Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Vladimir Nikitović Author-Workplace-Name: Demographic Research Centre Title: Stochastic Forecast of the Population of Central Serbia Based on Empiric Forecast Errors Publication-Status: Published Abstract: Based on the example of the forecast of the population of Central Serbia for the 2005-2032 period, the basic probabilistic concept in forecasting the trends of demographic components of population development have been presented. The stochastic element of forecast is based on the analysis of empirical forecast errors of corresponding indicators of demographic development. The analysis frameworks were forecasts of official bureaus of statistics published during the second half of the 20th century. The statistical distribution of probability for chosen forecast parameters were formed around so called middle variant of corresponding indicators in the current national forecast of population, published by the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia (SORS) for the period 2002-2032. The basic characteristics of the probabilistic approach of forecasting were presented through mutual comparison of the main methodological assumptions, namely though comparative demographicstatistical valorization of results with traditional deterministic concept, represented by forecasts of RSB. The stochastic forecast of the population of Serbia clearly indicated to the key advantages of this approach: methodological consistency in quantifying demographic indicators as well as the possibility of transparent usage of results in numerous aspects of social planning. In this way the significance of the necessity for the elaboration of a studious national forecast of the population of Serbia completely based on a stochastic basis has been stressed, regardless of the still-present restrictions in the development of the probabilistic approach. Keywords: stochastic forecast; empiric projection errors; Central Serbia Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 7-31 Volume: 45 Issue: 1 Year: 2007 Month: November DOI: 10.2298/STNV0701007N File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/159 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/159/150 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:45:y:2007:i:1:id:159 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Dušan Radovanović Author-Workplace-Name: Demographic Research Centre, Institute of Social Sciences, Belgrade (Serbia) Title: Vojin Šulović, Tihomir Vejnović "How to Increase Fertility in Serbia" Publication-Status: Published Abstract: No abstract. Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 97-101 Volume: 45 Issue: 1 Year: 2007 Month: November DOI: 10.59954/stnv.276 File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/276 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/276/250 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:45:y:2007:i:1:id:276 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ivan Marinković Author-Workplace-Name: Demographic Research Centre, Institute of Social Sciences, Belgrade (Serbia) Title: Statistical Overview of Women and Men in the World Publication-Status: Published Abstract: No abstract. Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 103-115 Volume: 45 Issue: 1 Year: 2007 Month: November DOI: 10.59954/stnv.277 File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/277 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/277/251 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:45:y:2007:i:1:id:277 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mirjana Rašević Author-Workplace-Name: Demographic Research Centre, Institute of Social Sciences, Belgrade (Serbia) Author-Name: Katarina Sedlecki Author-Workplace-Name: Republic Center for Family Planning, Institute for Health Care of Mother and Child "Dr. Vukan Čupić", Belgrade (Serbia) Title: Gynecologists and the Abortion Issue in Serbia Publication-Status: Published Abstract: Traditional inefficient contraception, incorporated to a large extent in the system of values, has become a natural part of sexual relations in Serbia and represents a rational preventive choice from the individual standpoint. However, when pregnancy is unwanted or cannot be accepted out of any reasons, abortion is used as a resort. For this reason there is a long history of a large number of abortions in Serbia. Research findings in our country identify the following, as the most important factors for not accepting modern values in this sphere: traditional contraception and abortion have a firm social confirmation; there is a trans-generational transfer of psychological resistance towards the use of combined oral contraception pills and intrauterine devices; sexual education has never become a natural way of growing up in the family, nor is a constituent part of school programs and that distinct obstacles of various nature exist regarding contraception availability. A developed network of various types of family planning counseling is an important determinant of the accessibility of contraceptive means and methods. There are, however, numerous conditions which have to be fulfilled in order for the contraception counseling services to function properly. Among them, motivated personnel who acquired general and specific knowledge for work in this field are an especially important prerequisite. This theoretical assumption opens the question –whether gynecologists represent an important factor of slow transition of birth control in Serbia? We searched for the answer in the research analyses obtained through two in-depth surveys which either had to do with this theme or tried to determine the knowledge, attitude and practice of gynecologists. The first research, regarding the determination of the causes for a large number of abortions in our country, was directed towards women who decided on abortion. Gynecologists were the target group in the second research which was KAP type.  