Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jean-Paul Sardon Author-Workplace-Name: National Institute of Demographic Studies - INED, Paris (France) Title: Mortality Prediction and Demographic Ageing Publication-Status: Published Abstract: Since 1970 age at death has much increased. This is greatly due to quick diminishing of old age mortality rates and sheds a new light on the analysis of the probable and possible variations to be expected regarding mortality. Projected numbers of elderly people depend a great deal on the choices made regarding future mortality. When comparing forecasted hypothetical mortality with recent actual achievements it is obvious that a certain amount of pessimism prevails in the forecasts. This prompts us to show greater boldness when forecasting. However, will the present rise in life expectancy, especially at higher ages, continue at the same pace or will it tend to reach its zenith (the biological limit of human life) and when? According to some experts, we are already approaching the limits of average human longevity, whereas for others, scientific progress will amply enable us to push back the age of 85 years determined by the former group. Improvement in the understanding of the multifactorial process of ageing will feed the debate but the economic, social and behavioural constraints of lengthning life spans should not be overlooked. Nevertheless and whatever age limit is set to define elderly people, based on a fixed or a varying age, as the age at which remaining life expectancy is constant, a sharp increase in numbers of elderly people is to be expected. Keywords: mortality; mortality prediction; life expectancy; demographic ageing Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 7-28 Volume: 38 Issue: 1-4 Year: 2000 Month: January DOI: 10.2298/STNV0004007S File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/208 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/208/195 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:38:y:2000:i:1-4:id:208 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Zoran Avramović Author-Workplace-Name: Institute for Pedagogical Research, Belgrade (Serbia) Title: Population Policy in Highschool Textbooks Publication-Status: Published Abstract: No abstract. Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 151-164 Volume: 38 Issue: 1-4 Year: 2000 Month: January DOI: 10.59954/stnv.320 File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/320 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/320/293 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:38:y:2000:i:1-4:id:320 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Miloš Marjanović Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Law, University of Novi Sad, Novi Sad (Serbia) Title: Milovan Mitrović: "Serbian Village. Contribution to the Sociology of Traditional Serbian Society" Publication-Status: Published Abstract: No abstract. Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 179-184 Volume: 38 Issue: 1-4 Year: 2000 Month: January DOI: 10.59954/stnv.324 File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/324 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/324/297 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:38:y:2000:i:1-4:id:324 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Goran Penev Author-Workplace-Name: Demographic Research Centre, Institute of Social Sciences, Belgrade (Serbia) Title: Basic Demographic Indicators for European Countries (for 1990 and 1997) Publication-Status: Published Abstract: No abstract. Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 195-199 Volume: 38 Issue: 1-4 Year: 2000 Month: January DOI: 10.59954/stnv.337 File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/337 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/337/310 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:38:y:2000:i:1-4:id:337 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Gil Bellis Author-Workplace-Name: National Institute of Demographic Studies - INED, Paris (France) Author-Name: Alain Parant Author-Workplace-Name: National Institute of Demographic Studies - INED, Paris (France) Title: Extension of Life Expectancy and Contribution to the Increase of Death of Genetic Origin Publication-Status: Published Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the consequences of the human ageing on the frequency of genetic diseases. Taking the exemple of the Huntington disease, we try to evaluate the expected increase in the number of persons affected in France, until the year 2020, based on demographic data and population projections. Because of the frequency of the gene responsible of this particular pathology, the number of cases is expected to raise according to increase in health expectancy and the future growth of aged population. Population ageing seems responsible of the appearance of endogenous diseases which are often provoking invalidity. Keywords: mortality; life expectancy; genetic diseases; Huntington disease Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 29-40 Volume: 38 Issue: 1-4 Year: 2000 Month: January DOI: 10.2298/STNV0004029B File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/209 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/209/196 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:38:y:2000:i:1-4:id:209 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mirjana Rašević Author-Workplace-Name: Demographic Research Centre, Institute of Social Sciences, Belgrade (Serbia) Title: UN Meeting "Generation and Gender: Research into their Behaviour and Quality of Life" Publication-Status: Published Abstract: No abstract. Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 165-169 Volume: 38 Issue: 1-4 Year: 2000 Month: January DOI: 10.59954/stnv.321 File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/321 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/321/294 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:38:y:2000:i:1-4:id:321 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Milka Bubalo Author-Workplace-Name: University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Sciences - Department of Geography, Tourism and Hotel Management, Novi Sad (Serbia) Title: Matica Srpska, Proceedings for Social Sciences "Symposium on Demographic Development of Vojvodina" Publication-Status: Published Abstract: No abstract. Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 185-188 Volume: 38 Issue: 1-4 Year: 2000 Month: January DOI: 10.59954/stnv.325 File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/325 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/325/298 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:38:y:2000:i:1-4:id:325 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Christophe Bergouignan Author-Workplace-Name: IEDUB, University Montesquieu-Bordeaux IV, Institute of Demographic Studies, Bordeaux (France) Title: Elderly Dependence. Longitudinal Approach to Risk Factors Publication-Status: Published Abstract: The evolution of elderly dependence may be seen as a bunch of events sequences. This global approach by cohort, leads to a chain of conditionnal risks. Their scale is function of some main events and several variables which value is stable after 65 years old. Some of those main events are called endogeneous (steps of dependence evolution for example) because the probability of their occurrence grows with the occurrence of an earlier studied event and some others are called exogeneous (transformations of matrimonial status for example) because the probability of their occurrence is a priori independent of an earlier studied event. In that way, all exogeneous phenomenon is supposed to be risk factor to an endogeneous phenomenon, and several endogeneous phenomena are supposed to be risk factors to other endogeneous phenomena. The suggested system forms a dynamic resonance between risks scale and their realization, leading elderly to the largest dependence. The associated growth of vulnerability and dependence is patterned considering all cares which adequation is estimated with their ability to curb the autonomy loss process. Demographic analysis toolkits are a way to build a network of stacked probabilities tables which are functions of time flown since exogeneous or endogeneous studied events and potential cares have occured. The subdivision of cohorts along exogeneous variables which value is stable after 65 years old, gives them the best homogeneity attainable. The determination of datas required for this work is disputed considering the essential exactness, the delay before the first results, the continuously of observation and the costs of collection. Qualities of the different type of surveys conceivables (retrospective or prospective) and their sample base are examinated. Abilities of the use of large admistration data bases and the conditions for extrapolations beyond the population of aged registred in those files, are also considered. Then some criteria to form information systems about elderly dependence and its factors are suggested. Keywords: elderly; dependence; responsibility and care; longitudinal approach Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 41-57 Volume: 38 Issue: 1-4 Year: 2000 Month: January DOI: 10.2298/STNV0004041B File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/210 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/210/197 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:38:y:2000:i:1-4:id:210 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Goran Penev Author-Workplace-Name: Demographic Research Centre, Institute of Social Sciences, Belgrade (Serbia) Title: International Conference "Changes in the 1990s and the Demographic Future of the Balkans" Publication-Status: Published Abstract: No abstract. Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 169-173 Volume: 38 Issue: 1-4 Year: 2000 Month: January DOI: 10.59954/stnv.322 File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/322 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/322/295 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:38:y:2000:i:1-4:id:322 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mirjana Bobić Author-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Philosophy, University of Belgrade, Belgrade (Serbia) Title: Mirjana Rašević (editor): "Women and Fertility in Kosovo and Metohia" Publication-Status: Published Abstract: No abstract. Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 188-194 Volume: 38 Issue: 1-4 Year: 2000 Month: January DOI: 10.59954/stnv.327 File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/327 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/327/300 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:38:y:2000:i:1-4:id:327 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Boško Mijatović Author-Workplace-Name: Economic Institute, Belgrade (Serbia) Title: On Microeconomic Theory of Fertility Publication-Status: Published Abstract: A review of the microeconomic theory of fertility according to the tradition of Gary Becker is given in the text. The static model is presented in the first part, the dynamic in the second, and the third part deals with decision making within the family on the basis of the theory of games. The microeconomic theory of fertility offers a contribution to the understanding of fertility in two ways: the first is the theoretical-methodological standpoint that birth is the outcome of decision making on the level of the individual, along with their maximizational behavior; the second is the involvement of economic variables among the factors which explain births. Economists deeply believe that individualistic, rational and maximizational behavior of the individual is an imperative basis for considering human reactions and that it is a methodological approach which is superior to the alternative. This approach to social phenomena, without reducing complex motives of the individual (and family) to exclusively economic ones, finds a wide response in other social sciences, among them and in demography. Not only is the technical, formal elegancy and refined approach in question, but also strong insights into the real behavior of people. On the other hand, the strength of the influences of economic factors on birth is always susceptible to discussions, just as any other empirical question. This influence certainly exists, and economists are, perhaps inclined to impute greater significance to it than what is realistic.  