An Estimate of the Basic Parameters of the Population in the Brankovića Region for 1455

Abstract

The estimates reported in this paper are part of a broader research on demographic environment and population undertaken within the project "Settlements and Population in the Brankovića Region in 1455" organized by the Board for Scientific Study of the Population of the Serbian Academy of Science and Arts.

The estimates of demographic parameters were based on the results of the fiscal census taken in 1455 by Turkish authorities following invasion of the Brankovića region which, in terms of geography, is part of the today's Kosovo. This census was kind of a feudal census in which obligations of the population towards local feudal authorities were registered both in terms of money and in kind. Pursuant to the regulations spelled out by Turkish authorities, the farmers, and other villagers as well as the inhabitants of mixed settlements were enumerated. However, neither the cattle breeders nor urban population or those in the military and feudal service, were registered.

The census was taken in 645 villages of which 42 were deserted, 1 mixed settlement, 15 churches and monasteries, two of which were deserted, and in 31 mezras. The record listed the names of males and female widowed tax payers acting as heads of "houses" or parts of "houses" in case of multiple generation families, as well as the names of monks and bachelors (who, by Turkish rules, were also liable to tax payment). The name of a male "house" head (but not that of any other tax payers category), was followed by additional data, primarily regarding family origin (father's name) or kinship to the registered tax payer, and much more rarely regarding occupation, nationality, migration and social status.

These estimates were either directly based on Turkish sources or not based on the census results at all. In case of the former, the total number of inhabitants as well as the composition of male "house" heads by occupation, nationality, migration and social status were estimated. In the latter case, the age-gender structure, as well as the population natality and mortality were assessed.

To estimate total population, an index for the average size of a "house" was calculated based on the census definition and bearing in mind long periods of distress during the time of war. This index was estimated to 4.40 for the "house" headed by a male. The index for the average size of the "house" with a widowed female as head was estimated to 2.50. This estimate is based on the assumption that these widows were most often relatively young and that they had kept their status only until their eldest sons married. The index for bachelors and monks was 1.

Based on such indices and the census data on the number of tax payers, total population of the Region was estimated to 67480 (Table 2).

The age-specific estimates of the population size were made within large groups. Two hypotheses were presented. In the first, the share of children below 14 years of age is estimated at 42% based on the family composition assuming an index on the average size of the "house", and in the second, the share of population aged 65 and over is estimated at 3% based on the usual proportion of the old in populations with high natality and mortality.

The estimate of the composition of population by gender was based on the hypothesis on the number of males per 100 females. In the 0-14 age group, this index was estimated at 100 and at 90 in the 15-64 age group while in the age group of 65 and over, this index was estimated at 70. This hypothesis is based on the impact of the state of distress in the course of the 60 years observed. The age-specific estimate of the population is shown in Table 3.

Natality was estimated on the basis of the following hypothesis: the share of women aged 15-49 in total was 49%, the share of fertile women of reproductive age 64%, the share of fertile women not participating in procreation during the year observed 15-25% while the probability that women active in the process of procreation would conceive was 0.36%. These hypotheses were based on the general demographic knowledge and the awareness of the conditions prevailing in the Region at that time. The results are presented in three versions (cable 4). The rates 43.7 and 46.6 were assessed as more realistic than the 49.5 per thousand.

Lacking original data, the estimate on the general mortality relies on the available data concerning populations in the Middle Ages, particularly as regards the mean length of life. Four versions were constructed (Table 5), and the general mortality rate in the Region is estimated to had varied from 37.0 to 43.5 per thousand. The higher value estimates are assessed as more probable.

The social and economic structures were assessed on the basis of partial census data. It is characteristic that the answers to questions on structural features were registered only if such features stood out from the typical situation of the majority population. Besides, the answers contained reference to only one structural feature. Based on the results it may be concluded that the economic structure was dominated by farmers; that migrations usually took place within the Region; that the social feature referred to was most often the poor and the old; in terms of nationality, that the Serbs were dominant while the number of registered Albanians, Bulgarians, Greeks and Croats was insignificant.

The estimates show that the demographic situation in the Region in 1455 was similar to that of other populations of that time. This is confirmed by a high level of natural components, young age composition and the homogeneity of economic and social population structures. On the other hand, the estimates clearly reveal disruptions in demographic development of the Region as illustrated by excess female population and a large number of deserted or dwarf settlements. Thus, it can reasonably be assumed that the size of the population declined in periods of distress to which the Region was exposed.