Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ivan Čipin Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Demography, Faculty of Economics & Business, University of Zagreb, Zagreb (Croatia) Author-Name: Petra Međimurec Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Demography, Faculty of Economics & Business, University of Zagreb, Zagreb (Croatia) Author-Name: Silvija Vlah Jerić Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Demography, Faculty of Economics & Business, University of Zagreb, Zagreb (Croatia) Title: Fertility and the Changing Female Educational Attainment in Croatia Publication-Status: Published Abstract: This paper investigates the aggregate relationship between cohort fertility and female educational attainment in Croatia. Numerous demographic studies have examined the link between fertility and the level of education. However, newer research indicates that the field of education might also play a role when trying to explain fertility behavior. We contribute to existing literature on macro-level factors related to reproductive outcomes by considering both the level and field of education as possible sources of cohort fertility differentials. The main goal of the present study is to assess the effect of structural changes in educational attainment on cohort fertility decline by means of demographic decomposition techniques. Our analysis is based on detailed 2011 Census data, which provide information on the number of livebirths by mother’s year of birth, birth order, marital status and educational attainment (i.e. the level and field of education). The results of our decomposition analyses reveal the dominance of the structural effect in explaining the overall completed fertility decline in Croatia. We assumed that the changing distribution of women by field of education at least partially accounts for the observed patterns in completed fertility but found no strong evidence in support of the outlined hypothesis. Keywords: educational level; field of education; cohort fertility; Croatia; population census Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 1-26 Volume: 54 Issue: 2 Year: 2016 Month: December DOI: 10.2298/STNV161105008C File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/76 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/76/67 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:54:y:2016:i:2:id:76 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Vladimir Nikitović Author-Workplace-Name: Demographic Research Centre, Institute of Social Sciences, Belgrade (Serbia) Author-Name: Daniela Arsenović Author-Workplace-Name: University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Sciences - Department of Geography, Tourism and Hotel Management, Novi Sad (Serbia) Title: Demographic Change and Policy Implications Publication-Status: Published Abstract: Nema. Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 127-132 Volume: 54 Issue: 2 Year: 2016 Month: December DOI: 10.59954/stnv.221 File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/221 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/221/205 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:54:y:2016:i:2:id:221 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Milica Vesković-Anđelković Author-Workplace-Name: Institute for Sociological Research, Faculty of Philosophy, University of Belgrade, Belgrade (Serbia) Title: Robert Nadler et al. (eds.) “Return Migration and Regional Development in Europe. Mobility Against the Stream” Publication-Status: Published Abstract: Nema. Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 133-137 Volume: 54 Issue: 2 Year: 2016 Month: December DOI: 10.59954/stnv.222 File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/222 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/222/206 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:54:y:2016:i:2:id:222 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Vladimir Nikitović Author-Workplace-Name: Demographic Research Centre, Institute of Social Sciences, Belgrade (Serbia) Title: Long-term Effects of Low Fertility in the Region of Former Yugoslavia Publication-Status: Published Abstract: After the dissolution of the socialist Yugoslavia (SFRY) in 1991, the quality and availability of demographic and migration statistics in the region as a whole, and especially in some of its parts are deteriorated. In addition, census rounds are not being held regularly throughout the region as of 1991. Thus, producing population projections has become rather challenging in comparison to the period of SFRY. This paper made an effort in order to overcome obstacles in terms of historic data and jump-off projection values for the whole region in accordance with adjusted data from national records. Until 1991, population of the region had been increasing almost linearly. Although SFRY was characterized by significant sub-regional differences, in terms of the beginning and the pace of demographic transition, the current total fertility rate throughout the region is below 2.1. The aim of the paper is to consider the long-term implications of low fertility and whether in this respect there would be a demographic homogenization of the region. For that purpose, we relied on the UN WPP2015 model used by the UN Population Division for producing its 2015 World Population Prospects. It enabled several important features from the viewpoint of the main tasks of the paper: the methodologically consistent datasets on main demographic indicators, probabilistic approach for modelling and forecasting fertility and mortality, the opportunity