Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Gordana Matković Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Economics, Finance and Administration (FEFA), Belgrade (Serbia) Title: Long-Term Care of the Elderly – Current Status, Policies and Dilemmas Publication-Status: Published Abstract: In Serbia, the long-term care as a system does not actually exist. One part of the system is regulated through cash benefits, one part through institutional social care and community-based social services, and one part is just being established under the health care system. The linkages among these segments are not strong and there is insufficient awareness of the need to regard the different parts of the system as being interdependent and interconnected.   According to the different surveys, home care is needed for the daily functioning of more than 80,000 elderly people, especially for around 27,000 of those who are completely immobile. More than 300 thousand elderly persons have indicated that they are in need of some type of self-care support. By tradition, elderly people in Serbia rely primarily on family support. Some are getting the state support as well. Research shows that 62 thousand elderly persons (5 percent) receive attendance allowance; 9,000 elderly are accommodated in institutions (0.7 percent), while 11.7 thousand (1 percent) persons received some type of support through home care community based services. In addition, in Belgrade there are also 2,000 elderly who are beneficiaries of medical and palliative care at home. The government expenditures for these purposes can be very roughly estimated at 0.55 percent of GDP, largely for cash benefits (0.37 percent). Considered over a medium and longer term, the government expenditures on long-term care in Serbia will inevitably increase significantly, primarily due to an increase in the number and share of elderly people and the increase in additional life years spent in ill health or in need of assistance. An increase in the expenditures will also be influenced by a change in the family models and the increasing number of elderly that will be living alone, as well as the diminishing possibilities for reliance on the closest family members, especially due to emigration flows both at local and national levels. Finally, it is important not to neglect the effect of emulating more developed countries, as well as the EU’s pressure to adequately respond to the needs of the elderly. Therefore, the state and society must promptly prepare a systematic, comprehensive, timely and fiscally responsible response. This response must recognize the capacities of all stakeholders, from family to state and non-state and match the capacities with the appropriate roles in the system of long-term care provision. Keywords: ageing; long-term care; attendance allowance; home care services; long term care; public expenditures Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 1-18 Volume: 50 Issue: 1 Year: 2012 Month: July DOI: 10.2298/STNV1201001M File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/110 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/110/101 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:50:y:2012:i:1:id:110 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jelena Stojilković Author-Workplace-Name: Geographical Institute "Jovan Cvijic" SASA, Belgrade (Serbia) Title: Vladimir Nikitović "Demographic Future of Serbia: Immigration as a Certainty?" Publication-Status: Published Abstract: Nema. Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 107-118 Volume: 50 Issue: 1 Year: 2012 Month: July DOI: 10.59954/stnv.239 File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/239 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/239/223 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:50:y:2012:i:1:id:239 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ivana Ostojić Author-Workplace-Name: Center for Economic Research, Institute of Social Sciences, Belgrade (Serbia) Title: Collection of Works "Population and Development" Publication-Status: Published Abstract: Nema. Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 119-121 Volume: 50 Issue: 1 Year: 2012 Month: July DOI: 10.59954/stnv.240 File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/240 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/240/224 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:50:y:2012:i:1:id:240 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Aleksandar Zdravković Author-Workplace-Name: Institute of Economic Sciences, Belgrade (Serbia) Author-Name: Ivana Domazet Author-Workplace-Name: Institute of Economic Sciences, Belgrade (Serbia) Author-Name: Vladimir Nikitović Author-Workplace-Name: Demographic Research Centre, Institute of Social Sciences, Belgrade (Serbia) Title: Impact of Demographic Ageing on Sustainability of Public Finance in Serbia Publication-Status: Published Abstract: Population ageing is a global phenomenon without precedent in the history of humanity having implications in all facets of life. From an economic point of view, population ageing is certainly one of the biggest challenges of modern time. A consequence of these global demographic tendencies reflected in growing number of pensioners which negatively affects sustainability of public pension systems financed by the principle of intergenerational solidarity (Pay-As-You-Go) - widely represented in public pension schemes of European countries. In this paper, impact of demographic ageing on pension systems is analyzed in the context of sustainability of public finance in Serbia in the period 2010-2050. Although the comparative analysis of the pension expenditure share in gross domestic product (GDP) does not point to significant differences between Serbia and the countries in the neighborhood and the European Union, the growth trend of subsidizing the Pension Fund from the government budget endangers medium-term sustainability of the public pension system in Serbia, bearing in mind that the implementation of measures proposed in pension reforms can be valorized only in the long run. The main objective of the analysis is projecting long-term pension expenditure as a share of GDP. The projections were formed indirectly by modeling the average pension expenditure, because this variable incorporates both growth in the total pension expenditure and growth in the number of pensioners as a result of demographic trends, and better reflects the actual growth of pension expenditure. For the purposes of the analysis, in addition to the projection of real GDP growth, size of the inactive population aged 65 and over, as the main contingent of the pension system users and the total number of pensioners, was projected by means of stochastic cohort component methodology. Based on these projections and assumptions about the growth rate of average pension expenditure (three