Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Milena Spasovski Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Geography, University of Belgrade, Belgrade (Serbia) Author-Name: Danica Šantić Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Geography, University of Belgrade, Belgrade (Serbia) Title: Development of Population Geography from Anthropogeography to Spatial-Analytical Approach Publication-Status: Published Abstract: Population geography is a subdiscipline of Human geography and studies the distribution, concentration and density of population over the terrestrial surface, as well as differences in population size, changes and characteristics, like structures, migrations, activity etc., among some places present compared to others. Population geography has had a prescientific stage as long as human history. First modern scientific treaty of population in geography was the F. Ratzels book Anthropogeography in 1882. During the first half of the XX century, French geographer Vidal de la Blanche gave a capital importance of population studies in his work Principles de Geographie Humaine. In interwar years, various aspects of population were studied. After the Second World War started the renovating movement of geography and new tendencies appear in human geography and, consequently in population geography. Attempts were made to define population geography as a separate sub-discipline. The worldwide trend of treating population geography as separate discipline was expressed by publishing monographs, bibliographies and textbooks. The most significant authors who worked on defining population geography were French geographers P. George (1951, 1959), Beaujen-Garnier (1965, 1966); North-american geographers: G. Trewarta (1953, 1969), W. Bunge (1962), J. Clance (1965, 1971), W. Zelinski (1966); in Great Britain: J.I. Clarke (1965); in USSR: Ю.Г. Саушкин i Д.Н. Aнучин (1950), В.В. Покшишевский (1966), Д.И. Валентeй (1973); in Poland V. Ormotski (1931), L. Kosinski (1967) A. Jagelski (1980). Those authors and their works had the significant influence on the development of population science in the world and also in Serbia. Although the development of population geography was different in different countries and scientific research centers, we can clearly define four stages. First stage lasted until the 1960s and was characterised by works of G.Тrewarta, H. Doerres Ю.Г. Саушкин, Д.Н. Aнучин, J. Beaujeu-Gariner. G. Trewarta argued that the population is the point of reference from which all other elements are observed, and from which all derive significance and meaning. This view was adopted and shared by authors dealing with population items, explicitly or implicitly. Second stage lasted from 1960s till 1970s and the most significant authors dealing with population problems were W. Zelinsky, W. Bunge; H. Bobek, W. Hartke, K. Ruppert, F. Schaffer; Д. И. Валентeй, K. Korčak. This phase was characterized by the application of quantitative methods and efforts for understanding the spatial structure of the population. Many scientists see this development phase as a particularly prosperous period, because it carried more intensive relations of geography and demography through the introduction of statistical, mathematical and demographic methods and techniques in studies of population geography. Third phase lasted from 1970s to 1980s and was characterized by close relations between population geography and formal demography. Development and application of GIS and computer data have made population studies more complex and applicable in practice, through population policy and population projections. The most significant authors in this period were L. Kosinski, A. Jagelski, Hägerstrand. And at last, fourth stage started in the 1980s and in many countries lasts until present days. In population geography appeared new tendencies associated with the critique of positivism, the establishment of humanistic approaches and modifications of general geographic concepts. In this period, spatial analysis and quantitative scientific methods were reaffirmed, and because of that some population studies were redefined in spatial demography, a time dimension advocated in historical demography. In this context, we emphasize the work of D. Plane and P. Rogerson. Population geography is viewed differently from one country to another. Its definition differs from too narrow to overly broad. But two research areas were of particular interest to geographers – population distribution and migration. Both items   acquired   an   international   dimension. Recently, eminent   population geographers exchanged various viewpoints in an attempt to provoke new thinking on subject and define the answers of new fields research in population geography. Population geography in the XXI Century is no longer a field comprised of spatial applications of fertility, mortality and migration only. Contemporary population geography is theoretically sophisticated, integrating spatial analysis, GIS and geo-referenced data. Future progress in the field of population geography will derive from more research at the intersections of population processes and societal issues and concerns. Major themes of future empirical research in population geography should be: global population growth, studies of migration, transnationalism, human security issues, population-health-environment nexus, human-environment sustainability, economic development and poverty issues. Keywords: population geography; antropogeography; human geography; migration; demography Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 1-22 Volume: 51 Issue: 2 Year: 2013 Month: December DOI: 10.2298/STNV1302001S File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/105 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/105/96 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:51:y:2013:i:2:id:105 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Vladimir Nikitović Author-Workplace-Name: Demographic Research Centre, Institute of Social Sciences, Belgrade (Serbia) Title: On the occasion of the anniversary Publication-Status: Published Abstract: No abstract. Journal: Stanovnistvo Volume: 51 Issue: 2 Year: 2013 Month: December DOI: 10.59954/stnv.217 File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/217 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/217/202 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:51:y:2013:i:2:id:217 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Vladimir Nikitović Author-Workplace-Name: Demographic Research Centre Title: Probabilistic population forecast of Serbia by 2100 following the 2012 UN projection model Publication-Status: Published Abstract: Nema. Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 95-101 Volume: 51 Issue: 2 Year: 2013 Month: December DOI: 10.59954/stnv.234 File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/234 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/234/218 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:51:y:2013:i:2:id:234 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mirjana Devedžić Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Geography, University of Belgrade, Belgrade (Serbia) Title: Crossroads of Demography Publication-Status: Published Abstract: This paper is dedicated to the 50th anniversary of the Stanovništvo (Population) journal, launched by the Center for demographic research in Belgrade in 1963. The anniversary is an opportunity to reflect on developments and trends in demography as a discipline, thus the paper points out certain specifics of these developments. The specifics discussed mirror the author's choice, which was guided primarily by the criterion of interestingness, but also by the intention to make a survey. Hence points about the development of demography are backed by insights made by a number of other demographers. The major source of references were papers and speeches given on similar occasions – anniversaries of journals, anniversaries of associations of demographers, as well as special issues of journals dedicated to theory and methodology. Certain points are also made based on other sources of reference. The major part of the paper is related to transformations of demography, which has started as a predominantly formal discipline and has developed into a social and interdisciplinary field. Topical and methodological expansion of demography induces mixed reactions among demographers. Ones welcome its diversification, whereas others see such changes as signs of abandoning the essence of demography. This makes it harder and harder to define the area of demographic research. Changes in demography are mostly studied from the standpoint of polarized dimensions: quantitative-qualitative, macro-micro, and, in the context of diversification, formal demography vs. population studies. Another important segment of development trends in demography is that of improving its vocabulary, which is affected by other fields related to demography. Terminological changes are also related to the specification of certain branches and subfields of demography. For instance, anthropological and spatial demography have roots in earlier development phases of demography. Still, these terms have become popular at a later stage, only when the methodological and cognitive capacities of the corresponding research approaches have increased. The paper also indicates that demographers do not find new inspiration only outside of the core demographic problems. As an example, man fertility is briefly discussed as an increasingly popular topic in literature during the last decade. Finally, attractive presentation of demographic content is found to be very important for visibility and applicability of demography, which is illustrated by interpreting some of the most frequently videos related to demography on YouTube. The paper concludes that different paths that open during the development of demography are not incompatible, that they represent demographers' diverse choices, and that they all contribute to strengthening the field. Keywords: demography; development; divergence; terminology Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 23-38 Volume: 51 Issue: 2 Year: 2013 Month: December DOI: 10.2298/STNV1302023D File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/106 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/106/97 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:51:y:2013:i:2:id:106 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mirjana Rašević Author-Workplace-Name: Demographic Research Centre, Institute of Social Sciences, Belgrade (Serbia) Title: Serbian Demographers on Demography Publication-Status: Published Abstract: Introduction: The objective of this paper is to collect the opinions of the leading demographers in Serbia on four significant matters. The matters are: development, state and future of demography, the successfulness of researchers in this scientific discipline, improvement of the Stanovništvo journal, as well as the population priority of our society and range of population policies. Method:  A qualitative interview was chosen as the instrument for data collection. Namely, a structured interview, based on nine questions was sent by e-mail to eleven addresses of relevant demographers in the second half of October 2013. The basic reason for sending questions by e-mail was the aspiration to obtain authentic replies which require time for contemplation. Ten completed questionnaires were returned within two weeks. On the one hand, an integral picture on the chosen themes for research was attempted to be obtained in the analysis of received opinions to