Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Тамара Павловна Сабгайда
Author-Workplace-Name: Central Research Institute for Organization and Informatization of Health, Ministry of Healthcare and Social Development, Moscow (Russia)
Author-Name: Алла Ефимовна Иванова
Author-Workplace-Name: Central Research Institute for Organization and Informatization of Health, Ministry of Healthcare and Social Development, Moscow (Russia)
Author-Name: Виктория Георгиевна Семенова
Author-Workplace-Name: Central Research Institute for Organization and Informatization of Health, Ministry of Healthcare and Social Development, Moscow (Russia)
Author-Name: Галина Николаевна Евдокушкина
Author-Workplace-Name: Central Research Institute for Organization and Informatization of Health, Ministry of Healthcare and Social Development, Moscow (Russia)
Title: Avoidable Mortality in the Russian Regions
Publication-Status: Published
Abstract: The current trends of avoidable mortality, which is an integral indicator of health system performance, were analyzed. The paper discusses the regional heterogeneity of levels and trends in avoidable mortality in the Russian Federation. Also, it contains the analysis of impact of the financial costs of public health on avoidable mortality in regions with different levels of economic development.
 The last 20-years period was studied, which includes a stage of crisis as well as a social recovery phase. The official data of the State Statistics Committee were analyzed. In Russia, all death cases are registered in accordance to the international classification ICD-10. Special computer program summarizes death cases from preventable causes, and calculates the standardized rates for the population aged from 5 to 64 years. The old European standard of population age structure is used. Estimates of avoidable mortality were made in accordance with the European approach, under which avoidable mortality accumulates deaths of persons aged from 5 to 64 years due to 34 causes and 4 classes of causes. These 38 causes are divided into 3 groups according to three levels of diseases prevention.
 The level of avoidable mortality in the different regions varies up to 8 times. That is comparable to the difference between Russia and the countries of European Union in 1994. This gap is due to the coexistence of different stages of epidemiological development among the regions in Russia.
 When death rates increased, it is shown that mortality from causes which are preventable by measures of primary and tertiary prevention increased to a greater extent than mortality from the causes which depend from measures of secondary prevention. Therein, the largest growth of observed mortality was due to low quality of medical care in case of males (group 3), and due to causes which are preventable by measures of primary prevention in case of females (group 1). When mortality was reduced, the rates of change for causes in groups 1 and 3 were approximately the same for both sexes. Avoidable mortality due to late detection of malignant tumors (group 2) has been changed the least.
 Preventable component defines over 80% of the regional differences in death rates.  In 2009, the level of avoidable mortality differed more than fourfold among different regions of the Russia. Similarly, the difference in the level of unavoidable mortality was 1.3-fold and 1.7-fold, for males and females respectively. Proportion of deaths from preventable causes in the total sum of death cases varies from 40% till 75%.
 Funding for comprehensive programs of public health to a greater extent stimulates the reduction in mortality from preventable causes of the first group. Mortality connected with quality of medical care is more determined by socio-political situation in the country than by regional health care expenses.
 Based on these results, it is concluded that the action plans to reduce mortality in Russia must have a strong regional specificity, different targets and indicators. Using the proportion of preventable causes, it is possible to separate the regions into groups with different ratios of death determinants, which, therefore, require different approaches to reduce mortality.
Keywords: avoidable mortality; preventable causes of death; health care system; the regional heterogeneity of mortality; Russia
Journal: Stanovnistvo
Pages: 1-23
Volume: 49
Issue: 2
Year: 2011
Month: December
DOI: 10.2298/STNV1102001S
File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/138
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File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/138/132
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Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:49:y:2011:i:2:id:138

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Marko Filipović
Author-Workplace-Name: Department of Social Geography, Geographical Institute "Jovan Cvijić" SASA, Belgrade (Serbia)
Title: Vesna Lukić "Population Change and Functional Structure of Pančevo"
Publication-Status: Published
Abstract: Nema.
Journal: Stanovnistvo
Pages: 115-119
Volume: 49
Issue: 2
Year: 2011
Month: December
DOI: 10.59954/stnv.241
File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/241
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File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/241/225
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Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:49:y:2011:i:2:id:241

