COVID-19 i prekomerna smrtnost: Da li je bilo moguće smanjiti broj umrlih u Sloveniji?

Bočna strana članka

PDF (English)
Objavljeno: Jun 28, 2021
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2298/STNV2101017J
Ključne reči:
umrli od bolesti COVID-19, prekomerna smrtnost, starosna struktura, stariji, projekcije stanovništva

Glavni sadržaj članka

Damir Josipovič
Inštitut za narodnostna vprašanja, Ljubljana, Slovenija
https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9321-4371

Apstrakt

Rad predstavlja nove podatke o starosnoj strukturi hospitalizovanih pacijenata sa teškom akutnom respiratornom infekcijom, sa ili bez virusa COVID-19, prema polu, mestu infekcije i regionu. Potvrđena je glavna hipoteza da su smrtni slučajevi od bolesti COVID-19 precenjeni uprkos velikom udelu prekomerne smrti, pri čemu se u prvi plan postavlja važno pitanje demografskog kontingenta rizičnog stanovništva. Prema tome, glavni razlog koji sugeriše da je neophodno umanjiti zvaničan broj umrlih od bolesti COVID-19 treba tražiti u iscrpljenom demografskom segmentu starijeg stanovništva, čiji je mortalitet u 2020. godini bio za 19 procenata viši u poređenju sa prethodnim petogodišnjim periodom (2015–2019). Demografske razlike između regiona su ogromne i statistički se podudaraju sa razlikama u odnosu „zaraženih naspram preminulih”. Prekomerni mortalitet u 2020. godini bio je neobično visok, ali je projektovana vrednost za 2020. godinu, zasnovana na prethodnom petogodišnjem (2015-2019) obrascu mortaliteta prema starosnim grupama, doprinela trećini tog viška. Zaključak je da se za četvrtinu navodnih smrtnih slučajeva od bolesti COVID-19  (otprilike 600 od oko 3.300 u 2020. godini) očekivalo da će se dogoditi u 2020. godini.

Preuzimanja

Podaci o preuzimanju još uvek nisu dostupni.

Detalji članka

Kako citirati
Josipovič, D. (2021). COVID-19 i prekomerna smrtnost: Da li je bilo moguće smanjiti broj umrlih u Sloveniji?. Stanovništvo, 59(1), 17–30. https://doi.org/10.2298/STNV2101017J
Broj časopisa
God. 59 Br. 1 (2021): COVID-19 u regionu bivše Jugoslavije: prvi demografski uvidi
Sekcija
Članci

Centar za demografska istraživanja Instituta društvenih nauka

Biografija autora

Damir Josipovič, Inštitut za narodnostna vprašanja, Ljubljana, Slovenija

Viši naučni saradnik

Crossref
Scopus
Google Scholar
Europe PMC

Reference

Acuña-Zegarra, M. A., Díaz-Infante, S., Baca-Carrasco, D., & Olmos-Liceaga, D. (2021). COVID-19 optimal vaccination policies: A modeling study on efficacy, natural and vaccine-induced immunity responses. Mathematical Biosciences, 337, 108614. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mbs.2021.108614

Anderson, D. C., Grey, T., Kennelly S., & O'Neill D., (2020). Nursing Home Design and COVID-19: Balancing Infection Control, Quality of Life, and Resilience. Journal of the American Medical Directors Association, 21(11), 1519-1524. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jamda.2020.09.005

Black, J., Aung, P., Nolan, M., Roney, E., Poon, R., Hennessy, D., … Sarkis, S. (2021). Epidemiological evaluation of sewage surveillance as a tool to detect the presence of COVID-19 cases in a low case load setting. Science of The Total Environment, 786, 147469. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.147469

Borger, P., Malhotra, R. K., Yeadon, M., Clare, C., McKernan, K., Steger, K., … Kämmerer, U. (2021). Addendum - Corman Drosten Review Report by an International Consortium of Scientists in Life Sciences (ICSLS). Retrieved from https://zenodo.org/record/4433503#.YM3g1mgzZPY

Dolenc, D. (2020). On 1 December 1981, more than 200 residents of Slovenia died in one day. Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia. Retrieved from https://www.stat.si/StatWeb/en/News/Index/9288