The results of both researches clearly indicate that gynecologists, generally observed, contribute to maintaining the abortion culture and slow transition of birth control from the use of traditional contraception to reliance on modern contraception means and methods in Serbia. Namely, a significant number of gynecologists in our country are at variance with the principals of modern family planning. Their knowledge, attitudes and practice relevant for individual contraceptive choices are insufficient, conservative, and inadequate. Thus, there is a necessity for special education of doctors, especially gynecologists, at all levels from the basic studies, through specialists ones, to special target courses, seminars, symposiums and conferences. Knowledge acquisition, as the basic element of consciousness, can affect formation of standpoints, motivation, promote responsibility and create the requirement for promoting a different system of values and philosophy of living in the sphere of reproductive health. Keywords: reproductive health; gynecologists; Serbia Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 33-45 Volume: 45 Issue: 1 Year: 2007 Month: November DOI: 10.2298/STNV0701033R File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/160 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/160/151 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:45:y:2007:i:1:id:160 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ankica Kuburović Author-Workplace-Name: Demographic Research Centre, Institute of Social Sciences, Belgrade (Serbia) Title: Gender Inequality on the Example of Socio-Demographic Structures of Belgrade Population Publication-Status: Published Abstract: An analysis of demographic characteristics from the gender perspective represents a contribution to enlightening the social relations between female and male population in Belgrade. Gender specificity and explicitness of socio-demographic structures indicate to different positions and statuses of the female and male populations. There are more females than men in the total population of the capital city of Serbia. The sex imbalance of age groups is determined by gender differences in the number of born boys and girls, in migration characteristics and in the level of mortality. The male population is greater in the age group up to 20 years old, while the female population is more numerous among the middle-aged and older generations. Gender differences in marital structure, level of education and economic activities cannot be reduced only to demographic limits. A larger rate of married persons among the males in relation to female population is determined by the different behavior in view of remarriage in case of divorce or death of partner. Women are widowed or divorced more often than men, which can be interpreted as a less favorable position in everyday functioning, especially when the women have small or school-age children, as well as in the case of older women. Gender differences in the level of education of Belgrade population are not exceptionally pronounced and are a consequence of unfavorable positions of older women to a certain degree. Differences in economic activity, among other things, are determined by uneven utilization of female and male work force. The rate of economic activity is greater in the male population, and the coefficient of economic dependency in the female population. The gender difference in the rate of supported persons among the work capable population increases the unfavorable social position of women. The characteristics of socio-demographic structures of female and male population of the city of Belgrade vary by areas. The manifestation of gender differences can be connected with demographic and sociological specificities of the proper and wider city region. The rate of divorced women in Belgrade proper is especially marked as well as the rate of supported persons in the female population in Belgrade suburbs. Imbalance in the education level between women and men is less distinct than the differences in educational structures by regions with population of both sexes. Keywords: gender inequality; demographic structures; Belgrade; 2002 census Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 47-77 Volume: 45 Issue: 1 Year: 2007 Month: November DOI: 10.2298/STNV0701047K File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/161 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/161/152 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:45:y:2007:i:1:id:161 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Bojana Balon Author-Workplace-Name: Center for Legal Research, Institute of Social Sciences, Belgrade (Serbia) Title: Gender Sensitive Statistics as a Prerequsite for Democratization of a Society Publication-Status: Published Abstract: The author analyzes statistical data on position of women in the EU and Serbia, which confirm that women in the EU, as well as in Serbia, are insufficiently represented in decision-making processes, are on average better educated then men, work more hours per day but that they on average earn less then men. Statistical Office of Republic of Serbia has published in 2005 a brochure Women and men in Serbia in which gender sensitive data were published in a coherent way and also data that they gather but do not represent in regular publications, or they do, but disorderly and not systematically. By publishing this brochure it was proved that there is interest and the need to better collect gender sensitive statistical data. Nevertheless, the brochure does not represent a radical breakthrough in methodology of data collection and analysis of new areas in statistics. There are still many "black holes" that Serbia will have to fill in if it wants to respond to its international obligations regarding reporting on position of women to international organizations and various bodies. This is why the author also represented gender sensitive categories which are gathered and published in Germany, Norway and Slovenia – a country where statistics is based on similar grounds which were built in former Yugoslavia and in short time progressed to European standards, proving that progress is possible, if there is political will. Keywords: gender sensitive statistics; inequality; women Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 79-95 Volume: 45 Issue: 1 Year: 2007 Month: November DOI: 10.2298/STNV0701079B File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/162 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/162/153 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:45:y:2007:i:1:id:162