certain groups of questions and on the other hand to portray the spectrum of different observations. The responses of our prominent demographers were analyzed and compared to clearly pronounced standpoints of eminent demographers published in world journals on similar themes and with findings of internet researches among members of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population. Results: The results show that there is a high level of consent among demographers in Serbia regarding the well positioning of demography in relation to other social studies and its good perspectives. The interviewed experts see the future of demography in its integration with a wide circle of sciences, the application of demography and/or greater engagement of researchers in carrying out public policies. However, the estimations of the interviewed demographers as regards the development and state of demography in Serbia are divided. Although a large number of topics had been listed, migrations and population ageing were singled out the most as significant for examining in the immediate future. The inclusion of Stanovništvo on the Science Citation Information Journal List and expanding the circle of authors were the basic recommendations of the respondents regarding better quality of the journal. All interviewed experts mentioned various kinds of knowledge and characteristics necessary for demographers to posses in order to be successful. Contrary to the homogeneous opinion that a demographer should be a superior-researcher, a wide range of responses were given to the question regarding selecting the best indicator for determining the successfulness of researchers in the study of population. As many as eight out of ten interviewed experts believe population ageing is the greatest population challenge which Serbia is facing. However, a low level of consensus appeared among the demographers as regards the range of the political response. Namely, five experts declared they were pessimists in view of the possibilities for mitigating the challenge they singled out. On the contrary, five interviewed experts expressed optimism, as they believe in the economic development of Serbia, the possibilities of institutional adjustments to demographic changes, and/or in man and his rationality. Conclusion: Demographers in Serbia highly appreciate the discipline they belong to. At the same time they are strict critics and have high expectations in all matters dealing with demography. Keywords: demographers; demography; Serbia Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 39-51 Volume: 51 Issue: 2 Year: 2013 Month: December DOI: 10.2298/STNV1302039R File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/107 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/107/98 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:51:y:2013:i:2:id:107 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Vladimir Nikitović Author-Workplace-Name: Demographic Research Centre, Institute of Social Sciences, Belgrade (Serbia) Title: Demographic Future of Serbia from a Different Angle Publication-Status: Published Abstract: Based  on  the  assessment  of  the  empirical  errors  in  the  official  population forecasts of Serbia, the paper shows why forecast users might want a change of the current official concept. The article consists of three parts. The first gives a brief chronological overview of the methods and hypotheses in the official population forecasts of Serbia during the last 60 years. The second refers to the quantification of the past forecast errors in projecting total fertility rate, life expectancy at birth and total population aiming at assessment of the empirical variability. The third part shows the probabilistic population forecast of Serbia based on Bayesian hierarchical models of vital components, as implemented in the 2012 revision of United Nations World population prospects. The empirical error served as an evaluation tool of the probabilistic distributions of total population. In spite of the increased availability and quality of input data and developing of advanced projection techniques during the period, there was no obvious improvement noted neither in accuracy nor in the expression of the uncertainty inherent to forecasting in the official population forecasts in Serbia up to date. In general, fertility has been overestimated while improvements in mortality have been underestimated. It has been shown that accuracy largely depends on the stability of demographic processes throughout the projection horizon, which confirms findings from similar studies in other countries. The uncertainty in the demographic  trends  remains  a  major  challenge  for  forecasters.  A  typical judgment that the smallest error will be made if a recently observed trend is assumed to continue has been linked to the low fertility variant in the past Serbian forecasts. The target level of the medium fertility, interpreted as "most likely" outcome, was firmly bound to replacement fertility until recently thus reflecting desirable rather than realistic future. Therefore, the reversal in the trend of the total population of Serbia came as a surprise or much earlier than expected for the forecasters. The probabilistic population forecast of Serbia provides results that users can clearly understand and use along with attached information on error magnitude. Before running the projection model, it was necessary to adjust the 2012 UN estimates for  Serbia  to suit the current  official  estimates and recent relevant studies on demographic trends in the country. The comparison of probabilistic hypotheses and results with the current official projection aims to highlight the key benefits of the new approach in terms of reduced subjectivity, improved accuracy and quantified uncertainty. The latter could be