Stanovnistvo

International scientific conference "Population in post-Yugoslav countries: (dis)similarities and perspectives"

Milena Sekulić — 2024-08-20

Gender differences in cohort fertility patterns in Serbia: the role of educational gradient

Vladimir Nikitović — 2024-08-20

This paper represents the first contribution to the research of gender differences in the cohort fertility patterns in Serbia. We used the specially processed results of the 2022 Census that include one-year cohorts of women and men born in the 1940-1982 and 1940-1977 periods, respectively. Using parity progression rates, we examined the changes and gender patterns of completed cohort fertility from the perspective of educational differentials given the role of educational expansion in fertility changes in recent decades. Decomposition analysis showed that a marked increase in childlessness and the declining progression to second birth across cohorts born after 1960 is the key reason of the decline in completed fertility of both sexes. The development of the relationship between the education and fertility led to the changes in the educational differentials in fertility of both sexes, but also to a very pronounced gender gap in the patterns of these differentials. Convergence in completed fertility across different educational groups in the older cohorts of men turned to a divergence between the low-educated and the highly educated in the younger generations, resulting in a positive educational gradient in recent completed fertility of men. Negative educational gradient in completed fertility was observed across all cohorts of women, with the gap between the low- and highly educated doubled among the younger compared to the older cohorts. The development of educational differentials in childlessness across cohorts led to a gender convergence among the highly educated and divergence among the low-educated in Serbia, contrary to the process that took place in more gender egalitarian societies. The lack of convergence in the progression to second and third birth across different educational groups of both sexes, which is particularly pronounced among women, suggests that the more educated a person is, the more difficult it is for them to expand their family due to the lack of both institutional support for parenthood and gender equity within the family. The identified patterns of completed cohort fertility in Serbia confirm theoretical assumptions and findings from other countries that in the societies with more pronounced gender inequality and family support policies that are not sufficiently gender and parentally sensitive, higher opportunity costs of parenthood lead to lower fertility, and vice versa.

Examining the link: educational expansion and non-marital fertility in Croatia

Petra Međimurec — 2024-08-20

This paper studies the macro-level relationship between education and non-marital fertility in Croatia. Using vital statistics on first births from 1984 to 2021, we explored non-marital fertility trends by mothers’ education and assessed the influence of women’s educational expansion. We observed a significant increase in the proportion of non-marital births, from under 10% in the mid-1980s to over 30% by 2021. Decomposition analysis showed that behavioural changes, particularly among medium-educated women, significantly influenced the increase in non-marital fertility. This group increasingly opted for childbearing outside of marriage. High-educated women also contributed to the trend, with the behavioural changes more modest in comparison to those of medium-educated women, but amplified by an increase in their group size. Direct standardization showed that higher educational attainment among first-time mothers moderated the proportion of non-marital births, suggesting that the proportion of non-marital births could have been even higher had the educational composition remained constant at 1984 levels. The study confirmed a persistent negative educational gradient, where lower educational attainment was associated with a higher likelihood of non-marital childbearing. The results have important implications for policymakers, as discussed in the paper.

Depopulation and deep aging: the former Yugoslav and Western Balkans space between the second demographic transition and emigration

Damir Josipovič — 2024-08-20

The article introduces the tentative concept of deep aging – a label used for a situation when the overall ageing effects of the second demographic transition, due to fertility below replacement level, are topped by the excessive emigration of the fertile contingent (additional loss of active population). Deep ageing thus accelerates population decline. But the loss of fertile contingent may affect the total fertility rates and its apparent rise (TFR). Here, the tempo effect of fertility plays the decisive role. The article first assesses the demographic change in the European macroregions in the period after the fall of the Iron Curtain (1990–2020). It then analyses the changes in the area of former Yugoslavia to assess the extent of population change in the last intercensal period, 2011–2022. Building on the previous research of population loss and migration flows after the break-up of Yugoslavia, the overall population change in the region is being assessed. It is also shown that tempo distortion of fertility rates considerably affects the realistic level of fertility and that approximate completed fertility rates fell less dramatically. Since the migration data are less reliable, the analysis of intercensal change was applied to assess the migration losses across the ex-Yugoslav space. To assess the extent of deep ageing, the intercensal projection of fertile contingent was introduced. The stage of deep ageing is the most pronounced in Croatia and Serbia, especially at the younger fertile group, while the overall loss of fertile population is profound and will certainly affect the further future decrease in population. Similarly difficult demographic situation is in other post-Yugoslav countries, where only Slovenia has not yet slid into the stage of deep ageing.

