Trends in the youth transitions to the labour market in Serbia
Main Article Content
Abstract
In recent decades, the transformation from industrial to post-industrial societies has inevitably influenced the patterns of transition for young individuals entering the labor market. These transition patterns reflect continuity and changes in the social division of labor, thus representing a crucial process in shaping the social stratification of modern societies. The focus of this study is the analysis of changes in the average age of entry into the labor market in Serbia from the second half of the twentieth century to the present. The aim is to shed light on three questions: 1) how the average age of entry into the workforce has changed during this period, 2) what differences in the transition patterns have been observed between men and women, and 3) what differences in transition patterns have been observed between urban and rural populations. The emphasis is on recognizing basic trends in the transition to the labor market for the cohorts born from 1930 to 1995.
Considering the rapid changes that Serbian society has undergone during this period, we will attempt to determine their impact on the basic patterns of integration into the labor market. Ideally, we would like to be able to map all the aspects of the professional transition of specific cohorts through the changing institutional structure. However, since this is not feasible, this paper specifically focuses on the following aspects of the transition process: (a) timing of events, i.e., the average age of entry into the labor market, and (b) variability in age, i.e., the level at which transitions occur at specific ages.
The analysis is based on the data from the European Social Survey in 2018, with its sample of 1265 respondents in Serbia. Survival analysis is applied to illustrate changes over time in the studied life event, along with Kaplan-Meier survival function estimates for comparisons across gender/locality. When considering the aspects of timing of events and variability in age, the results indicate a delay in professional transitions during the study period, but not necessarily their destandardization. Additionally, life trajectories of men and women had become increasingly similar by the collapse of socialism and the rise of social inequalities, when this trend was halted. On the other hand, transition patterns between individuals from rural and urban areas are becoming more similar. Taking into account the intense societal changes during the analyzed period, the transformations observed in professional transitions may be a consequence of these specific social changes.
Downloads
Article Details
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
Published by the Institute of Social Sciences - Center for Demographic Research
References
Alheit, P. (2018). The Concept of “Biographicity” as Background Theory of Lifelong Learning? Dyskursy Młodych Andragogów, 19, 9-22.
Allison, P. (2019). Event History and Survival Analysis. In G. R. Hancock, L. M. Stapleton & R. O. Mueller (Eds), The reviewer's guide to quantitative methods in the social sciences (Second) (pp. 86-98). Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315755649 DOI: https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315755649-7
Badolato, L. (2023). Stratified pathways to Italy’s “latest-late” transition to adulthood. Advances in Life Course Research, 57, 100563. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.alcr.2023.100563 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.alcr.2023.100563
Beck, U. (1992). Risk Society: Towards a New Modernity. London, New Delhi: Sage Publications.
Becker, H. A., & P. L. J. Hermkens (1993). Generations between market and solidarity. In H. A. Becker & P. L. J. Hermkens (Eds.), Solidarity of Generations. Demographic, Economic and Social Change, and its Consequences, 1 (pp. 175–196). Amsterdam: Thesis.
Benería, L., & Sen, G. (1981). Accumulation, Reproduction, and “Women’s Role in Economic Development”: Boserup Revisited. Signs, 7(2), 279–298. https://doi.org/10.1086/493882 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1086/493882
Billari, F. C. (2001). The analysis of early life courses: Complex descriptions of the transition to adulthood. Journal of Population Research, 18, 119–142. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03031885 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF03031885
Billari, F. C., & Liefbroer, A. C. (2010). Towards a new pattern of transition to adulthood? Advances in Life Course Research, 15(2-3), 59–75. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.alcr.2010.10.003 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.alcr.2010.10.003
Blagojević, M. (2002). Žene i muškarci u Srbiji 1990–2000 - urodnjavanje cene haosa. In S. Bolčić & A. Milić (Eds), Srbija krajem milenijuma, razaranje društva, promene i svakodnevni život (pp. 283–314). Beograd: ISIFF.
Bobić, M. (2003). Brak ili/i partnerstvo. Beograd: Institut za sociološka istraživanja Filozofskog fakulteta.
Bohle, D., & Greskovits, B. (2012). Capitalist Diversity on Europe's Periphery. Cornell University Press.
Brückner, H., & Mayer, K. U. (2005). De-Standardization of the Life Course: What it Might Mean? And if it Means Anything, Whether it Actually Took Place? Advances in Life Course Research, 9, 27–53. https://doi.org/10.1016/s1040-2608(04)09002-1 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S1040-2608(04)09002-1
Buchmann, M. (1989). The script of life in modern society: Entry into adulthood in a changing world. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.
