Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Miladin Kovačević Author-Workplace-Name: Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, Belgrade (Serbia) Title: The Weak Points of Statistical and Demographic Analyses in Estimations of War Victims in Bosnia and Herzegovina in the Period 1992-1995 Publication-Status: Published Abstract: In the political and war crisis which embraced Bosnia and Herzegovina in the spring of 1992 with an end of war hostilities in the autumn of 1995 when the "Dayton Peace Agreement" emerged (November 1995), a media war occurred. From the very beginning, this war had an international character. The question on the number of war victims (killed and missing) "exploded" in June of 1993, when Haris Silajdžić stated that there had been 200000 dead among the Muslims. This figure uncritically became the basis for all later media and local "empirical truths" on the number of victims. All statistical and demographic disciplines were exploited to support, if not prove, the propaganda standpoints. Objectivity was oppressed by an ugly "face of the war". Having in mind the experience of the Second World War in Yugoslavia, the question on the number of victims does not cease to be topical for decades after the end of the war. Bosnia and Herzegovina is more than a confirmation. This question seems to intervene (and in a way "feed of") with the most difficult political and international questions and court trials. ("International Court of Justice", indictment of Bosnia and Herzegovina against The Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, namely Serbia). The methodological analysis of the most important works which deal with the question of the number of victims in the Bosnian war (above all, those done by Bosnian institutes and authors) indicate the "mistakes" made by the character of these works (propaganda). The manipulation with statistical methods and numbers is not new. Methodological and numerical traps can slip even to the most informed. The use of statistics and social science in court trials seems to show Janus's face of science: on one side the authentic "moral passion" of researchers finds great sense, and on the other side special interests strive to impose themselves through the (most refined) instrumentation of science and knowledge. (The example of Mr. Patrick Ball's testification in the trials in the Hague Tribunal is edifying as regards the question of the reasons for the Albanian exodus in the war crisis on Kosovo and Metohia in 1999). This analysis points out to the crucial defects of every statistical (and demographic) procedure of deriving the number of war victims in the absence of a comparable population census after the war (which did not take place in Bosnia and Herzegovina). The qualification of the quality of the 1991 Census in Bosnia and Herzegovina is briefly given (the author was an expert and organizational leader of all operations of last censuses in former Yugoslavia, 1991). Probably the most distinctive point, in the continuous course of deriving numbers and analysis on the number of victims in the Bosnian war so far, is the text of George Kenney published in the NY Times Magazine, April 23rd  1995. Keywords: war victims; censuses; statistics; genocide; estimation; ethnic cleansing Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 13-42 Volume: 43 Issue: 1-4 Year: 2005 Month: December DOI: 10.2298/STNV0504013K File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/178 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/178/166 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:43:y:2005:i:1-4:id:178 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mirjana Rašević Author-Workplace-Name: Demographic Research Centre, Institute of Social Sciences, Belgrade (Serbia) Title: XXV World Population Conference Publication-Status: Published Abstract: No abstract. Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 135-140 Volume: 43 Issue: 1-4 Year: 2005 Month: December DOI: 10.59954/stnv.286 File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/286 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/286/259 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:43:y:2005:i:1-4:id:286 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ankica Kuburović Author-Workplace-Name: Demographic Research Centre, Institute of Social Sciences, Belgrade (Serbia) Title: Gordana Tripković "Motherhood – The Culture Pattern of Serbs" Publication-Status: Published Abstract: No abstract. Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 157-161 Volume: 43 Issue: 1-4 Year: 2005 Month: December DOI: 10.59954/stnv.291 File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/291 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/291/265 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:43:y:2005:i:1-4:id:291 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Novka Mojić Author-Workplace-Name: The program was created by the following working group: Novka Mojić (predsednik) Author-Name: Milenko Bujas Author-Name: Branislav Đurđev Author-Name: Ana Gavrilović Author-Name: Nila Kapor-Stanulović Author-Name: Gordana Kovaček-Stanić Author-Name: Dragica Novković Author-Name: Đorđe Rakočević Author-Name: Mirjana Rašević Author-Name: Cvetanka Savić Author-Name: Sveto Šobat Title: The Program of Demographic Development of AP Vojvodina with Means for its Implementation Publication-Status: Published Abstract: No abstract. Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 169-217 Volume: 43 Issue: 1-4 Year: 2005 Month: December DOI: 10.59954/stnv.329 File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/329 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/329/302 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:43:y:2005:i:1-4:id:329 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Miroslav Rašević Author-Workplace-Name: Committee for the Study of the Population of the Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts, Belgrade (Serbia) Title: Miloš Macura Publication-Status: Published Abstract: No abstract. Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 7-9 Volume: 43 Issue: 1-4 Year: 2005 Month: December DOI: 10.59954/stnv.330 File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/330 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/330/303 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:43:y:2005:i:1-4:id:330 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Radoslav Stevanović Author-Workplace-Name: Demographic Research Centre, Institute of Social Sciences, Belgrade (Serbia) Title: Exile and Demographic Population Growth in Serbia Publication-Status: Published Abstract: The data of the 2002 population census on refugee population are analyzed in this paper with a basic aim to determine the significance (contribution) of refugee corpus in demographic development of the Republic of Serbia. By analyzing the data, it has been determined that the refugee corpus does not significantly differ from the domicile population in the basic, above all, demographic and other qualitative characteristics. The differences which can be noticed with certain (primarily socio-economic) characteristics, due to the proportionally small participation of refugee persons in relation to the total (domicile) population, could not significantly influence the total demographic, socio-economic and other characteristics of the population of central Serbia and Vojvodina. The most significant contribution of refugee (classifying the refugee corpus in the country's total population) is reflected in the mitigation of the depopulation trend, namely population growth, not only both micro-entities, but also lower, administrative-territorial entities (districts) depending on the enumerated refugee population in them. However, population projections indicate that by the middle of this century (2050) the positive effects of the basically larger number of inhabitants will be lost caused by the inflow of refugee population. Keywords: refugees; domicile population; Serbia; census; structure Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 43-60 Volume: 43 Issue: 1-4 Year: 2005 Month: December DOI: 10.2298/STNV0504043S File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/179 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/179/167 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:43:y:2005:i:1-4:id:179 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mirjana Rašević Author-Workplace-Name: Demographic Research Centre, Institute of Social Sciences, Belgrade (Serbia) Title: Demographic Prospects in the OSCE Area: Economic and Security Implications Publication-Status: Published Abstract: No abstract. Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 140-143 Volume: 43 Issue: 1-4 Year: 2005 Month: December File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/287 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/287/260 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:43:y:2005:i:1-4:id:287 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ana Gavrilović Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Philosophy in Banja Luka, Banja Luka (Bosnia and Herzegovina) Title: Edition "Family Planning" – Book VIII and IX Publication-Status: Published Abstract: No abstract. Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 161-165 Volume: 43 Issue: 1-4 Year: 2005 Month: December DOI: 10.59954/stnv.292 File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/292 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/292/266 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:43:y:2005:i:1-4:id:292 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Marina Todorović Author-Workplace-Name: Geographical Institute "Jovan Cvijic" SASA, Belgrade (Serbia) Title: Branislav Stojanović Publication-Status: Published Abstract: Nema. Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 10-11 Volume: 43 Issue: 1-4 Year: 2005 Month: December DOI: 10.59954/stnv.331 File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/331 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/331/304 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:43:y:2005:i:1-4:id:331 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Branislav Stojanović Author-Workplace-Name: Geographical Institute "Jovan Cvijić" SASA, Belgrade (Serbia) Author-Name: Gordana Vojković Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Geography, University of Belgrade, Belgrade (Serbia) Title: Urban Agglomerations on Main Development Axes as Poles of Demographic Revitalization of Serbia Publication-Status: Published Abstract: Significant geographical-demographic changes are characteristic for the region of Serbia in the second half of the 20th century, which were caused by a dynamic primary urbanization process, namely intense migrational trends between village and town. Expansion zones were formed around urban centers with total intense growth (both demographic and economic), which are mainly found in land areas of main development axes, whereby the (Sava) Danube-Morava one is the most significant. The importance of this development axis (not only in the demographic sense) is indicated by the fact that in this region (composed of districts which are located in the corridor zone) 3794.8 thousand people lived in 2002, which represents 50.6% of the population of Central Serbia and Vojvodina. Taking into consideration the territory it consists of, this zone is populated twice as much in average than the region of Serbia (without Kosovo) as a whole. Along with that, out of the five urban areas with more than 100 thousand people (large urban centers), four are located in this zone (Subotica, Novi Sad, Belgrade and Niš) and only Kragujevac is located somewhat on the outskirts in relation to