Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Predrag Petrović
Author-Workplace-Name: Center for Economic Research, Institute of Social Sciences, Belgrade (Serbia)
Author-Name: Goran Nikolić
Author-Workplace-Name: Institute of European Studies, Belgrade (Serbia)
Author-Name: Ivana Ostojić
Author-Workplace-Name: Center for Economic Research, Institute of Social Sciences, Belgrade (Serbia)
Title: Demographic Determinants of Energy Consumption in the European Union: Econometric Analysis Results
Publication-Status: Published
Abstract: Over the past several decades there has been a strong intensifying trend of human society impact on ecosystems, consumption of natural resources and global change. The environmental impact of the society is fully apparent and dominantly implemented through various greenhouse gases emissions (GHG), leading towards global climate change with considerably spread harmful effects. Global climate change includes the earth and ocean surface and atmospheric warming, but also melting of snow and ice, increase of sea levels and ocean acidity, as well as ever more common natural phenomena extremes (winds, various forms of rainfall/precipitation, extremely low or high temperatures, etc.).
 Scientists are well-familiarized with the fact that use of fossil fuels, such as oil derivatives and coal, is the main generator of harmful gases. In addition, possible substitutions for fossil fuels in the form of other energy sources are very limited, and it should be remembered that other energy sources also have certain adverse environmental effects. Bearing in mind climate change caused by products of fossil fuels combustion, as well as inevitable depletion of natural crude oil resources, management of growing global energy demand becomes one of the key goals and challenges of 21st century. If these reasons are coupled with obligations emanating from Kyoto Protocol, it is clear that attention of researches should be more than reasonably focused on the main determinants of energy consumption. 
 This study is focused on illumination of key demographic and economic determinants of energy consumption in 28 EU member states in the period 1960-2014. The results obtained demonstrate that population positively and quite strongly influence total energy consumption. An increase of population of 1% will result in an increase of energy consumption of 1.59% to 1.76%. Such relation most probably can be explained by the fact that demographic growth of the society aggravates and complicates planning processes of efficient energy consumption, diminishing the ability of society to be energy efficient.  
 The population effect of persons aged 65 and above to energy consumption is also positive. An increase in share of this age group of 1% will result in an increase in energy consumption of approximately 0.43%. Positive elasticity coefficient should be understood as a proof that European societies with higher share of senior citizens consume more energy that societies with higher share of younger population, not necessarily as an argument that senior citizens use more energy than younger population. The explanation for such nature of a cause-and-effect relation could be that high share of senior citizens influences the structure of production and consumption, spatial distribution of population, transport infrastructure and social services provided.
 A significant influence on energy consumption in the EU is made by the level of economic development of countries, which is in accordance with the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC), suggesting a relation of inverted letter “U”. The amount of income per capita needed to have the EKC expressed ranges between 54,183 and 81,552 dollars.
Keywords: energy consumption; population size; share of senior citizens; GDP per capita; elasticity
Journal: Stanovnistvo
Pages: 1-20
Volume: 55
Issue: 1
Year: 2017
Month: December
DOI: 10.2298/STNV170606003P
File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/54
File-Function: Abstract page
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File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/54/52
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Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:55:y:2017:i:1:id:54

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Marko Galjak
Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Geography, University of Belgrade, Belgrade (Serbia)
Title: Gordana Vojković, Vera Gligorijević: “Policy scenario: Demographic and migration trends of the future (case study Šumadija and Pomoravlje)”
Publication-Status: Published
Abstract: No abstract.
Journal: Stanovnistvo
Pages: 107-109
Volume: 55
Issue: 1
Year: 2017
Month: December
DOI: 10.59954/stnv.103
File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/103
File-Function: Abstract page
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File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/103/94
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Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:55:y:2017:i:1:id:103

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Zoran Ponjavić
Author-Workplace-Name: Department for Civil Rights, Faculty of Law, University of Kragujevac (Serbia)
Author-Name: Dušica Palačković
Author-Workplace-Name: Department for Civil Rights, Faculty of Law, University of Kragujevac (Serbia)
Title: Right to Anonymous Childbirth
Publication-Status: Published
Abstract: In this paper, the authors present the institute of anonymous childbirth which is not regulated by the Republic of Serbia positive laws, but it is in a small number of other European countries. Contrary to the usual review of this issue, through the prism of the child’s right to know its origin, which has become the usual way of reviewing any question from the domain of paedo-centric family law, the authors hereby attempt to shed the light from another angle – the right of woman (mother) to a private life and the right of a child to be born in medically accepted conditions, which is the interest of the society as a whole. The authors also point out to the possibility of positive demographic effects of introducing this institute which have been the case in the countries which regulate this matter.
 The arguments in favor of introducing this institute can be found both in comparative law and in the practice of European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg whose rulings reshape the legislation of European countries, thus actually becoming the sources of law. There is an example from French legislation, which, according to the Court’s opinion, established a fair balance between conflicted rights and interests, which was the key point for reaching the famous decision in the case Odièvre v. France. This decision set a precedent for the following rulings in similar cases, which proved that this decision was not incidental, but represented a long-term orientation of this Court in solving similar cases.
 In concluding remarks, the authors emphasize that introduction of this institute into Serbian legislation would not mean complete exclusion of the child’s right to know the facts related to his origin, which today is the key argument against its introduction. In any case, this regulation would represent a more advanced solution from the point of view of child’s protection if compared to some that already exist in Republic of Serbia positive law, which completely prevent a child to learn the facts of his origin.
Keywords: anonymous childbirth; the rights of children; the rights of mother; European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg; Serbia
Journal: Stanovnistvo
Pages: 21-40
Volume: 55
Issue: 1
Year: 2017
Month: December
DOI: 10.2298/STNV170703002P
File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/59
File-Function: Abstract page
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File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/59/53
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Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:55:y:2017:i:1:id:59