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Vesna Lukić
Author-Workplace-Name: Demographic Research Centre, Institute of Social Sciences, Belgrade (Serbia)
Title: Commuting in the Settlement System of Serbia
Publication-Status: Published
Abstract: Territorial organization of settlement system is the framework for internal migration flows. The purpose of this paper is to consider the relation between commuting and the settlement structure. Commuting patterns and characteristics of commuters in Serbia are relatively unknown and insufficiently researched, and as such, can not be adequately used in creation of development strategies and public policies which would include commuters' issues. It has been emphasized the importance of reserach of commuting ties between different settlements and also pointed out in which way commuting flows could be researched and analyzed by using existing sources, due to better understanding of connections between migrations and settlements. Commuting patterns of workers in Serbia and interrelations between the scope and the structure of commuting flows, as well as the type and population size of settlements in Serbia have been examined. Apart from territorial dimension of commuting phenomenon, socio-economic component of commuting population has also been considered. The use of costumised tabulations from 2002 Census have enabled us to examine all types of commuting and emphasise dominant directions of commuting flows of economically active population according to gender, level of education and sector of economic activity, within the settlement hierarchy. Workers have been classified into seven groups according to place of residence and place of work. The findings reveal there is a clear connection between the hierarchy structure and commuting patterns in Serbia. Further, we find some evidence that only 9,5% of workers – commuters have been working in the settlement of the same population size and type such as their residing settlement. Commuting flows within Serbia’s settlement system point out to certain variations when looking at individual categories of population, but it can be concluded that there is general trend of commuting "upwards" within the hierarchy of settlements.
Keywords: commuting; economically active population; settlement system; Serbia
Journal: Stanovnistvo
Pages: 25-50
Volume: 49
Issue: 2
Year: 2011
Month: December
DOI: 10.2298/STNV1102025L
File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/125
File-Function: Abstract page
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File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/125/119
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Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:49:y:2011:i:2:id:125

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Drinka Peković
Author-Workplace-Name: High Business School of Vocational Studies, Novi Sad (Serbia)
Title: Effects of Migration Flows on the Host Country Labour Market Following the 2004 EU Enlargement
Publication-Status: Published
Abstract: This paper examines the effects of migration flows on unemployment, employment probabilities and native wages. The analysis contains the evaluation of migration effects of labour from Central and Eastern European countries which became European Union member states in 2004, on old member's labour market. Particular emphasis was placed on evidence of the migration flows impact from the new EU member states on the labour market performances in the United Kingdom and Ireland, the countries which did not restrict the access of new member immigrants to their labour markets. The analysis was realized for the period of 2004 to 2008 when the migration inflow was the largest.
 The empirical literature suggests that the migration effects on unemployment and employment probabilities of natives are very small. The young and low skilled native workers are more affected by migration flows than other groups of workers. Also, most empirical studies show small negative wage effects of immigration. Although the results of public researches and econometric studies have shown the modest potential labour migration flows from new member states and the small potential effects on EU-15 labour market, twelve out of fifteen old member states decided to apply transitional arrangements.
 The evidence presented in the report of the European Commission pointed out positive EU labour market impact of modest inflow of immigrants from new member states. Sectoral and skill composition of immigrants from new member states suggests their complementary role on EU labour market. The majority of immigrants from new member states are men, aged between 18 and 34, medium-level of education. Most immigrants have been employed in service sector, manufacturing and construction. The high employment rate of immigrants from new member states (78%) and low unemployment rate (6%) in the post-enlargement period have confirmed positive migration impact on EU labour market performances. The unemployment effects of migration have been smaller than projected. The migration flows from new member states have resulted in negligible increase in EU-15 unemployment rate by 0.02-0.04% and decrease in native wages by 0.08%.
 In the second part of this paper the migration impact on labour market of the United Kingdom and Ireland is examined. The selective application of transitional measures across EU resulted in substantial diversion of migration flows toward the United Kingdom and Ireland. In the period of 2004-2008, Ireland accepted 448.000 immigrants from new member states and in the United Kingdom 926.000 immigrants are registered in WRS, eight times more than was projected. However, the large migration flows from new member states did not result in substantial disturbances on the labour market. In Ireland the evidence for the existence of displacement native workers by immigrants was found in the hotel and restaurants sector and in manufacturing sector, but there was no consequence in increase of native unemployment. The high economic growth rate in Ireland and the United Kingdom caused the absence of unemployment effects of migration and the appearance of small positive effects on native wages. Research results show that a one percent increase the share of immigrants from new member states in labour force causes negligible increase in native wages by 0,0013% in Ireland and 0,246% in the United Kingdom.
Keywords: migration flows; labour market; European Union; unemployment; wage
Journal: Stanovnistvo
Pages: 51-71
Volume: 49
Issue: 2
Year: 2011
Month: December
DOI: 10.2298/STNV1102051P
File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/126
File-Function: Abstract page
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File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/126/120
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Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:49:y:2011:i:2:id:126