Cheah, C. S. L., Trinder, K. M., & Gokavi, T. N. (2010). Urban/rural and gender differences among Canadian emerging adults. International Journal of Behavioral Development, 34(4), 339–344. https://doi.org/10.1177/0165025409339152 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0165025409339152
Cvejić, S. (2006). Korak u mestu – društvena pokretljivost u Srbiji u procesu postsocijalističke transformacije. Beograd: ISI FF.
Elder, G. H. (1975). Age Differentiation and the Life Course. Annual Review of Sociology, 1(1), 165–190. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.so.01.080175.001121 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.so.01.080175.001121
Elder, G. H. (2002). The Life Course and Aging: Some Accomplishments, Unfinished Tasks, and New Directions, Annual meeting of the Gerontological Society of America, Boston, November 11, 2002.
Elder, G. H., & Shanahan, M. J. (2007). The Life Course and Human Development. Handbook of Child Psychology. Wiley. https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470147658.chpsy0112 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/9780470147658.chpsy0112
Esping-Andersen, G. (1990). The Three Worlds of Welfare Capitalism. Cambridge: Polity Press. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/095892879100100108
ESS Round 9: European Social Survey Round 9 Data (2018). Data file edition 2.0. NSD - Norwegian Centre for Research Data, Norway – Data Archive and distributor of ESS data for ESS ERIC. https://doi.org/10.21338/NSD-ESS9-2018
Fenton, M. P., Forthun, L. F., Aristild, S., & Vasquez, K. B. (2021). The Role of the Rural Context in the Transition to Adulthood: A Scoping Review. Adolescent Research Review, 7(1), 101–126. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40894-021-00161-6 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40894-021-00161-6
Giddens, A. (1984). The Constitution of Society. Outline of the Theory of Structuration. Berkeley: University of California Press.
Giddens, A. (1990). The Consequences of Modernity. Stanford: Stanford University Press.
Giele, J. Z., & Holst, E. (2003). New life patterns and changing gender roles. Advances in Life Course Research, 8, 3–22. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1040-2608(03)08001-8 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S1040-2608(03)08001-8
Ignjatovic, S. (2009). Recent problems in research on transition to adulthood: Country focus Serbia. Stanovnistvo, 47(1), 7–22. https://doi.org/10.2298/STNV0901007I DOI: https://doi.org/10.2298/STNV0901007I
Inglehart, R. (1977). The Silent Revolution: Changing values and political styles among Western publics. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
Kleinbaum, D. G. (1996). Survival Analysis. Springer New York. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-2555-1 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4757-2555-1
Kogan, I., Gebel, M., & Noelke, C. (2008). Europe Enlarged: A Handbook of Education, Labour and Welfare Regimes in Central and Eastern Europe. Bristol: Policy Press. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1332/policypress/9781847420640.001.0001
Kohli, M. (2007). The institutionalization of the life course: looking back to look ahead. Research in Human Development, 4(3–4), 253–271. https://doi.org/10.1080/15427600701663122 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/15427600701663122
Lazić, M. (2011). Čekajući kapitalizam. Beograd: Službeni glasnik.
Lesthaeghe, R. (2010). The Unfolding Story of the Second Demographic Transition. Population and Development Review, 36(2), 211–251. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2010.00328.x DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1728-4457.2010.00328.x
Macmillan, R. (2005a). The Structure of the Life Course: Classic Issues and Current Controversies. Advances in Life Course Research, 9, 3–24. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/S1040-2608(04)09001-X DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/S1040-2608(04)09001-X
Macmillan, R. (2005b). The structure of the life course: Standardized? Individualized? Differentiated?. Amsterdam: JAI Press.