particularly relevant for decision makers allowing them to calculate the expected costs involved in wrong decisions. From the perspective of the forecast based on "UN model", the strong optimism of the current official projection appears to be groundless. Besides, the empiric evaluation of the probabilistic distributions of total population suggests that it fully reflects the pattern of observed uncertainty in the past forecasts of Serbian population. Keywords: UN World population prospects; probabilistic projections; empirical error; Serbia Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 53-81 Volume: 51 Issue: 2 Year: 2013 Month: December DOI: 10.2298/STNV1302053N File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/108 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/108/99 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:51:y:2013:i:2:id:108 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Aleksandar Bošković Author-Workplace-Name: Centre for Politicological Research and Public Opinion, Institute of Social Sciences, Belgrade (Serbia) Title: Anthropology and Demography Publication-Status: Published Abstract: The paper presents an outline of the relationship between anthropology and demography, sometimes depicted as "long, tortured, often ambivalent, and sometimes passionate." Although early anthropologists (primarily British social anthropologists) routinely made use of demographic data, especially in their studies of kinship, the two disciplines gradually drifted away from each other. The re-approachment took place from 1960s, and the last fifteen years saw more intensive cooperation and more insights about possible mutual benefits that could be  achieved  through   combining  of  methodologies  and  revision   of  some theoretical assumptions, primarily through anthropological demography. As summarized by Laura Bernardi and Inge Hutter, "Anthropological demography is a specialty within demography that uses anthropological theory and methods to provide a better understanding of demographic phenomena in current and past populations.   Its   genesis   and   ongoing   growth   lies   at   the   intersection   of demography and socio-cultural anthropology and with their efforts to understand population processes: mainly fertility, migration, and mortality. Both disciplines share a common research subject, namely human populations, and they focus on mutually complementary aspects" (2007: 541). In the first part of the paper, the author presents some general considerations, like the one that "demography is one of the best understood and predictable parts of human behavior, even if demographers still find themselves unable to predict accurately when parameters will change in interesting ways, such as the ′the baby boom′ or the shift to later childbeanng in the 1970s and 1980s North America" (Howell, 1986: 219). Nancy Howell also noted the importance of demographic anthropology, because, in her words "if we knew, reliably, the birth and death probability schedules of particular populations, we would know a great deal about their size, age composition, growth rate. And with just a little more information we would know a great deal more such as household and family composition, economic organization, social problems, and something of the political structure. It we knew the schedules for populations in general and could correlate the schedules with the causes, genetic or environmental, that produce them, we would know a great deal about the possible range of human social structure" (Howell, 1986: 219). In the second part of the paper, the author discusses several examples of interplay between anthropology and demography. One of them is Patrick Heady′s study of the shift in ritual patterns, which combines elements of some "classical" anthropological  topics  (Mauss’s  theory  of  gift  exchange  and  Lévi-Strauss′s concept of kinship) with his own field research in the Carnian Alps. "By marrying and raising children, parents participate in a system of gift-exchange in which the gifts in question are human lives, and the parties to the exchange are the kinship groups recognised in the society concerned. Fertility reflects the attitudes of prospective parents to their place in the existing system of reproductive exchange, and the relationships of cooperation and authority which it implies – as well as their confidence in the system’s continuing viability. It is shown that this view is compatible with earlier ideas about self-regulating population systems – and that changing  economic  circumstances  are  an  important  source  of  discrepancy between existing exchange systems and the attitudes and expectations of prospective parents" (Heady, 2007: 465). The paper concludes with the discussion of the directions in which relationship between these two disciplines can proceed. Some of the epistemological issues are mentioned, as well as a need to apply different theoretical perspectives to better understand demographic behavior (especially in Europe) and to better understand  certain  cultural  components  that  shape  this  behavior.  In  order  to achieve this, most of the scholars whose works are discussed in this paper emphasize "the need for a holistic approach to data collection and the added value of triangulating quantitative and qualitative analyses" (Bernardi, Hutter, 2007: 541). Keywords: anthropology and demography; anthropological demography; history of anthropology; multidisciplinary research; methodology of social sciences Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 83-94 Volume: 51 Issue: 2 Year: 2013 Month: December DOI: 10.2298/STNV1302083B File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/109 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/109/100 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:51:y:2013:i:2:id:109