it, but in its immediate proximity. Large town centers in corridor zone X concentrated as much as 41% of the Republic urban population in 2002. At the same time, a network of 32 settlements in the land area of this main development axis of Serbia which belong to the category of small and medium size towns, and which cover about 16% of the republic urban population should be added to this. Consequently this zone, as other concentrated population zones, which are formed around secondary development axes on the territory of Serbia, is identified as a region with significant population potential. For that very reason, there was an attempt in this paper to determine the role and significance of urban agglomerations on main development axes for possible demographic revitalization of Serbia. The significance of urban population arises from its quantitative and especially qualitative (structural) characteristics. This category of population of the Republic realizes significant growth (more than 10%) in the last two inter-census decades (1981-2002) regardless of the effects of demographic and socio-economic transitions and geo-political changes and their mainly negative influences as opposed to the total population of this region which realizes an apparent drop (of 3%). The drop of rural population is even more obvious (by about 16%) so its (future) role in possible demographic revitalization of Serbia is of secondary significance. As early as the seventies, the focus of main demographic processes (natality) shifted from rural to town populations. It is a fact that only the urban population of Serbia (without Kosovo) realized a positive natural growth in the nineties. However, it is interesting that large cities lost their precedence at the end of the twentieth century, namely negative natural growth appeared (Belgrade –1.5‰, Novi Sad – 0.3‰ and Subotica – 5.4‰) and in fact only small and medium towns provided natural replacement of its population. They participate with over 60% in total number of live births in urban areas, and having in mind that they are becoming the bearers of population reproduction, they can be viewed as the poles of future demographic revitalization of Serbia. Keywords: urban agglomerations; population; demographic revitalization; Serbia Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 61-79 Volume: 43 Issue: 1-4 Year: 2005 Month: December DOI: 10.2298/STNV0504061S File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/180 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/180/168 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:43:y:2005:i:1-4:id:180 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ivan Marinković Author-Workplace-Name: Demographic Research Centre, Institute of Social Sciences, Belgrade (Serbia) Title: Analysis of the Final Population Census Results – 2002 Publication-Status: Published Abstract: No abstract. Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 144-148 Volume: 43 Issue: 1-4 Year: 2005 Month: December DOI: 10.59954/stnv.288 File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/288 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/288/261 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:43:y:2005:i:1-4:id:288 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ankica Kuburović Author-Workplace-Name: Demographic Research Centre, Institute of Social Sciences, Belgrade (Serbia) Title: Smiljka Tomanović "Sociology of Childhood, Sociological Chrestomathy " Publication-Status: Published Abstract: No abstract. Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 165-168 Volume: 43 Issue: 1-4 Year: 2005 Month: December DOI: 10.59954/stnv.293 File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/293 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/293/267 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:43:y:2005:i:1-4:id:293 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Vladimir Nikitović Author-Workplace-Name: Demographic Research Centre Title: On the Problem of Population Projections Exactness at District Level: Example of Population Projections of Serbia 1970-2000 Publication-Status: Published Abstract: The quality and exactness of population projections is an important issue not only for their numerous users but for all authors of these demographic calculations who try to increase their utility value.  The question of the exactness of population projections of smaller territorial entities are especially sensitive and for smaller time periods as well, because such projections are usually used as input parameters for various forms of social planning. The results of the analysis which refers to the best documented set of projections so far of this type and which includes the whole territory of Serbia have been presented in this work. The projections are on the level of municipalities made for a thirty year period, 1970-2000, as a scientific basis of the social plan of SR Serbia. Two different variants had been prepared. One understood the linear continuation of noted tendencies from the projected period, and the other is the result of the hypothesis of the so-called cohort-component method which assumed gradual equaling of fertility namely mortality level among the municipalities within each macro-entity of Serbia, with migrations abstracted. By applying several indicators, based on relative discrepancy of projected total district population from the registered values by census, the projected mistake intensity and direction has been determined. The explication of the origin and formation of measured values had been carried out by analyzing the discrepancies of projected trends of main demographic components in relation to realized demographic development. Within the analysis, the correlation dependency level was tested between the amount of mistakes and factors which were recognized as possible sources of discrepancy. The analysis