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Sanja Klempić Bogadi
Author-Workplace-Name: Department for Migration and Demographic Research, Institute for Migration and Ethnic Studies, Zagreb (Croatia)
Title: International scientific conference: “Demographic research - data, methods and processes”
Publication-Status: Published
Abstract: No abstract.
Journal: Stanovnistvo
Pages: 109-112
Volume: 55
Issue: 1
Year: 2017
Month: December
DOI: 10.59954/stnv.104
File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/104
File-Function: Abstract page
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File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/104/95
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Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:55:y:2017:i:1:id:104

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Katarina Stanić
Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Economics, Finance and Administration (FEFA), Belgrade (Serbia)
Author-Name: Gordana Matković
Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Economics, Finance and Administration (FEFA), Belgrade (Serbia)
Title: Understanding the Increase in the Number of Childbirth-related Leave Beneficiaries in Serbia
Publication-Status: Published
Abstract: Over the past number of years, the public expenditures for childbirth-related leave benefits have more than doubled – in 2015 amounted to 0.7% GDP in relation to 0.3% GDP in 2002. This increase can mainly be attributed to the increased number of beneficiaries that grew consistently from 24 thousand in 2002 up to 40 thousand in 2015, despite the fact that the annual number of live births has been almost continually decreasing and the registered employment has dropped by almost 20 per cent in the observed period.
 One of the clear reasons explaining part of this increase is the extension of 3+ order of birth leaves in 2006, from one to two years, which can explain the increase of around 3.5 thousand of beneficiaries. Another reason is high number of beneficiaries using special child-care leave meant for parents with children with disabilities, but which, in reality, is very often used simply as the extension of parental leave. The average number of special child-care leave beneficiaries in the second half of 2015 amounted to 2.8 thousand. When these two effects are taken into account, we still notice significant increase of beneficiaries of around 10 thousand in the observed period. Fictitious employment during the pregnancy can explain this increase to some extent. Available data unambiguously show that a number of women formally employing during the second and third trimester of pregnancy has increased from 800 in 2002 to almost 3.5 thousand monthly average in the second half of 2015.
 There are two flaws of the childbirth-related leave programme in Serbia, which together lead to the constant increase of the number of beneficiaries. First is the lack of flexibility of the programme, both in terms of eligibility for acquiring the right as well as in terms of flexibility in use. Maternity/parental leave benefit may acquire only those in „standard employment” i.e. employed under employment contract (and entrepreneurs) while other type of contracts is not eligible. Second problem is the loophole in the benefit calculation method and the inadequate special child-care acquiring procedure which brings about the inclusion error. This results in the increase of generosity of the program, in a selective way, which in turn jeopardizes the financial sustainability of the programme as a whole.
 The reform of the childbirth-related leave program should progress in two directions. First is the change of the benefit calculation method extending the calculation base period so that it disables misuse and inclusion error; enabling the right to those with flexible/non-standard employment; and tightening the eligibility criteria for special-care leave. Second array of reform should tackle the flexibility in use, allowing options such as taking a leave on part-time basis or taking longer periods of leave with lower benefits.
Keywords: childbirth-related leave; special child-care leave; maternity/parental beneficiaries; public expenditures on maternity/parental leave; lack of flexibility of childbirth-related leave system
Journal: Stanovnistvo
Pages: 41-62
Volume: 55
Issue: 1
Year: 2017
Month: December
DOI: 10.2298/STNV171009005S
File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/60
File-Function: Abstract page
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File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/60/54
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Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:55:y:2017:i:1:id:60