Ghosh, R., Dubey, M. J., Chatterjee, S., & Dubey, S. (2020). Impact of COVID-19 on children: special focus on the psychosocial aspect. Minerva Pediatrica, 72(3), 226–235. https://doi.org/10.23736/S0026-4946.20.05887-9

Jenco, M. (2020, September 09). Report: 513,415 children diagnosed with COVID-19. AAP News. Retrieved from https://www.aappublications.org/news/2020/09/09/COVID19children090820

Josipovič, D. (2018). Mobility and highly educated workers: Brain drain from Slovenia – national and regional aspects of brain circulation. In K. Toplak & M. Vah Jevšnik (Eds.), Labour mobility in the EU (pp. 137–156). Ljubljana: Založba ZRC.

Josipovič, D. (2020a, April 18). COVID-19: Kako razumeti dogajanje v Italiji in kaj se lahko naučimo. Dnevnikov Objektiv. Retrieved from https://www.dnevnik.si/1042927395

Josipovič, D. (2020b). A Comparative Demo-Geographic Perspective of COVID-19 Spread and Measures in Slovenia with a Special emphasis on Regional Disparities and Border Areas. Treatises and Documents – journal of ethnic studies, 85, 33–56. https://doi.org/10.36144/RiG85.dec20.33-56

Ju, J. T. J., Boisvert, L. N., & Zuo, Y. Y. (2021). Face masks against COVID-19: Standards, efficacy, testing and decontamination methods. Advances in Colloid and Interface Science, 292, 102435. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cis.2021.102435

National Institute for Public Health (2021). Dnevno spremljanje okužb s SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19). Retrieved from https://www.nijz.si/sl/dnevno-spremljanje-okuzb-s-sars-cov-2-covid-19

Nitschke, J. P., Forbes, P. A. G., Ali, N., Cutler, J., Apps, M. A. J., Lockwood, P. L., & Lamm, C. (2020). Resilience during uncertainty. greater social connectedness during COVID-19 lockdown is associated with reduced distress and fatigue. British Journal of Health Psychology, 26(2), 553-569. https://doi.org/10.1111/bjhp.12485

Randolph, H. E., & Barreiro, L. B. (2020). Herd Immunity: Understanding COVID-19. Immunity, 52(5), 737-741. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.immuni.2020.04.012

Robert Koch Institute (2020). Syphilis in Deutschland 2019 – Neuer Höchststand von Infektionen; SARS-CoV-2-Testzahlen in Deutschland. Epidemiologisches Bulletin 49. Retrieved from https://www.rki.de/DE/Content/Infekt/EpidBull/Archiv/2020/Ausgaben/49_20.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia (2021). SiStat Database: Population. Retrieved from https://pxweb.stat.si/SiStat/en/Podrocja/Index/100/population

Tang, Y., Liu, J., Zhang, D., Xu, Z., Ji, J., & Wen, C. (2020). Cytokine Storm in COVID-19: The Current Evidence and Treatment Strategies. Frontiers in Immunology, 11, 1708. https://doi.org/10.3389/fimmu.2020.01708

Teršek, A. (2021). Memorandum o očitni in pravno nedopustni prisili ljudi v medicinske posege in o pravno prepovedanem eksperimentiranju z ljudmi. Ustavniški blog. Retrieved from https://fotogalerija.dz-rs.si/datoteke/drugo/soj/razno/21_05_14_MEMORANDUM-MAJ-2021-Tersek_v2.pdf

Thomas, L. (2020, November 24). SARS-CoV-2 RNA best preserved in wastewater under freezing conditions. News-Medical. Retrieved from https://www.news-medical.net/news/20201124/SARS-CoV-2-RNA-best-preserved-in-wastewater-under-freezing-conditions.aspx

Wernhart, S., Förster, TH., & Weihe, E. (2020). Outpatient Management of Oligosymptomatic Patients with respiratory infection in the era of SARS-CoV-2: Experience from rural German general practitioners. BMC Infectious Diseases, 20, 811. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-020-05538-x

Wintachaia, P., & Prathomb, K. (2021). Stability analysis of SEIR model related to efficiency of vaccines for COVID-19 situation. Heliyon, 7(4), e06812. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2021.e06812