scenarios), the projections of total pension expenditure (as a percentage of GDP) are produced for the period 2010-2050. The results indicate that the growth rate of pension expenditure over the past few years is unsustainable in the long run. However, there is fiscal space for continuous real growth of pensions that does not jeopardize the budget deficit on the medium term, and leads to long-term reduction of the share of pension expenditures in GDP. The proposed change would not affect sustainability of the pension system and consequently public finance in Serbia, even in completely certain circumstances of significant increase in the number of elderly and their pressure on the workforce. In this context, critical review of the current government approach to the pension growth dynamics was given from the perspective of medium-term sustainability of pension system, which resulted in appropriate recommendations. Generally, the intent of the Government of the Republic of Serbia on the indexation of pensions represent a good solution long term, but the premise of increasing pensions for a part of real GDP growth, if it is higher than 4%, is subject to criticism from the point of view of medium-term sustainability. The crisis cycle of the Serbian economy, similarly to that on a global level, has its maximum and minimum phase. After a maximum of the crisis is reached, there should be a few years of economic stagnation followed by gradual, and then by faster economic growth. Due to the projection of a relatively higher rate of economic growth and GDP in a future economic recovery, there is an increased risk that such a growth could be followed by sudden jumps in the growth of pensions, which could result in unsustainable funding of pension system. Therefore, the Government should impose some limitations in terms of the maximum increase in pension per annum in case of intensive and high economic growth. Keywords: demographic ageing; population projection; public finance; pension expenditure; Serbia Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 19-44 Volume: 50 Issue: 1 Year: 2012 Month: July DOI: 10.2298/STNV1201019Z File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/111 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/111/102 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:50:y:2012:i:1:id:111 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mirjana Devedžić Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Geography, University of Belgrade, Belgrade (Serbia) Author-Name: Jelena Stojilković Author-Workplace-Name: Geographical Institute "Jovan Cvijić" SASA, Belgrade (Serbia) Title: New Concept of Age(Ing) – Prospective Age Publication-Status: Published Abstract: While the last century was the century of world population growth, according to demographers, the XXI century will be century of population aging. Statistics undoubtedly show that number of elderly will continue it’s growth in the future. If old age is seen as period of life with reduced physical and mental capabilities and increased disability, and demographic aging as increase of dependent population, trends are quite disturbing, at least in certain societal segments. In developed countries, this population category is no longer treated as passive or as a "burden of society" and efforts are made for better social inclusion of older people. In contrast to growing interest in this phenomenon, the concepts that define the aging of the population remained stagnant. The aim of this paper is to introduce into domestic literature the term "prospective age" as a dynamic category which is more affected with socio-historical conditions, not only with biological as traditional definition of aging suggested. Papers written by Sanderson and Scherbov offer new methodological options for study of population aging, because it takes into account the biometric rather than chronological approach. Calculation of prospective years is a simple operation that requires pair of the same number of remained life expectancy from life tables for two different periods (the year of concern is index, and the one we are comparing with is standard year), so that phrase "40s is the new 30s" or "70s the new 60s" gets scientific foundation. Average remaining years of life represent a realistic indicator suggesting increased capacity, activity and vitality of individuals, which is due to accepted demographic parameters still considered old. „Prospective threshold“ is defined as the age when life expectancy falls below 15 years (it is subjective choice made by Sanderson and Scherbov, which is also used in this paper) and during the elaboration of these ideas three demographic indicators was constructed, redefined more precisely, based on prospective age: (prospective) share of the elderly, (prospective) median age and (prospective) old age dependency ratio. With respect to the remaining years of life in the calculation of demographic aging, world’s population will be in rejuvenation process by 2035, longer and more intense than defined by proportion of the elderly. Prospective approach found that longer life expectancy in developing countries is not only a result of the decrease in infant and child mortality, but also the decrease of the old population mortality. Data used in this paper are from period life tables and censuses, for period 1953–2010. Prospective age threshold in Serbia was always higher than retrospective age (60,17 in 1953 .and 63,15 in 2010. for total population) , or the proportion of people with a life expectancy less than 15 years has consistently been higher than the share of people older than 65 years (17.86% vs. 16.92% in 2010). According to prospective criteria, differences between men and women almost do not existent, so that it calls into question the widely accepted feminization of the elderly. The same conclusion stands when we discuss (prospective) median age, population is older using prospective (47,15 years) than traditional (41.41) indicator in 2010, also, compared with rest of the region or with more developed countries, prospective median age is higher in Serbia. Also, prospective old-age dependecy ratio is higher than convetional one during analyzed period. Prospective concept and amendments are necessary in public policy, especially pension and health care system, because in combination with traditional approaches can create more justified distribution for older and younger generations. Keywords: population aging; prospective age; redefinition of aging; life expectancy Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 45-68 Volume: 50 Issue: 1 Year: 2012 Month: July DOI: 10.2298/STNV1201045D File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/112 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/112/106 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:50:y:2012:i:1:id:112 