Employment, gender equality and family policies: post-Yugoslav countries and the European Union

Ankica Šobot — 2024-08-20

The central question driving this study is whether and how the employment situation of women aged 20 to 49 in post-Yugoslav countries can be improved. Embracing feminist principles, the initial premise posits that gender equality is not only reflected in lower rates of women’s employment, but also in a higher share of part-time employment. Parenthood emerges as a pivotal factor influencing both the quantity and quality of women’s employment during this life stage. The analysis encompasses gender disparities, as well as variations in employment between the women with at least one child under the age of six and those without children. Data from the Labor Force Survey, from the database of the Statistical Office of the European Union are used.

In the socialist era of the former Yugoslavia, women’s full-time employment was relatively high, and the societal norm of both parents being employed was widely embraced. However, the transition to the capitalist system in the late 20^th century posed challenges for all former socialist countries, including labor market instability and a decline in women’s employment. Our examination of current employment involves a comparative approach. Slovenia stands out for its remarkably high employment rates among the younger middle-aged women with children under six (exceeding 80%). Notably, Slovenia is the only European Union member state to maintain high employment rates, while simultaneously keeping part-time employment levels relatively low. Nonetheless, gender disparity in employment among women and men without children persists,

as observed

in Croatia and Serbia. Additionally, the gender gap in part-time employment between these women and men, recorded in Slovenia, is one of the largest.

In Serbia, the employment rate of women aged 20-49 is below the EU average, with less than two-thirds employed in 2021, irrespective of parental status. Although part-time employment is not prevalent in post-Yugoslav countries, Slovenia exhibits a higher rate compared to Croatia and Serbia. While some of the most developed European countries have shown that this model can increase the employment rates of mothers with young children, feminist literature argues against it due to its adverse effects on women’s socio-economic status. A potential approach to mitigating the gender gap in employment involves facilitating more flexible working arrangements, ensuring equal access and utilization, particularly where job’s nature permits. Additionally, enhancing employment opportunities for younger middle-aged women without children is imperative.

Value of people - human capital in Serbia through the prism of educational attainment of young population

Vlasta Kokotović Kanazir — 2024-08-20

Human capital is an important determinant of individual and overall socio-economic development. In addition to economic parameters, human capital is significantly influenced by the level of formal and informal education attained. Previous research in this area has focused on formal education and the skills acquired concerning better positioning in the labor market. Accordingly, the main objective of the conducted research is to determine the state and level of educational attainment as prerequisite for the developm

ent of human capital in Serbia. This analysis is based on a set of indicators that represent the achieved educational attainment with special focus on the young population. It is conducted for the territory of Serbia, on municipal level, which enabled the categorization of municipalities according to educational attainment. Most municipalities in Serbia are characterized by insufficient educational attainment in the local context, or in general. For the purpose of the regional disparities identification, the coefficient of human capital utilization was created, in order to identify the mismatch between education attainment and labor market demand. The research shows that it is crucial to change the general perception of demographic problems and challenges, which will allow the development of applicable and more realistic public policies in the future.

Ethnic Croats in Serbia and ethnic Serbs in Croatia: demographic similarities and differences - selected aspects

Dražen Živić — 2024-08-20

The subject of research in this paper are the populations of declared ethnic Croats in the Republic of Serbia and ethnic Serbs in the Republic of Croatia in the population censuses between 2001/2002. – 2021/2022. The purpose of the research is to determine the reached level of similarities and differences in the selected dynamic and structural demographic indicators between these two minority communities, as well as in their relation to the total and majority population of the Republic of Croatia and the Republic of Serbia, with the aim of assessing their demographic sustainability in the future. The research is based on the official results of general population censuses held in Croatia in 2001, 2011 and 2021, and in Serbia in 2002, 2011 and 2022. The descriptive and comparative method will be applied in the research, and the results will be presented in aggregated analytical tables and graphs. The mentioned subject will be observed in the general dynamic demographic framework, which is extremely depopulated for both these countries and both minority populations, i.e. it is extremely unfavourable. Thus, without going into the issue of the obvious changes in the census methodologies, in the period 2001-2021 the number of the total population of Croatia was reduced by 12.7%, and the number of the total population of Serbia in the period 2002-2022 was reduced by 11.3 %. At the same time, the number of declared Croats in Serbia decreased by 44.6%, while the number of declared Serbs in Croatia decreased by 38.6%. Consequently, the relative share of Croats in Serbia decreased from 0.9% to 0.6% (by 0.3 percentage points), and of Serbs in Croatia from 4.5% to 3.2% (by 1.3 percentage points). In addition to the negative demographic dynamics of both populations (both minority and total), the observed period is also characterized by unfavourable processes in the formation of partial demographic structures, especially biological (age and gender), which, thanks to the accelerated aging of the population, is increasingly becoming a limiting factor in their long-term demographic sustainability.

Guest editors’ introduction

Ivan Marinković — 2024-08-20