Keywords: fertility; microeconomic theory of fertility Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 59-78 Volume: 38 Issue: 1-4 Year: 2000 Month: January DOI: 10.2298/STNV0004059M File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/211 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/211/198 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:38:y:2000:i:1-4:id:211 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Mirjana Rašević Author-Workplace-Name: Demographic Research Centre, Institute of Social Sciences, Belgrade (Serbia) Title: European Population Conference "Unity in Diversity" Publication-Status: Published Abstract: No abstract. Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 173-177 Volume: 38 Issue: 1-4 Year: 2000 Month: January DOI: 10.59954/stnv.323 File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/323 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/323/296 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:38:y:2000:i:1-4:id:323 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Ana Gavrilović Author-Workplace-Name: Public Enterprise "Službeni glasnik", Belgrade (Serbia) Title: The Role of Local Self-Management in the Realization of the System of Social Care of Children Publication-Status: Published Abstract: Local self-management, in its contemporary meaning, arose in the time modern state was created, at the transition from feudalism into capitalism. In the nineteenth and twentieth century, local self-management, in Europe above all, became a part of the uniform system of state government which had the following characteristics: the existence of proper territories, organizational independence of local institutions, the existence of certain financial and normative independence and the rights of citizens to freely choose in it a representative body or to directly decide on important matters of interest for the local community. The development of local self-management in our country has its roots as early as the Turkish rule, in the existence of principalities, at the end of the eighteenth century. In modern times, by the Constitution of the Republic of Serbia from 1990, a single-level local self-management was established and within it special decisions for cities. The district is the basic unit of local self-management in Serbia which has two kinds of jurisdiction: self-management or authentic and transferred or decentralized. The system of social care of children, by which certain goals of social and population policy of the state are achieved, recognizes two kinds of affairs which local self-management can carry out: authentic and entrusted. Authentic affairs refer to the institutions for children - preschool institutions and children’s recreation centers over which local self-management has all foundation rights. Entrusted affairs of local self-management are making decisions, in the first degree, on the rights of citizens which has the characteristic of rights of general interest. In the carrying out of its authentic and entrusted affairs and authorities, local self-management takes into consideration, through the Law on social care of children and sublaw acts, the regulated norms and standards for carrying out the activities of children’s institutions and realizing the rights of citizens. Apart from authentic and entrusted affairs, local self-management has the right, according to the Law on social care of children, to determine other rights as well in the system of social care of children, a greater scope of rights and more favorable terms for realization of rights, as well as other forms of social care of children, if it provides the funds. However, this supposition can hardly be realized, due to insufficiency of funds as well as adequate organization and competent expert work. Keywords: local self-management; system of social care of children; preschool institutions Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 79-92 Volume: 38 Issue: 1-4 Year: 2000 Month: January DOI: 10.2298/STNV0004079G File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/212 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/212/199 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:38:y:2000:i:1-4:id:212 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Božidar Raičević Author-Workplace-Name: Economic Institute, Belgrade (Serbia) Author-Name: Brankica Gagić Author-Workplace-Name: Economic Institute, Belgrade (Serbia) Author-Name: Danijel Pantić Author-Workplace-Name: Economic Institute, Belgrade (Serbia) Title: System and Policy of Public Revenues in Serbia in the Function of Demographic Policy: Possibilities and Ranges - Review Publication-Status: Published Abstract: In this paper, possibilities of application of the system and policy of public revenues in Serbia have been analyzed. The basic finding is that these possibilities are fairly modest. Already for several years, modern system of direct taxation of personal income and property, corporate income, as well as, partly reformed system of sales tax has been in use, in Serbia. Significant opportunities for achievement of goals of the demographic policy exist in the proper