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Vladimir Nikitović
Author-Workplace-Name: Demographic Research Centre
Title: Functional Data Analysis in Forecasting Serbian Fertility
Publication-Status: Published
Abstract: A new approach, combining functional data analysis and principal components decomposition in order to forecasting demographic rates, introduced recently by Hyndman and his associates, is tested on official data series of Serbian age-specific fertility rates available for period 1950-2009. The original concept of the method with its extensions and improvements is applied to region-specific data for the country (Central Serbia and Vojvodina). One of the most important benefits of the method reflected in confirmation that is essentially to model and forecast more than one principal component in order to adequately address sources of variation in fertility. Similarly, modelling and forecasting fertility rates with regards to age and not total fertility rates shows how important it is for the recognized tendency of postponing childbearing in Serbia to be included in coefficients of functional time series. Besides, the method is based completely on evaluation of historical data, without subjective views of forecasters having to be taken into account. Coherent functional product-ratio forecasts of two regions proved to be highly convergent on the long-term not allowing for outliers to contaminate the forecast.
Keywords: population forecasting; functional approach; fertility; Serbia
Journal: Stanovnistvo
Pages: 73-89
Volume: 49
Issue: 2
Year: 2011
Month: December
DOI: 10.2298/STNV1102073N
File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/127
File-Function: Abstract page
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File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/127/121
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Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:49:y:2011:i:2:id:127

Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0
Author-Name: Mia Marić
Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Education in Sombor, University of Novi Sad, Sombor (Serbia)
Title: Socio-Demographic Factors and Substance Use in Adolescence
Publication-Status: Published
Abstract: The emergence of risky behavior is characteristic in adolescence. Of all forms of risky behavior in adolescence, the use of psychoactive substances – cigarettes, alcohol and illegal psychoactive substances particularly stand out, because of the frequency and degree of prevalence of use, and because of the impact that they have on youth development in this sensitive stage of growing up. Unfortunately, today we are witnessing the fact that such behavior in adolescents has gained an increasingly epidemic character mainly due to the characteristics of the social context in which young people are growing up.
 The main objective of this research, conducted in the framework of the doctoral dissertation of the author, was determining relations between relevant socio-demographic factors: gender, age, school success, financial status and place of residence of respondents, with the appearance and intensity of use of three types of psychoactive substances – cigarettes, alcohol and illegal psychoactive substances among the general population of adolescents. The sample represents non-clinical young population, and it consists of 529 adolescents, students of the 2nd and 4th class of secondary school (17 and 18 years old). The data was collected by using Scale use of PAS (psychoactive substances) in adolescents, which was designed for the purpose of this research, as well as using a set of questions intended for the registration of socio-demographic variables. Respondents filled in questionnaires in groups, during the school lessons.
 The data show a relationship between the three studied socio-demographic variables with the occurrence and degree of use of psychoactive substances in the adolescence period, such as gender, age and school success of the respondents. As regards gender of respondents associated with the occurrence and degree of alcohol and illegal substance use in adolescents, male adolescents more likely use alcohol and illegal psychoactive substances. Age of respondents associated with the use of all three types of psychoactive substances in adolescence, found that older adolescents were more likely to use cigarettes, alcohol and illegal psychoactive substances. School success of the respondents is associated with the occurrence and degree of use of all three tested categories of psychoactive substances – cigarettes, alcohol and drugs, and the obtained findings indicate that with the decline in school success, the prevalence of all three types of psychoactive substances increases in adolescence. Besides the theoretical significance, the applicability of the findings is reflected in the field of primary prevention and health protection of youth.
Keywords: adolescence; socio-demographic factors; psychoactive substances; cigarettes; alcohol; illegal substances
Journal: Stanovnistvo
Pages: 91-113
Volume: 49
Issue: 2
Year: 2011
Month: December
DOI: 10.2298/STNV1102091M
File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/128
File-Function: Abstract page
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File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/128/122
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Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:49:y:2011:i:2:id:128