Demografski jaz između istoka i zapada Evropske unije: Regionalni pregled
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Cilj ovog rada je da istraži razlike u demografskim pokazateljima između regiona Evropske unije u odnosu na to da li su pripadali bivšim komunističkim državama ili nisu. U radu je problem demografskog jaza između istočne i zapadne Evrope sagledan na regionalnom nivou. Osim tog pregleda, u radu se postavlja pitanje da li je važno ispitivati razlike u pojedinim demografskim pokazateljima između bivših komunističkih država i ostalih država EU na administrativnom nivou nižem od državnog? Ova transverzalna studija je sprovedena koristeći podatke 1.155 NUTS 3 regiona Evropske unije iz 2014. godine. NUTS 3 regioni su podeljeni u dve grupe u zavisnosti od toga da li su pripadali Istočnom bloku ili ne. Ispitan je 21 demografski pokazatelj među kojima su pokazatelji mortaliteta, fertiliteta i starosne strukture. Dodatno, očigledne razlike u ekonomskoj razvijenosti regiona kontrolisane su pomoću bruto domaćeg proizvoda po stanovniku (BDP/c). Na bazi BDP/c, regioni su podeljeni u tri grupe: nizak, srednji, visok. Prema toj podeli, testirana je razlika između dve grupe regiona za svaki pokazatelj. Tako je ispitana regionalna varijacija na nivou cele EU. Dodatno, ispitana je i varijacija unutar pojedinačnih država za svaki pokazatelj. Rezultati pokazuju da je kod mortaliteta najveći jaz između dve grupe regiona. Mortalitetni uslovi su mnogo lošiji na istoku EU. Ova razlika postoji bez obzira na BDP/c, tj. ekonomski najrazvijeniji regioni bivših komunističkih zemalja imaju u proseku viši mortalitet od ostalih regiona sličnog BDP/c. Iako je fertilitet u proseku niži kod bivših regiona komunističkih zemalja, velika razlika je detektovana samo kada je starosni model fertiliteta u pitanju. Prosečna starost majki pri rođenju je značajno veća u ostalim regionima i to bez obzira na BDP/c. Kada je u pitanju starosna struktura, bivši komunistički regioni su u proseku nešto mlađi, ne kao rezultat viših stopa fertiliteta, već viših stopa mortaliteta. Kada je u pitanju regionalna varijacija unutar zemalja EU, mortalitet i starost majki pri rađanju variraju više kod bivših komunističkih država, dok su varijacije u odnosu starih i mladih veće kod država koje nisu pripadale Istočnom bloku. Analiza regionalne varijacije je pokazala da je regionalni pristup veoma relevantan kada se ispituju demografske razlike između „Istoka“ i „Zapada“ u EU. Regionalni pristup je naročito opravdan kada je u pitanju analiza starosnog modela rađanja.
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Centar za demografska istraživanja Instituta društvenih nauka
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