to adjust initial datasets for known issues on data quality (Serbia, Kosovo, Bosnia & Herzeg.), and ability to adjust data distribution according to the former administrative division of SFRY. The last one was of particular importance as it allowed us to take into account the well-known diversity of fertility patterns in Serbia (Vojvodina, Central Serbia and Kosovo), and to make a distinction in projection results between the sub-regions differed by the onset and tempo of fertility transition. The UN concept of post-transition recovery of total fertility rate is lying behind the hypotheses of future TFR. According to the model, Slovenia and Vojvodina has been already entered the post-transitional phase. Central Serbia and Macedonia are first to join them (as of 2020), followed by Croatia and Bosnia & Herzeg. (2025), and Montenegro (2030). However, the fertility transition in Kosovo could last until 2070. The greatest chance (median distribution of the simulated trajectories) is that TFR in the SFRY region will converge to the levels projected for Southern Europe (1.8) in 2100, except in Slovenia (1.89). Hypotheses on migration in deterministic manner were based on the “migration cycle model” introduced by Fassmann and Reeger (2012), which assume that all of Europe will eventually experience the transition to net immigration. Since the strategic objectives of all governments in the region are consistent when it comes to joining the EU, it is taken as a pivotal condition for a hypothesis on the migration transition. The symbolic turning point in the transition process in the region (2035) implies that the whole region will become the part of the EU by then. Kosovo is assumed to be the only territory not able to achieve the net immigration during the projection horizon. The greatest chances (median of the distribution) are that the population in the region of SFRY will be reduced by 16.9% between 2015 and 2055, which puts this region among the ones that are going to experience the strongest decrease (over 15%) in global terms ‒ mainly countries of the former Eastern bloc and Japan. According to the median of prediction intervals, a sharp decline is expected in Vojvodina (31.7%), Cent. Serbia (27.2 %), Bosnia & Herzeg. (22.0%), and Croatia (18.9%), which is similar to the countries that were expected to experience the greatest population decrease in the world by 2050 - Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine, and Moldova. The region reversal to the historic population maximum of 1990 seems to be not possible even in conditions of the above replacement fertility. A zone of depopulation emerged along the eastern rim of the EU, which, according to the UN model, is the most prominent depopulation zone in global terms. Prediction intervals indicate that by the mid-century, with the exception of Kosovo, only Slovenia has some chances (35%) to maintain the current population size. However, to return to its maximum population by 2100 some chance has only Slovenia (almost 30%), and only minimal Montenegro (8%), and Kosovo (5%). Old-age dependency ratio in the SFRY region is likely to double by the mid-century, while the prediction intervals suggest that even a return to the current unfavourable level is ​​outside of the range of possible outcomes throughout the region. It is the most important long-term demographic implication of low fertility. Yet, that rise has its limits. Therefore, the next four decades will be the most challenging period of getting used to the new demographic reality, which in view of the modern concept of population policy (quality before quantity) is not necessarily bad. One of the conclusions is that the significant increase in the total fertility rate, i.e. up to and around the replacement level of 2.1, which current official projections (Cent. Serbia, Vojvodina, Montenegro, and Croatia) consider as the ultimate objective of population policy, is far beyond the possible outcomes. Keywords: low fertility; the migration cycle model; Yugoslavia; population projections; UN WPP2015 Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 27-58 Volume: 54 Issue: 2 Year: 2016 Month: December DOI: 10.2298/STNV161115009N File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/75 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/75/66 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:54:y:2016:i:2:id:75 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Aleksandar Knežević Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Demography, Faculty of Geography, University of Belgrade, Belgrade (Serbia) Author-Name: Nevena Radić Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Demography, Faculty of Geography, University of Belgrade, Belgrade (Serbia) Title: The Census Categorization of Ethnic Identity: Between Theoretical Comprehensions and Statistical Practice Publication-Status: Published Abstract: Theoretical debates about ethnic identity during the second half of the 20th century did not just attract attention of academic circles, but they influenced creation of political discourse which determined public life in almost every multinational society, regardless the level of socio-economic development. In recent decades, many theories about ethnic identity have emerged, especially those about ethnicity as a relatively new concept, which caused a great deal of controversy that has been ongoing since the 1960s. Modern demography deals with problems of great social importance, especially when it comes to anthropological, social and political demography, whose results often take lead in the modern political