Mandel, H., & Shalev, M. (2009). Gender, Class, and Varieties of Capitalism. Social Politics: International Studies in Gender, State and Society, 16, 161 - 181. https://doi.org/10.1093/sp/jxp006 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/sp/jxp006
Mentus, V. (2022). Aging well? Social spending, age, and subjective wellbeing across Europe. Stanovništvo, 60(2), 75–88. https://doi.org/10.2298/STNV2202075M DOI: https://doi.org/10.2298/STNV2202075M
Mitrovic, K. (2022). Anthropological research on coming of age and “extended youth”: Youth “well-spent” in Serbia. Stanovnistvo, 60(2), 89–106. https://doi.org/10.2298/STNV2202089M DOI: https://doi.org/10.2298/STNV2202089M
Mojić, D. (2016). Obrazovno-radni resursi i orijentacije mladih u Srbiji u periodu odblokirane postsocijalističke transformacije. Sociologija, 58(1): 245–258. https://doi.org/10.2298/SOC16S1245M DOI: https://doi.org/10.2298/SOC16S1245M
Müller, W., & Gangl, M. (2003). Transitions from Education to Work in Europe. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/0199252475.001.0001 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/0199252475.001.0001
Petrović, M. (2011). Promene bračnosti i porodičnih modela u postsocijalističkim zemljama – zakasnela i nepotpuna ili specifična druga demografska tranzicija? Stanovništvo, 49(1), 53–78. https://doi.org/10.2298/STNV1101053P DOI: https://doi.org/10.2298/STNV1101053P
Riley, M. W., & Riley, J. W. (2000). Age Integration. The Gerontologist, 40(3), 266–270. https://doi.org/10.1093/geront/40.3.266 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/geront/40.3.266
Riley, M. W., Kahn, R., & Foner, A. (1994). Age and structural lag: Society’s failure to providemeaningful opportunities in work, family, and leisure. New York: Wiley.
Salas-Velasco, M. (2007). The transition from higher education to employment in Europe:the analysis of the time to obtain the first job. Higher Education, 54(3), 333–360. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10734-006-9000-1 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10734-006-9000-1
Shanahan, M. J. (2000). Pathways to Adulthood in Changing Societies: Variability and Mechanisms in Life Course Perspective. Annual Review of Sociology, 26(1), 667–692. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.soc.26.1.667 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.soc.26.1.667
Standing, G. (2011). The Precariat: The New Dangerous Class. Bloomsbury Academic. https://doi.org/10.5040/9781849664554 DOI: https://doi.org/10.5040/9781849664554
Stanojević, D., & Tomašević, A. (2021). Stambene i porodične putanje mladih odraslih u pet zemalja: Švedskoj, Nemačkoj, Velikoj Britaniji, Italiji i Srbiji – analiza sekvenci podataka Evropskog društvenog istraživanja. Sociologija, 63(2), 262-288. https://doi.org/10.2298/SOC2102262S DOI: https://doi.org/10.2298/SOC2102262S
Tomanović, S. (2012). Promene u tranziciji u odraslost mladih u Srbiji između 2003. i 2011. godine. Sociologija, 54(2), 227-243. https://doi.org/10.2298/SOC1202227T DOI: https://doi.org/10.2298/SOC1202227T
Tomanović, S., & Stanojević, D. (2015). Mladi u Srbiji 2015. Stanja, opažanja, verovanja i nadanja. Beograd: FES i SeCons.
Tomanović, S. Ljubičić, M., & Stanojević, D. (2016). Postajanje roditeljem u Srbiji: Sociološko istraživanje tranzicije u roditeljstvo. Beograd: Institut za sociološka istraživanja Filozofskog fakulteta Univerziteta u Beogradu, Čigoja.
Tomanović, S. (2019). What we talk about when we talk about family?: Concept in context. Sociologija, 61(3), 301-322. https://doi.org/10.2298/SOC1903301T DOI: https://doi.org/10.2298/SOC1903301T
Tomanović, S. (2022). Bringing social biography to life course studies: Agency and reflexivity in education-to-work transitions in young adults’ biographies. Stanovništvo, 60(2), 9–28. https://doi.org/10.2298/STNV2202009T DOI: https://doi.org/10.2298/STNV2202009T
Walther, A., & Plug, W. (2006). Transitions from school to work in Europe: Destandardization and policy trends. New Directions for Child and Adolescent Development, 113, 77–90. https://doi.org/10.1002/cd.170 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/cd.170
Winkler-Dworak, M., & Toulemon, L. (2007). Gender Differences in the Transition to Adulthood in France: Is There Convergence Over the Recent Period? European Journal of Population/Revue Européenne de Démographie, 23(3–4), 273–314. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-007-9128-4 DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10680-007-9128-4
Young, M. C. (2010). Gender Differences in Precarious Work Settings. Relations Industrielles / Industrial Relations, 65(1), 74–97. https://doi.org/10.7202/039528ar DOI: https://doi.org/10.7202/039528ar