Teorijski i konceptualni okvir izučavanja starenja stanovništva
Bočna strana članka
Glavni sadržaj članka
Apstrakt
Dok je starenje stanovništva logična posledica demografskih tranzicija, jer je u srži ovog fenomena nizak fertilitet i produženo očekivano trajanje života, intrigantna je njegova paradoksalnost kada se posmatra u širem društvenom kontekstu. Sa jedne strane je to civilizacijski trijumf u kontrolisanju reproduktivnog ponašanja i dostizanju dugovečenosti, dok propratne posledice ovog fenomena na socioekonomske sisteme imaju difuzno i percipirano negativno dejstvo. Tako je teorijsko uobličavanje pristupa u izučavanju demografskog starenja izazovno i traži napuštanje rigidnih teorijskih postavki i uključivanje celog korpusa modela, koncepata i pristupa. Revidiranje teorije demografske tranzicije i integrisanje efekta momentuma i tranzicije starosti u njene okvire otkriva buduća kretanja i u fertilitetu, mortalitetu i starosnoj strukturi, što klasična teorija ne uspeva. Nivo fertiliteta je dugo bio glavni faktor starenja stanovništva, da bi tek skoro mortalitet počeo da dobija sve značajniju ulogu u ovom procesu. Pitanja kako će buduće kretanje očekivnog trajanja života izgledati dato je preko tri teorijs ka pravca: kompresije morbiditeta, dinamičke ravnoteže i ekspanzije morbiditeta. Uvažavanje neregularnih kohortnih tokova koji dovode do "starosne ondulacije" bitno je za sadašnji i budući balans populacije zbog potencijalnih institucionalnih odgovora. Značaj kohortnih tokova za starenje stanovništva posmatran kroz koncept demografskog metabolizma targetuje čvorove na kojima postoji veća demografska "gustina" što osim teoretskog, ima i praktični značaj u životnim ciklusima određene populacije. Osavremenjavanje izučavanja starenja stanovništva je poželjno i preko prospektivnog pristupa jer daje okvire starenja u kojima je ugrađena komponenta promene u očekivanom trajanju života.
Preuzimanja
Detalji članka
Centar za demografska istraživanja Instituta društvenih nauka
Reference
Bloom, D., & LeeLuca, D. (2016). The Global Demography of Aging: Facts, Explanations, Future. Boston: Program on the Global Demography of Aging at Harvard University (Working Paper Series PGDA No. 130) http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/pgda/working
Burch, T. (2003). Demography in a new key: A theory of population theory. Demographic research, 9, 263-284. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2003.9.11
Carnes, B. A., & Olshansky, J. S. (2007). A Realist View of Aging, Mortality, and Future Longevity. Population and Development Review, 33(2), 367-381. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2007.00172.x
Chesnais, J. C. (1990). Demographic Transition Patterns and Their Impact on the Age Structure. Population and Development Review, 16(2), 327-336. DOI: 10.2307/1971593
Dyson, T. (2011). The Role of the Demographic Transition in the Process of Urbanization. Population and Development Review, 37(s1), 34-54. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2011.00377.x
Fries, J. (1985). The compression of morbidity. World Health Forum, 6, 47-51.
Fries, J. F., Bruce, B., & Chakravaty, E. (2011). Compression of Morbidity 1980–2011: A Focused Review of Paradigms and Progress. Journal of Aging Research, 2011, 1-10. http://dx.doi.org/10.4061/2011/261702
Kurek, S. (2007). Population ageing research from a geographical perspective – methodological approach. Bulletin of Geography (Socio-economic Series), 8, 30-49. http://www.bulletinofgeography.umk.pl/8_2007/S_Kurek.pdf
Laslett, P. (1995). Necessary Knowledge: Age and Aging in the Societies of the Past. In D. I. Kertzer & P. Laslett (Eds.), Aging in the Past, Demography, Society, and Old Age (pp. 4-79). Berkeley: University of California Press.
Lutz, W. (2013). Demographic Metabolism: A Predictive Theory of Socioeconomic Change. Population and Development Review, 38(s1), 283–301. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00564.x
Lutz, W., & Sanderson, W. (2005). Toward a concept of population balance considering age-structure, human capital, and intergenerational equity. In S. Tuljapurkar, I. Pool & V. Prachuabmoh (Eds.), Population, Resources and Development. Riding the Age Waves, Vol I (pp. 119–137). Dordrecht: Springer.
Michel, J. P., & Robine, J. M. (2004). A “New” General Theory of Population Ageing. The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance, 29(4), 667–678. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-0440.2004.00309.x
Nusselder, W. (1998). Compression or expansion of morbidity? A life-table approach. (Doctoral dissertation). Retrieved from Erasmus University Rotterdam (ISBN: 90·9011630·3).