debate. In that sense, a lot of theoretical approaches tried to emphasize the decline of importance of traditional elements of ethnic identity, even their disappearance in favor of supranational concepts, over the past more than half a century. However, in practice, the opposite processes are constantly repeating and the awareness of belonging to certain ethnic group, not only remained the important part of social life, but its significance rapidly grew in certain periods and societies. Ethnic and social pluralism of modern societies, together with massive migration flows, have initiated the review of sustainability, not only the traditional definitions of ethnic identity, but also the various supranational concepts which have mostly emerged from ethnic identification and legal nationality. The fear that ethno-cultural pluralism will have negative effects on ethno-demographic differentiation increased the need for quantitative researches of demographic characteristics of population towards ethnic marks, also for reviewing of methodological solutions of ethno-statistic evidence, starting from definitions, categorizations and statistic classification, as far as the ways of collecting and publishing the data. In that sense the censuses are considered as a base of ethno-demographic studies of French and Serbian population, in which different theoretical concepts of ethnic identity created two different approaches to ethno-statistic census process. In every Serbian census from the middle of the 19th century till today central topics were the questions about static ethno-cultural categories of religion and about mother tongue, while the question about ethnicity was asked in each and every census taken after Second World War. On the other hand, although it has the longest census tradition in Europe, the official ethno-statistic evidence of population in France has been for a long time determined by constant rejection of ethnic categorization and by the absence of questions about primary ethnic marks of population. Instead, the supranational concept of legal nationality has become the central spot while, as a feature of political integration of immigrants in a census, the question about state of birth starts to appear. The main dilemma regarding relations between prevailing theoretical concepts of ethnic identity and the official statistic practice based on Serbian and French models, still remains. Therefore, this paper shows two-way influence of ethno-statistic categorization and the real ethnic structure, and opens a discussion whether the ethnic identities have been defined by statistics or the ethnic identity is the one which defines the official statistics. Keywords: ethnic identity; census; Serbia; France; ethnic categorization Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 59-81 Volume: 54 Issue: 2 Year: 2016 Month: December DOI: 10.2298/STNV161122010K File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/77 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/77/68 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:54:y:2016:i:2:id:77 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Sanja Stojković Zlatanović Author-Workplace-Name: Centre for Legal Research, Institute of Social Sciences, Belgrade (Serbia) Title: Vulnerable Populations in terms of Health Care and their Right to Decent Work Publication-Status: Published Abstract: Vulnerability may arise from individual characteristics of individuals or social groups, employment conditions or as a result of difficulties in exercising fundamental social human rights. Principle of equity in terms of labor and employment as well as equity in health are closely linked and represented in a concept of decent work for all, promoted by the International Labor Organization. The concept of decent work aims to improve work conditions for the marginalized and vulnerable workers, where the notions “vulnerable” and “marginalized” represent people on the periphery of formal, standard employ-ment, people working in an environment where the risk of being denied employment rights is high and also those who do not have the capacity to protect themselves from the abuse. The labor status of social groups whose personal characteristics, i.e. health characteristics, make them vulnerable in terms of work conditions and labor rights has been analyzed. In international, comparative and Serbian law, workers with disabilities are already protected by the special law provisions of professional rehabilitation and employment of people with disabilities. On the contrary, the status of workers who are not considered as people with disabilities but who are faced with some health problems are not recognized in the labor legislation and protected by the law. People with health problems may be those who are chronically ill i.e. people in a remission of a disease. Considering the current demographic process of population aging, an increase of elderly in economically active population/labor force could be expected, which also means the increase of chronically ill workers. This fact, argue in favor of regulation the labor status of people with health problems. Furthermore, according to the World Health Organization, health is a state of complete physical, mental and social well-being and not merely the absence of disease or infirmity, where the third component of health – social well-being could be used as justification for the integration of workers with health problems in the workplace. The aim is to prevent the occurrence of disability in terms of preventive approach. The integration and protection