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Biljana Jovanović Gavrilović
Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade, Belgrade (Serbia)
Author-Name: Biljana Radivojević
Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Economics, University of Belgrade, Belgrade (Serbia)
Title: Education of Population for the Future and the Future of Education
Publication-Status: Published
Abstract: The key to the future of any country in the modern world lies in the knowledge, skills and talent of its population. This gives a special importance to education through which human capital is created as an important component of national wealth. Different methods of measuring human capital are found in literature. There is a well-known division into monetary and non-monetary methods, with the latter being specifically addressed in the article.
 Education plays an important role in achieving sustainable development. Through education, knowledge about sustainable development is acquired while human resources that are capable and willing to achieve this development are created. Education, just like sustainable development, has a long-time perspective. In both cases, the interests of the future are respected when making decisions in the present. The impact of education on sustainable development is manifested through all three of its dimensions – economic, social and environmental.
 The key role of education for achieving sustainable development has been globally recognized and embedded in relevant United Nations documents, including a new global development agenda by 2030, focusing on the Sustainable Development Goals, of which Objective 4 explicitly refers to education. The European Union also pays considerable attention to education for the future in the context of the commitment of its members to achieve sustainable development. Serbia, at least declaratively, follows it, given the orientation of the country to join this regional integration.
 The future of education is under the strong influence of global mega trends, especially the Fourth Industrial Revolution, which strongly influences the world of work and the necessary knowledge and skills. During the earlier industrial revolutions, it took several decades to build appropriate education and training systems, but there is no time for that now. Changes must be anticipated, and reactions should be quick.
 The quality of educational systems of countries around the world and their preparedness for the challenges of the new age can be evaluated on the basis of the results of the Program for International Student Assessment – PISA, the most important research in the field of education, which, under the auspices of the OECD, tests the knowledge and skills of fifteen-year-olds, and relying on the composite indicator introduced by the World Economic Forum – Global Human Capital Index (GHCI). The results for Serbia are generally discouraging, but in some segments, they point to the country’s hidden potentials that should be activated.
 Education represents the development opportunity of Serbia at the threshold of the Fourth Industrial Revolution. As a small and economically underdeveloped country, Serbia should not remain at the margin of events, in the role of a passive observer. On the contrary, through adapting its education system to the demands of time by adequate financial and institutional support, thus improving human capital of the people, Serbia can find its place in a changing labor market and create preconditions for dynamic and sustainable economic development.
Keywords: education; human capital; sustainable development; Fourth Industrial Revolution; labor market
Journal: Stanovnistvo
Pages: 63-85
Volume: 55
Issue: 1
Year: 2017
Month: December
DOI: 10.2298/STNV171106006J
File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/63
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File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/63/55
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Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:55:y:2017:i:1:id:63

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Ivan Marinković
Author-Workplace-Name: Demographic Research Centre, Institute of Social Sciences, Belgrade (Serbia)
Title: Smoking as the Main Factor of Preventable Mortality in Serbia
Publication-Status: Published
Abstract: The use of tobacco in Serbia has for many years been one of the most frequent risk factors affecting disease development. Although its impact is often neglected and the effects on health minimised, reviewing the existing literature and calculating the tobacco consumption impact on the mortality of the population in Serbia (using the Peto-Lopez method) show a clear link between smoking and health of the population. Serbian population is heavily burdened with the negative effects of tobacco on health, especially men. At the beginning of the second decade of the 21st century, mortality from the illness or cause of death associated with smoking was at about 17% of the total mortality. In men, it is estimated that even a quarter of the total mortality is associated with smoking. In the female population, the share of smokers is considerably lower, and consequently the mortality from this factor is lower, about 9% of the total mortality. Of all major disease groups, tumours are most affected by smoking. The share of tobacco-related mortality in neoplasms is high and accounts for 30% (43% in men and 14% in women). In cardiovascular diseases, the impact of smoking is much smaller and about 6,000 deaths per year are associated with the use of tobacco. Since the early 1990s, the number of smoking-attributable death has been growing. Relatively, the share of men has not changed, but for 20 years of analysis the share of women has significantly increased from 5% to 9%. In all age groups, the share of smoking-related mortality has increased in the female population, especially in the 45-69 age range where mortality has been doubled. Surveys on the health of the Serbian population also confirm the trend of increasing the share of women smokers in the population, especially in the categories of young people. Men in Serbia (35-69 years of age) have the highest smoking-attributable death rate in Europe. As much as 44% of total deaths in that age are directly related to smoking. Besides Hungary, where mortality in men is also relatively high (42%), other countries have significantly lower shares. Observed at the level of the entire continent, countries of the Balkan Peninsula (and their neighbours) have the highest shares of smoking-attributable death. Women in Serbia have a moderately high share of 9% and are among the ten most vulnerable countries in Europe. The biggest difference in smoking-related mortality by gender is observed in the Pyrenees Peninsula and in the eastern and south-eastern parts of Europe. These are also the countries with the largest absolute difference in the mortality rate of men and women, thus confirming the hypothesis that tobacco smoke, as a single mortality factor, plays the most important role in establishing a different gender mortality pattern. A high percentage of smokers in the total population limits the growth of life expectancy and affects the difference in gender mortality rate. If a certain mortality factor potentially affects the life expectancy of up to three years for men in Serbia, as shown in the paper, then it is especially important to pay attention to measures of prevention and awareness of the population regarding this issue. Moreover, it is particularly important to recognise the consequences of passive smoking the youth and children are exposed to, since in Serbia there is a great deal of tolerance for smoking indoors.
Keywords: mortality; smoking; Peto-Lopez method; Serbia; life expectancy
Journal: Stanovnistvo
Pages: 87-106
Volume: 55
Issue: 1
Year: 2017
Month: December
DOI: 10.2298/STNV170610001M
File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/64
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File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/64/56
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Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:55:y:2017:i:1:id:64