Oeppen, J., & Vaupel, J. (2002). Broken Limits to Life Expectancy. Science, 296(5570), 1029-1031. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1069675
Omran, A. (2005). The Epidemiologic Transition: A Theory of the Epidemiology of Population Change. The Milbank Quarterly, 83(4), 731–57. Reprinted from The Milbank Memorial Fund Quarterly, 49(4), 1971, 509–538. doi: 10.1111/j.1468-0009.2005.00398.x
Olshansky, S. J., Carnes, B. A., & Désesquelles, A. (2001). Demography. Prospects for human longevity. Science, 291(5508), 1491-1492. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.291.5508.1491
Pampel, F., & Peters, E. (1995). The Esterline Effect. Annual Review of Sociology, 21, 163-194. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.so.21.080195.001115
Pierret, C. (2006). The ‘sandwich generation’: women caring for parents and children. Monthly Labor Review. https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2006/09/art1full.pdf
Penev, G. (1997). Demografske determinante starenja stanovništva SR Jugoslavije ‒ modelski pristup. Stanovništvo, 35(3-4), 109-129.
Pool, I. (2005). Age strucutural transitions and policy: frameworks. In S. Tuljapukur, I. Pool, & V. Prachuabmoh (Eds.), Population, Resources and Development. Riding the Age Waves, Volume I (pp. 13-39). Dordrecht: Springer.
Pool, I., Prachuabmoh, V., & Tuljapurkar, S. (2005). Structural transitions, population waves and “Political arithmetick”. In S. Tuljapurkar, I. Pool & V. Prachuabmoh (Eds.), Population, Resources and Development. Riding the Age Waves, Vol I (pp. 3–10.) Dordrecht: Springer.
Pool, I., & Wong, L. (2006). Age-Structural Transitions and Policy: An Emerging Issue. In I. Pool, L. Wong & E. Vilquin (Eds.), Age-Structural Transitions: Challenges for Development (pp. 3-20). Paris: CICRED.
Радовановић, М. (1988). Становништво као аутономни биосоцијални и географски систем. Зборник радова Географског института „Јован Цвијић“, 40, 167–178.
Rindfuss, R. R. (1991). The Young Adult Years: Diversity, Structural Change, and Fertility. Demography, 28(4), 493–512. https://doi.org/10.2307/2061419
Robine, J. M. (2003). Life Course, Environmental Change, and Life Span. In Carey, J. R. & Tuljapurkar, S. (Eds.), Lifespan: evolutionary, ecological, and demographic perspectives. Population and development review. A Supplement to Volume 29 (pp. 229-238). New York: Population Council.
Robine, J. M., & Michel, J. P. (2004). Looking Forward to a General Theory on Population Aging. Journal of Gerontology: Medical sciences, 59(6), 590–597. https://doi.org/10.1093/gerona/59.6.M590
Rosset, E. (1964). Aging Process of Population. Oxford: Pergamon Press.
Rowland, D. (2012). Population Ageing. The Transformation of Societies. Dordrecht: Springer.
Ryder, N. B. (1965). The Cohort as a Concept in the Study of Social Change. American Sociological Review, 30(6), 843-861. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2090964
Safarova, G. (2011). Demography of Aging: Current State and Priority Driven Research Directions. Advances in Gerontology, 1(1), 5–15. https://doi.org/10.1134/S2079057011010127
Sanderson, W., & Scherbov, S. (2007). A new perspective on population aging. Demographic Research, 16, 27–58. https://doi.org/10.4054/DemRes.2007.16.2
Sanderson, W., & Scherbov, S. (2008). Rethinking Age and Aging. Population Bulletin, 63(4), 1–15. https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/823b/c9873993f43cb40bd8980396fa9e8a7e680b.pdf
Sanderson, W., & Scherbov, S. (2013). The Characteristics Approach to the Measurement of Population Aging. Population and development review, 39(4), 673–685. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2013.00633.x
Sanderson, W., & Scherbov, S. (2014). Measuring the Speed of Aging across Population Subgroups. PLoS ONE, 9(5), 1-4. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0096289
Sanderson, W., & Scherbov, S. (2015). Faster Increases in Human Life Expectancy Could Lead to Slower Population Aging. PLoS ONE, 10(4), 1-9. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0121922
Sanderson, W., & Scherbov, S. (2016). New Approaches to the Conceptualization and Measurement of Age and Aging. Journal of Aging and Health, 28(7), 1159-1177. https://doi.org/10.1177/0898264316656517
Siegel, J. (1980). On the Demography of Ageing. Demography, 17(4), 345-364.
Verdery, A. (2015). Links Between Demographic and Kinship Transitions. Population and Development Review, 41(3), 465-484. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2015.00068.x
Vaupel, J. (2010). Biodemography of human ageing. Nature, 464(7288), 536-542. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08984
Weeks, J. (2008). Population. An Introduction to Concepts and Issues (10th ed.). Belmont, CA: Thomson/Wadsworth.