Assessing Natural Hazard Exposure and Demographic Vulnerability in Serbian LSGUs Using FAHP and FMULTIMOORA
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Natural hazards increasingly represent a significant challenge to sustainable development, disaster risk reduction, and population wellbeing, particularly in regions affected by adverse demographic trends. This study examines the interaction between natural hazard exposure and demographic vulnerability across 25 Serbian local self-government units (LSGUs) through the integration of Geographic Information Systems (GIS), the Triangular Fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (FAHP), and the Fuzzy MULTIMOORA method. Fifteen indicators were organized into three groups representing natural hazard exposure, hazard exposure within built-up areas, and demographic vulnerability. The hazard-related indicators included flood-prone areas, landslide and rockfall susceptibility, seismic hazard, hail-prone areas, and areas exposed to erosion and torrential floods. The demographic indicators included the shares of people with disabilities, population aged 65 years and over, population without educational attainment, economically inactive population, and elderly single-person households. Criterion weights were determined using Triangular FAHP, while Fuzzy MULTIMOORA was applied to rank LSGUs according to their integrated vulnerability. Additional group-specific Fuzzy MULTIMOORA analyses were conducted separately for each indicator group to identify the principal drivers of vulnerability. The integrated assessment identified Ljubovija, Vladičin Han, and Krupanj as the most vulnerable LSGUs, whereas Lebane, Gadžin Han, and Vladimirci occupied the lowest positions. The group-specific analyses further revealed that municipalities characterized by the highest demographic vulnerability were not necessarily those with the highest integrated vulnerability, emphasizing the importance of interactions among environmental and demographic dimensions of vulnerability. The study contributes to the understanding of local vulnerability patterns by integrating demographic and environmental perspectives within a unified decision-making framework. The proposed approach may support evidence-based disaster risk reduction policies, population protection measures, spatial planning, and local resilience-building initiatives in Serbia and other regions facing similar demographic and environmental challenges.
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Centar za demografska istraživanja Instituta društvenih nauka
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