results confirmed the importance of migration components in projecting populations of smaller territorial units within the country. Although prediction of future migrational balance is connected with the greatest sources of uncertainty in comparison with the other two components of population development, especially on a long-term basis, its abstraction from the projected calculations considerably influences more the exactness of projected results regarding the district level rather than macro-entirety level. The reason lays in the generally more intensive inner-state migrational trends rather than in outer migrations, as well as in the proportionally larger migration effect on small population units in comparison with macro-entireties. One of the basic results of this analysis indicates that the greatest discrepancies of projected results, in relation to realized values, are connected precisely to districts where demographic development of migrational components had their greatest influence. Keywords: population projections; exactness; Serbia; migrations Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 81-104 Volume: 43 Issue: 1-4 Year: 2005 Month: December DOI: 10.2298/STNV0504081N File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/181 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/181/169 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:43:y:2005:i:1-4:id:181 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Goran Penev Author-Workplace-Name: Demographic Research Centre, Institute of Social Sciences, Belgrade (Serbia) Title: Migrations, Crises and Recent Conflicts in the Balkans Publication-Status: Published Abstract: No abstract. Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 149-152 Volume: 43 Issue: 1-4 Year: 2005 Month: December DOI: 10.59954/stnv.289 File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/289 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/289/263 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:43:y:2005:i:1-4:id:289 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Nada Novaković Author-Workplace-Name: Center for Sociological Research, Institute of Social Sciences, Belgrade (Serbia) Title: Theories on the Beginnings and Structure of Joint-families ("Zadruga") Publication-Status: Published Abstract: In this paper the author has a critical standpoint toward the most known theories on joint family communities. The works of the up-to-now called Yugoslav authors were put in the foreground. The works of foreign authors were placed after. They were classified by a general criterion, by how the authors saw the origins of this form of family. The comprehension of the basic characteristics depends, as a rule, on that, as well as the elements structure, changing processes, adjustment to new conditions and extinction of the joint family community. The first part of this article is devoted to theories about family communities as an institution of the Slavs. In this way its origin is connected with elements of a certain ethnic community. The range and consequences of such beliefs are suggested. The second part is reserved to explaining the family community as an institution which appeared in feudalism. It is a consequence of the tax system role. With its termination, the communities fell apart. This kind of social development determination and this type of family is proven to be ahistorical. It is predominantly stressed that the authors neglected that feudalism was a class society and overemphasized the force factor significance. The third part deals with theories which believe joint-family communities as an institution which arose in the transition from tribal to class society. These researchers stress that it is a general, historically determined conditioned form, which originated before class society and terminated with its development. Elements of its structure are especially important, as well as methods of its transformation in new conditions and termination processes. The essence of this belief is the following: a joint-family is a general historical form of family organization which arose in the transition from tribal to class society. The most important characteristics are: 1) blood relationship among men members; 2) common property; 3) undeveloped division of labor, and plain peoples work is the most important for its survival; 4) democratic control; and 5) it is not just mere gathering of simple families; it is based on kinship, origin and precedes monogrammed families. Keywords: family communities – zadruga; kinship; division of labor; common property; tax system Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 105-134 Volume: 43 Issue: 1-4 Year: 2005 Month: December DOI: 10.2298/STNV0504105N File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/182 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/182/170 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:43:y:2005:i:1-4:id:182 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Branislav S. Đurđev Author-Workplace-Name: University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Sciences - Department of Geography, Tourism and Hotel Management, Novi Sad (Serbia) Author-Name: Milan Cvetanović Author-Workplace-Name: University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Sciences - Department of Geography, Tourism and Hotel Management, Novi Sad (Serbia) Title: Third Simposium "Academician Berislav Beta Berić": State and Prospects of Vojvodina Province Population and its Neighbouring Regions Publication-Status: Published Abstract: No abstract. Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 152-155 Volume: 43 Issue: 1-4 Year: 2005 Month: December DOI: 10.59954/stnv.290 File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/290 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/290/264 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:43:y:2005:i:1-4:id:290