measures are represented in a form of flexible work arrangements (for instance, part-time work, tele-work), assignment a person with a health problem to another adequate job, establishment the right to a paid leave for the purpose of therapy by the law, prohibition of a night shift and overtime job for worker with health problems. The Serbian Labor Act (2005) has introduced a category of workers with the health problems and stipulates that those workers could not be assigned to a job that could have a negative effect to a health status/condition of an individual. A broader protection measures in terms of decent work and health equity, meaning that everyone should have a fair opportunity to attain their full health potential with the aim of performing major life activities, including working activities, are not introduced by the Serbian Labor Act. That need to be changed, taking into account the fact that the Serbian Disability Act does not recognize the workers with temporary or/and occasional health impairments, meaning that the special measures of professional integration of people with disabilities could not be applied to the people with health problems. Keywords: vulnerable social groups; health problems; right to decent work; anti-discrimination law Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 83-103 Volume: 54 Issue: 2 Year: 2016 Month: December DOI: 10.2298/STNV160725004S File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/78 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/78/69 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:54:y:2016:i:2:id:78 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Marija Brujić Author-Workplace-Name: Institute of Ethnology and Anthropology, Faculty of Philosophy, University of Belgrade, Belgrade (Serbia) Title: “When You Marry a Serb, then You Do Not Have Any Problems”. Foreigners in Serbia – Introduction to Anthropological Analysis Publication-Status: Published Abstract: Although according to some scholars, Serbia does not have great immigration potential, there is more and more research within social science’s framework about immigrants in Serbia. However, the majority of these papers focus on current “migration crisis” and, in relation to this, asylum seekers and irregular migrants. Therefore, this paper has had manifold aims. Firstly, the paper has drawn attention to the anthropological study of foreigners who live and work in Serbia. Secondly, it has revealed some of the problems they had been confronted with in reality. Within this framework, the focus was on highly qualified female foreigners from the EU countries who came for love or/and work which is a topic that does not occupy a prominent place in anthropological research in Serbia. However, with regard to the EU-integration of Serbia and Europeanization of migratory policies, the research of personal experiences of foreigners living in Serbia could signify the gaps in migrants’ integration policy and in the adaptation of migration strategies. Thus, in this research were used in-depth semi-structured interviews conducted in 2016 in Belgrade as a method of collecting data and the “bottom-up” approach. As a result, in this paper were analyzed narratives of a German and a British woman about their everyday experiences connected with their residing and working status. Their narratives showed their struggle with Serbian bureaucracy and related to this, how they legalized their “migratory status”. Furthermore, in the analysis of the micro context the term “ethnography of particular” was used, an approach developed by Lila Abu-Lughod in order to, one the one hand, avoid generalization and, on the other, to focus on individual life histories, which is an approach usually used in socio-anthropological studies. In particular, the paper stresses the relevance of individual strategies used for regulation of residence of foreigners in Serbia. Both British and German woman are married to Serbs, have no children, speak The Serbian language, socialize mainly with the Serbs and live and work in Belgrade. While German woman came during Milošević’s regime in 1999, the British woman came in 2002. Although they did not suffer from “professional deskilling”, which is typical for female migration in general, they both had to prequalify in order to find a job in Serbia. However, they both found it was easier to regulate their residence status through family, not working, visa, especially before new legal documents concerning foreigners’ status were introduced. For instance, the most important legal document adopted as part of EU-integration process are Law on Foreigners (2008), Law on Migration Management (2012) and Law on Employment and Work of Foreign Citizens (2014). Foreigners living in Serbia represent the important group as many of them either work or use their pensions in Serbia. Therefore, having in mind the importance of Europeanization of migratory strategies in Serbia within Europeanization of Serbia and EU-integration process in general and possible migration of EU nationals to Serbia, this paper discussed the importance of individual (working) migration to Serbia on a micro level. Keywords: foreigners; highly qualified migration; anthropology; Serbia; Europeanization of migratory policies Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 105-125 Volume: 54 Issue: 2 Year: 2016 Month: December DOI: 10.2298/STNV161005007B File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/79 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/79/70 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:54:y:2016:i:2:id:79