Ageing of the Electorate in Quebec

Abstract

Population ageing has many consequences on society; one of them is the ageing of the electorate. The purpose of this article is to describe the past and future evolution of the electorate in Quebec as well as some of its consequences. Still today one of the youngest provinces in Canada, Quebec will be ageing rapidly from 2011 because of the arrival of the baby-boomers at age 65. According to the most recent projections of the Bureau de la Statistique du Quebec, 25 to 30% of the population will be aged 65 or over in 2041, so at least one person out of four. The electorate will aged accordingly: from 16% today, the elderly will represent between 30 and 35% of the population aged 18 or over in 2041. In 1951, there was 21 persons aged 65 or over for 100 aged 18 to 34. In I 996, this ratio was more than the double. In 2041, it could be 123 or even 168 depending on the scenario. The ageing of the electorate will have many consequences, in particular on States policies. The election on a majority basis in use in Quebec incites the political parties to design their platform in accordance with the interest of the median voter. Therefore, we can expect a reorientation of the social choices in favour of the elderly in the near future. Better educated, in better health and wealthiest, future senior citizens will probably be able to get better organised to defend their interest on the political scene. The linkage between individual and collective ageing bring certain observers to think that their ageing of the electorate will lead to a conservative society dominated by the absence of innovation, an attitude typically associated to the elderly. We know that the individuals tend to behave consistently, to keep their political opinions as they get older. This second hypothesis suggests that population ageing might encourage the pressure in favour of the independence of Quebec and not refrain it. In 2031, the vote of the baby-boomers, older but faithful to their convictions, combined with the one of the younger generations, favourably disposed to sovereignty, could lead to a "yes" in a referendum. The instability that characterizes political behaviour as well as eventual period effects limit the significance of our analysis.