broja umrlih u istom periodu, procenjeni su pomoću Joinpoint softvera za analizu trenda. Takođe, identifikovan je trenutak kada se statistički značajna promena u trendu dogodila i kvantifikovana je u procentima.
Rezultati su pokazali da postoji izrazita polarizacija prostornog grupisanja broja obolelih od bolesti COVID-19 u ranoj fazi. Tako, primetno je prostorno grupisanje opština sa višim relativnim vrednostima broja obolelih na jugu i jugoistoku, dok se klaster opština sa nižim vrednostima zapaža na severu Srbije. Promena u trendu broja obolelih, u smislu zamene opadajućeg trenda rastućim, usledila je nakon odluke o popuštanju mera (ponovno otvaranje kafića, restorana, frizerskih salona, teretana, tržnih centara itd.), što je uslovilo povećanu interakciju među stanovništvom. Kada je u pitanju promena trenda broja obolelih među polovima, nisu identifikovane značajne razlike. Međutim, prilikom istraživanja promena trenda prema starosnoj strukturi obolelog stanovništva, razlike su izraženije. Rastući trend broja obolelih starosne grupe do 19 godina usledio je nešto više od dve nedelje nakon ponovnog otvaranja vrtića, osnovnih i srednjih škola, kao i produženog boravka. Sličan trend zabeležen je i kod stanovništva starosti od 20 do 64 godina. Kohorta radno sposobnog stanovništva imala je najveći stepen slobode kretanja za vreme vanrednog stanja, ali i nakon njegovog ukidanja (6. maj). Kod stanovništva starijeg od 65 godina primetna je smena opadajućeg, rastućeg i, na kraju analiziranog perioda, ponovo opadajućeg trenda. Dobijeni nalazi mogu pružiti značajne informacije donosiocima odluka i kreatorima politike javnog zdravlja i poslužiti kao smernica za buduće ciljane mere ka određenim područjima i starosnim kategorijama stanovništva pri sprečavanju ili ublažavanju širenja pandemije COVID-19.
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Ovaj rad je pod Creative Commons Autorstvo-Nekomercijalno 4.0 Internacionalna licenca.
Centar za demografska istraživanja Instituta društvenih nauka
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