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Dragica Živojinović Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Law, University of Kragujevac, Kragujevac (Serbia) Title: The Principle of Equality and the Right to Assisted Procreation Publication-Status: Published Abstract: The principal of equality is the foundation of developing an entire system of human rights, and its implementation represents the standard of respecting each right individually. With these premises as a starting point, the subject of the author’s interests is whether the right to assisted reproduction, as a segment of reproductive rights, is regulated in conformity with the equality principal. In order to reach an answer, the author examines the concept of human assisted reproduction and analyzes the application of reproductive technologies in the light of legal, social and political reforms which affected marriages, the family and partnership in general at the end of the 20th century. The author finds that the most significant ones among them are the emancipation of women, recognition and legal formation of same sex unions and statements prohibiting discrimination based on sexual orientation. Furthermore, by considering the right to assisted reproduction in the context of other human rights with which it is interconnected and interdependent (the right to life, right to privacy, the right to a family life, health rights, children’s rights), the author finds there are no absolute, unlimited rights in the contemporary system of human rights, but that they inevitably have certain restrictions. Since the same limitation attribute also characterizes the right to assisted reproduction, the author further researches whether there is discrimination, positive or negative, towards the existing forms of limitations to this right. The following forms of limitations have been singled out, as the key ones for this analysis: request for (non)marital status and heterosexual orientation, sexual affiliation and age and the accessibility (prohibition) of applying certain methods of assisted reproduction which are primarily in the function of eliminating female sterility. The author concludes that there are elements of discrimination based on family status, sexual orientation, age and sexual affiliation. The author finds that emphasizing the need to protect the best interests of children, as a crucial reason for justifying their introduction, can hardly be defended both legally and ethically. The author believes that the basis of limitation lies in the reasons of social suitability, namely buying social peace at the present level of development of social conscience. By appealing to the principal of equality, the author intercedes in favor of accessibility to the right for assisted reproduction under equal conditions and limitations for each user, and prohibiting discrimination on any basis. Keywords: equality principle; human assisted reproduction; human rights; discrimination; limited rights to assisted reproduction Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 69-87 Volume: 50 Issue: 1 Year: 2012 Month: July DOI: 10.2298/STNV1201069Z File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/113 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/113/107 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:50:y:2012:i:1:id:113 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ivan Marinković Author-Workplace-Name: Demographic Research Centre, Institute of Social Sciences, Belgrade (Serbia) Title: Causes of Death in Serbia since the mid-20th Century Publication-Status: Published Abstract: The structure of the leading causes of death in Serbia has considerably changed in the last half century. Diseases which presented the main threat to the population a few decades ago are now at the level of a statistical error. On the one side are causes which drastically changed their share in total mortality in this time interval, while others have shown stability and persistence among the basic causes of death. Acute infectious diseases "have been replaced" with chronic noninfectious diseases, due to the improvement of general and health conditions. One of the consequences of such changes is increased life expectancy and a larger share of older population which resulted in cardiovascular diseases and tumors to dominate more and more in total mortality. Convergent trends in the structure of the leading causes of death in Serbia from the middle of the 20th century are the reasons why there are considerably fewer diseases and causes with a significant rate in total population mortality at the beginning of the 21st century. During the 1950s, there were five groups of diseases and causes which participated individually with more than 10% of population mortality (infectious diseases, heart and circulatory diseases, respiratory diseases, some perinatal conditions and undefined states) while at the beginning of the new century there were only two such groups (cardiovascular diseases and tumors). Identical trends exist in all European countries, as well as in the rest of the developed world. The leading causes of death in Serbia are cardiovascular diseases. An average of somewhat over 57.000 people died annually in the period from 2007 – 2009, which represents 55.5% of total population mortality. Women are more numerous among the deceased and this difference is increasing due to population feminization. The most frequent cause of death in Serbia, after heart and circulatory diseases, are tumors, which caused 21,415 deaths in 2009. Neoplasms are responsible for one fifth of all deaths. Their number has doubled in three decades, from 9,107 in 1975 to about 20,000 at the beginning of the 21st century, whereby tumors have become the fastest growing cause of death. Least changes in absolute number of deaths in the last half century were marked among violent deaths. Observed by gender, men are in average three times more numerous among violent deaths than women. In the middle of the 20th century in Serbia, one third of the deaths caused by violence were younger than 25 and as many as one half were younger than 35 years old. Only one tenth (11%) of total number of violent deaths were from the age group of 65 or older. At the end of the first decade of the 21st century (2009), the share of population younger than 25 in the total number of violent deaths was decreased four times (and amounted to 8%). At the same time, the rate of those older than 65 or more quadrupled (amounted to 39%). Keywords: mortality; causes of death; Serbia; 1950-2009; municipality Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 89-106 Volume: 50 Issue: 1 Year: 2012 Month: July DOI: 10.2298/STNV1201089M File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/114 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/114/108 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:50:y:2012:i:1:id:114