implementation of the personal income tax, which has not been the case in practice. Potential solutions in the domain of the corporate income tax are relatively modest and indirect. Property taxation and sales tax have modest impact at the demographic policy as well. In the policy recommendations, authors have tried to offer practical solutions for the future reshaping of the taxes in order to increase their practical implementation level in achieving the goals of the demographic policy. Keywords: tax system; fiscal policy; population policy Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 93-117 Volume: 38 Issue: 1-4 Year: 2000 Month: January DOI: 10.2298/STNV0004093R File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/213 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/213/200 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:38:y:2000:i:1-4:id:213 Template-Type: ReDIF-Article 1.0 Author-Name: Jasna Milanković Author-Workplace-Name: Economic Institute, Belgrade (Serbia)Department of Population Statistics - Vital Statistics Group, Federal Bureau of Statistics, Belgrade (Serbia) Title: Retrospective Analysis of Perinatal Mortality in Belgrade in 1996 Publication-Status: Published Abstract: Through the set hypotheses and presented results of statistical analysis it was attempted to answer the question of what more could be done in our country, especially in the health sector, to decrease perinatal mortality, so as to achieve the level which some northwest European countries already have. On the basis of data of official statistics, there is still insufficient cooperation in Belgrade between departments in the same health institution, as well as between certain levels of health care, without appropriate transfer of information on the women who have just given birth, namely the new-born (pregnancy card). A lack of uniformity in the level of equipment and insufficient usage of genetic counseling offices is present. About 62% of pregnant women reports to the counseling offices for pregnant women for the first time in the first trimester, which is not sufficient. The standardization of the application of doctrinal standpoints should be achieved, especially in the diagnosis of risk factors and the provision of adequate medical documentation for transfer of information during pregnancy, labor and the condition of the newborn. Within that, it is necessary to continually provide expert advanced training of health workers in the future, in the organization of the relevant institution. The research results of biological variables of women who have just given birth, such as average age, parity, abortion and illness in her reproductive history, as well as the most common complications during delivery, showed that no significant deviation as regards this risk factor within control and risk groups. The stated data indicated that in the risk group there were somewhat more primipara, which might present an increased factor of risk for the outcome of the delivery, while there were almost the same percentage less than in the control group of the women who bore their second child. On the other hand, there were less women who previously had an abortion in the sample. Biological variables of newborns showed that in the risk group, out of the total infant deaths, 41.6% were stillborn, and 57.3% died during the first week, namely 22.6% during the first day of life. The ratio between sexes was almost identical: 44.8% of dead newborns were male and 44.4% were female sex. In the first twenty-four hours, namely in the first five hours upon birth, the mortality of male newborns was greater by about 10%. The mortality of female newborns was greater in the second day of life, by about 7% of the mortality of the male newborns of the same age. Upon reception into the maternity hospital already, normal state of the fetus was noted in only one third of the cases with these deliveries, while in two thirds death had already occurred or suffering of the fetus was present. As many as 198 or 71% of newborns were prematurely delivered. Not a single delivery was noted after term. 3.9% of the newborns had weight upto 499 grams, as many as 29.4% had exceptionally small weight (500-999 g), and another 20.8% small weight at birth (1000-1499 g). In 19.4% cases, the fetus was completely immature, while in 60.6% of the cases the delivery came between the 28th and 36th gestation weeks. As early as the first minute of birth, the lives of over 60% of the liveborn children were endangered (low apgar score). Over one half of the newborns which received the mark one or two in the first minute upon birth, died in the first seventy-two hours of life. The most critical were the first five hours upon birth, as well as the second day of life. The knowledge of the samples of seminatal mortality in Belgrade also represents a basis for further programming of health care for the mother and child on the city level. A dominant mortality sample is severe asphyxia (60%). In 13.8% of the cases, the cause of death is registered as unmarked or unknown, so the second place according to intensity is present as respiratory distress (6.9%). Multiple deliveries with seminatal mortality were present in 26.9% cases. Most of the deliveries were carried out with the "normal" position of the fetus, while 15.1% of the deliveries were pelvic, and 17.3% were carried out by some childbearing operation technique. Keywords: perinatal mortality; mortality of newborns; cause of death Journal: Stanovnistvo Pages: 119-150 Volume: 38 Issue: 1-4 Year: 2000 Month: January DOI: 10.2298/STNV0004119M File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/view/214 File-Function: Abstract page File-Format: text/html File-URL: https://stnv.idn.org.rs/STNV/article/download/214/201 File-Function: Full text File-Format: application/pdf Handle: RePEc:eto:stanov:v:38:y:2000:i:1-4:id:214